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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

FXUS61 KCTP 241144

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
744 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

A large area of high pressure over the Great Lakes will drift 
to the east reaching northern New England on Sunday, providing 
several days of cool-dry weather on its journey.


Night time blended imagery shows fog starting to fill the
valleys of the north, as well as some low clouds over the higher
elevations of the Laurel Highlands southward.

The fog and low clouds will burn off quickly after sunrise
leading to a bright but cool day over the forecast area. Highs
in the 70s will average well below normal for late August.

More of the same is in store tonight with comfortable sleeping
weather and little more than patchy valley fog for sensible
weather. Lows look to average about 3-6 deg below what they
should normally be.


Sunday will be a virtual carbon copy of today. Early fog will
burn off quickly leading to anther bright but cool day. Highs 
will likely be a tad warmer as the airmass modifies.


High pressure will move off to our NE by early next week. This
will set up a easterly flow into the Mid Atlantic that could
bring in some marine air/low clouds later Monday into Tuesday. I
introduced the potential for some light rain in this 
increasingly moist flow, but with little in the way of QPF.

Models are in decent accord in bringing a dying cold front
through the CWA for mid week, followed by mild and mainly dry
conditions late in the week and into next weekend. Other than
showers associated with the mid week frontal passage, we really
don't see any big rain opportunities for the next week.


12Z TAFS sent.

Isolated patch of fog east of the office.

Brief low clouds at IPT, most likely a very thin layer of clouds
or fog.

Earlier discussion below.

For the 5 AM TAF update, more in the way of mid lvl clds than I
had earlier.

Minor adjustments made to the TAF package as of 5 AM.

06Z TAFS sent.

Took fog out of the BFD fcst. Still some wind outside. Also high
pressure building into the area today, with drier air. The main
factor is sct to bkn mid level clds outside.

Overall the weekend will feature mainly VFR conditions, given
the high pressure system building into the area.

Good conditions may hold into Monday.


Sun...AM valley fog likely northern Pa.

Mon...AM valley fog possible.
Tue...AM low cigs possible. 

Wed...Showers and AM cig reductions possible.




NEAR TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...La Corte