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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

                            
821 
FXUS61 KCTP 260554
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
154 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather expected through midweek followed by an increasing
chance for rain showers Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will
trend warmer through late week into the 60-70 degree range on
Saturday. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Significant push of dry air (20 degree dewpoint drop) via north
wind eroding clouds and fog pockets across south central PA 
early this morning. Large area of high pressure building into 
the region will provide mainly clear skies and dry wx through
tonight. Max/min temps will be seasonably cool/below avg. for 
late March. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will drift to the north/east through midweek and
maintain dry weather on Wednesday. Milder southwest flow ahead 
of a cold front pushing through the Great Lakes will support a 
warming trend with fcst temps in the mid-upper 50s by Thursday.
The front appears to stall over northern PA Thursday night.
Latest model blend places the best chance for light rain 
showers across the northwest 1/3 of the CWA Thursday-Thursday 
night. 

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The front will retreat back slightly to the north as a warm 
front later Friday and Saturday as the northern stream trough 
races east across SE Canada, and a southern stream upr wave and 
sfc low approaches from the Central Plains and Mid Miss Valley. 
We'll see temps soar in the 60s and perhaps top 70F in some of 
the southern valleys both Friday and Sat. 

The best chance for showers comes over the weekend, when east 
coast ridge breaks down and cold front pushes across the state.

U.S. and Euro models diverge early next week with the timing,
amplification and northern extent of influence with respect to a
southern stream wave. For now, will maintain a dry forecast
unless there is appreciable northern deviation from current 
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Wave well to our south is moving rapidly eastward and the 
precip shield over south central PA is drying up as it slides 
south and east. Precip likely over by 01Z at all terminals. Only
JST is at IFR currently (23Z) but should also be clearing out 
shortly. Massive high pressure and strong subsidence will bring 
clear sky tonight with only a small chc of some fog where it has
rained the most today. The near-zero dewpoints will come in 
rapidly, though, on light but steady north wind. Thus, have not 
mentioned fog in the TAFs at this point. Wind picks up just 
slightly late tonight or Tues AM, but stays from the N. Sfc high
will be overhead Tues night and VFR should hold through Friday.

.Outlook...

Wed...No sig wx.

Thu...Mainly VFR, but SCT SHRA poss NW along WFRONT.

Fri...SHRA N, mainly VFR elsewhere.

Sat...Mainly VFR, but SCT SHRA poss NW as CFRONT nears.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Minimum relative humidity below 30 percent is expected Tuesday
and Wednesday afternoon. Given sufficient mixing, quick drops 
to below 20 percent RH are possible in some locations. Winds 
are expected to remain on the light side /less than 10mph/ 
during this period.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Lambert
AVIATION...Dangelo
FIRE WEATHER...Lambert/Ceru/Steinbugl