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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

FXUS61 KCTP 221024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
624 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019

Windy and colder conditions with rain showers, snow showers, and
locally heavier squalls will follow behind a strong coastal
storm that brought heavy rain to the lower Susquehanna Valley. 
Improving weather is expected over the weekend with moderating 
temperatures. The next weather system is expected into early
next week.


Rain and high elevation snow will end across the far eastern
part of the CWA early this morning. Small streams in the 
Juniata and Lower Main Stem Susquehanna River Basins have
responded to the rainfall with several points cresting above
caution stage. 

Focus shifts to changing weather expected over the next 24
hours. A strong shortwave will combine with strong March sun and
cold air aloft to produce gusty winds and convective rain/snow 
showers. Locally heavier squalls (possibly containing small hail
or graupel) are possible and could be accompanied by rumbles of
thunder. Issued wind advisory for part of south central PA 
where fcst soundings and hires guidance indicates potential for 
max winds gusts around 50 mph. The most likely timing for max
gusts would be later this afternoon into early tonight as 
subsidence region moves over the area in the wake of the 
vigorous shortwave. Frequent snow showers will likely bring a 
light snow accumulation and areas of slippery travel to the 
higher elevations of the western Alleghenies through tonight.


Snow showers should end early Saturday morning followed by 
gradually subsiding winds into Saturday night. High pressure 
will provide dry wx over the weekend with temperatures trending
warmer on Sunday. Models are in decent agreement with the next
system returning light precipitation to the area late Sunday 
night into Monday.


There is growing confidence in a period of light precipitation 
on Monday. Dry weather is fcst from Monday night through late
week. Temperatures should trend colder early next week before
rebounding above average toward the end of the month.


Rain associated with coastal storm is exiting the eastern part
of the forecast area at 1030Z. Cigs have been rising across most
of the region early this morning, as a gusty northwest wind 
pulls drier air in. Latest model soundings support vfr 
conditions across the eastern half of the forecast area by 12Z. 
Further west, upsloping flow will likely yield persistent low-end
mvfr cigs this morning over the high terrain from KBFD to KJST.

A potent cold front will dive southeast across the region late
today, accompanied by snow squalls across the high terrain of
northern and western Pa and rain showers with possible thunder
across the southeast half of the state. A few dips to ifr/lifr
vsbys appear likely at KBFD/KJST and possible at KUNV/KAOO this
afternoon. Further east, temperatures should be too warm for
snow, so the threat of significant vsby reductions are low. 
Behind the front, strong/gusty northwest winds will be the main 
issue late today and this evening. Bufkit soundings support 
gusts to around 40kts during this time.


Sat...Still gusty northwest winds.

Sun...No sig wx expected.

Mon...Rain/snow/low cigs possible, mainly N and W Mtns. 

Tue...No sig wx expected.


Camp Hill/Yellow Breeches responded quickly and will crest
over FS around 8ft early this morning. We are monitoring a few
other Lower Main Stem tribs with Harper Tavern/Swatara Creek
approaching minor FS. Expect falling stages by later today.


Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ036-057>059-
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Saturday 
for PAZ024>028-033>036-056-063-064.


NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...La Corte