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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCTP 250254
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1054 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through central Pennsylvania tonight and
early Tuesday. Building heights are expected across the Mid 
Atlantic region during the second half of the week. A cold front
will likely push south across the region by early next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

The lines entering central PA continue to weaken as they are
entering a cooler, more stable air mass. The ridge, though
weakening as it moves east, continues to stifle the approaching
convection. The setting sun has deprived the showers and storms
of its heating so expect these storms to continue to weaken as 
it moves through PA. Still don't rule out isolated thunder 
embedded in the line overnight. The strongest convection is 
currently south of the Mason Dixon and making its way into 
Somerset county. expect these storms to move NW into the region 
overnight. Have adjusted timing to the latest HRRR and the 
radar. However the timing is very consistent to previous 
thinking, and have only tweaked to get slightly finer timing 
using the HRRR and RAP as basis. The cold front is back in Ohio 
and will moving through the region overnight into Tuesday 
morning. not expecting any flooding as the storms are not 
training over the same region and are moving fairly fast. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Showers should be exiting the eastern part of the forecast area
early Tuesday, as cold front pushes east. Surface ridging
building into the state should translate to fair weather for the
rest of the day over most of central Pa. However, cooling temps
aloft, combined with diurnal heating, could result in a few
afternoon sprinkles across the NW mountains.

With the upper trough lifting out, the post cold frontal airmass
will be drier but not significantly cooler. Highs will range
from the mid 70s NW to mid 80s SE, which will be a few deg
either side of normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A summertime pattern will arrive right on schedule with above 
average temperatures and humid/muggy conditions to close out the
month of June. A theme of drier weather is also expected through
most of the week with just an isolated shower or thunderstorm
possible. A digging upper trough over the Northeast US will
bring the most likely period of t-storms to the area over the 
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Line of showers and storms is currently moving into eastern PA.
These storms have reached the east central TAF sites of BFD JST
and AOO. Have removed VCTS from most TAFS, the thunder along 
the lines are becoming more isolated but given that some exists 
have gone with VCTS for BFD and JST. These storms will weaken 
as they move eastward. Latest HRRR continues to bring them 
through central PA through the first half of the overnight 
period. Showers could linger though the NW into early tomorrow 
morning. MVFR cigs and vsbys are possible mainly after 09Z. BFD 
could see showers linger until around 10Z. 

MVFR cigs, with periods of IFR cigs possible at BFD and IPT,
will improve slowly until around 15Z. As the SFC mixes out
expect gusty west winds upwards of 25kts. 

.Outlook...

Wed...Scattered PM thunderstorms possible NW.

Thu...No sig wx.

Fri...Scattered PM thunderstorms possible NW.

Sat...Chance of mainly PM showers and T-storms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Ceru
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...La Corte/Ceru