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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCTP 242219
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
619 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure over the Great Lakes will drift 
to the east reaching northern New England on Sunday, providing 
several days of cool-dry weather on its journey.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Bit more shallow stratocu over Central PA than anticipated this
afternoon with trough axis/cool pool lingering over surface 
high pressure area. but overall still a decent amount of
sunshine. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s will average well 
below normal for late August.

Clouds dissappear quickly with sunset starting another cool dry
night bringing comfortable sleeping weather and little more 
than patchy valley fog for sensible weather. Lows look to 
average about 3-6 deg below what they should normally be.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday will be a virtual carbon copy of today, but with a bit
less stratocu over the west. Patchy fog early will burn off 
quickly leading to another bright but cool day. Highs will be a
tad warmer as the airmass modifies. This will be followed by
another quiet night, but not quite as chilly over the northern
mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will dominate the near long term; however, a
southeast flow developing as high pressure slides east of New
England will bring low level moisture to the southeast areas
Monday night.

Models are in decent accord in bringing a dying cold front
through the CWA for mid week, followed by mild and mainly dry
conditions late in the week and into next weekend. Other than
showers associated with the mid week frontal passage, we really
don't see any big rain opportunities for the next week.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure and associated dry air mass will build southeast
from the Great Lakes, ensuring VFR conditions and light winds
through Sunday over most of central Pa. The only exception will
be in some of the river/stream valleys of central Pa, where late
night fog will form. NAMNest and LAMP guidance indicate fog will
develop around 07Z and dissipate by 13Z-14Z Sunday. KBFD, KIPT,
KAOO and KUNV are the only airfields that stand a slight chance
of vis reductions early Sunday morning. 

.Outlook...

Mon...AM low cigs/fog possible.
 
Tue...AM low cigs possible Allegheny Plateau. 

Wed...Showers and AM cig reductions possible.

Thu...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte/RXR
NEAR TERM...La Corte/RXR
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...La Corte/Tyburski
AVIATION...Fitzgerald