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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

FXUS61 KCTP 151030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
630 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

High pressure will build into the region and usher in several 
days of dry weather with temperatures at or above normal.


After fog this morning, expect skies to become mostly sunny.


After the fog burns away (slowly) on Sunday, it should be a 
much brighter, milder day. We could even top normal maxes by 5 
degs in many places.


A weakening cold front will cross the area on Monday, bringing 
little more than low chance PoPs. It will be a warm day ahead 
of the front, with high temperatures approaching 10 degrees 
above normal across southern PA.

After that, a sprawling area of high pressure will nose down
from New England and dominate our weather for the remainder of 
the week. This should keep central PA generally dry through the
week. After a brief cool down behind the departing cold front, 
temperatures should slowly begin to moderate later in the week.


LIFR cig at IPT now and should remain there all night. Fog is 
forming/spreading throughout all the valleys of central PA. We 
should see the fog continue to expand, with most terminals 
dipping to IFR by morning. JST and BFD are the least likely
places to see IFR, so have only mentioned it in TEMPO groups

The fog is expected to burn off by 14z with mostly clear skies 
expected Sunday and light winds. A couple of very light showers
will move into wrn NY late today, and one or two of them could
dip into BFD before sunset and during the evening. But, it
should remain VFR, so have only mentioned VCSH.

A cold front with meager moisture will cross the area on Monday,
and will make additional iso/sct SHRA, but mostly over the nrn 
terminals. MVFR clouds will cover a good portion of the area on
Mon, but IFR is unlikely.


Tue-Thu...AM valley fog N. Otherwise VFR.




NEAR TERM...La Corte/Gartner
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Gartner
LONG TERM...Evanego