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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCTP 201859
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
259 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will push across the state later today 
and tonight. This will bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms to central Pennsylvania this afternoon and
evening. After the low exits tonight into tomorrow, a pleasant 
and dry weekend is in store. Temperatures will trend a little 
cooler than normal for Friday and Saturday with warmer weather 
returning next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Latest 1830Z radar has a line of showers moving into the Lower
Susq and a cluster of showers making their way into and through
Clearfield county. Anomalous PWATS will keep the main threat
from these showers and storms as heavy rain with possible
flooding. The flash flood watch remains in effect through 05Z
Friday. 
 Latest HREF and HRRR runs has multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms moving through this afternoon and evening. The
last line will accompany the front which could be the strongest. 
Those should move in just before sunset, around 00Z. The
strongest storms should be through the Southeast. The actual
front continues to stall and the upper trough axis does not 
cross the entire area until early Friday morning. The residual 
showers could still contain some thunder. 
  

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Breezy and drier/less humid conditions will arrive Friday on 
the backside of the departing system.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Expect a break from the rain for 2-3 days with pleasant 
conditions through the weekend before a surge in humidity 
returns showers and storms to the forecast next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR cigs and vsbys will continue at most TAF sites, with 
periods of IFR in heavier showers. Currently MDT is IFR with
MVFR and JST. The humid and unsettled conditions will again 
bring areas of showers/tstms continuing through the evening 
hours. Best chance for a more organized line of convection will 
be early evening out ahead of the front.  Any thunderstorm or 
shower will be capable of very heavy rainfall along with local 
IFR restrictions and gusty winds. 

A low pressure area slides across PA tonight. Showers will taper
off, but lower ceilings will return to the NW including BFD 
overnight. Friday will bring improving conditions with 
widespread VFR conditions late Friday morning, generally after
15Z. 

.Outlook...

Fri...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Then VFR.

Sat-Sun...No sig wx expected.

Mon...Ceiling restrictions poss in rain showers.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Astronomical summer (solstice) begins Friday, June 21st at
1154AM EDT (1554 UTC).

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM EDT Friday for PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Ceru
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Ceru/RXR
CLIMATE...