Preview of NWS' New Version of Forecast
This preview is not operational and should not be used for support decisions.

Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCTP 231847
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
247 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Look for dry weather with sunny days and clear cool nights this
weekend. Temperatures this afternoon will be on the cool side
but will moderate significantly on Sunday. Winds will be gusty 
during the days. Aside from light precipitation potential on 
Monday, a prolonged period of dry weather appears likely to last
until next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Quiet weather as high pressure builds. Any gusty winds this
afternoon will diminish with clear skies and cold temperatures
overnight. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Dry weather. Milder air returns aloft and will quickly mix to 
surface during the day with temperatures a good 10-15 degrees 
warmer than today. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Clouds will increase into Sunday night with the next 
frontal system possibly bringing some light precipitation to the
area by Monday morning. Model QPF trends shifted light amounts 
to the south, focusing over the southern 1/2 to 1/3 of central 
PA Monday during the day. This would favor a lower risk for 
rain/snow on the northern edge of pcpn in northern PA, where 
temperatures will be marginally cold enough to support mix. 
Precip shifts to the south with dry wx likely Monday night.
We are pretty confident in a prolonged period of dry wx this
period, as large area of high pressure dominates the regional
pattern. We are also bullish on a warming trend toward above
average temperatures starting around midweek, but will need to 
watch for potential cool-air damming. NBM does a decent job in
mitigating timing differences with pcpn associated with frontal
system around the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions this weekend, though gusty NW winds during the
afternoon hours.

An intense low pressure system over the Canadian Maritimes will
maintain gusty northwest winds across central Pa through today.
Bufkit soundings support frequent gusts in the 25-30kt range 
through early this evening. High pressure will build into the 
region this evening, causing winds to diminish. 

.Outlook...

Sun...No sig wx expected.

Mon...AM rain/low cigs possible, mainly N and W Mtns. 

Tue-Wed...No sig wx expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty northwest winds 20+ mph and minimum RHs below 30% are 
expected this afternoon. Low RH is also forecast on Sunday, but
with lighter winds. Fine fuel moisture (per coordination with 
fire wx partners) will remain above 10% through the weekend, 
and therefore no fire wx headlines are expected at this time.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Ross
NEAR TERM...Ross
SHORT TERM...Ross
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Ross
FIRE WEATHER...