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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

FXUS61 KCTP 151522

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1122 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

A ridge of high pressure over Pennsylvania will slide east 
to the Mid Atlantic Piedmont tonight. Clouds will increase 
across the state late today and tonight as an area of low
pressure and its preceding warm front moves out of the 
midwest and crosses Pennsylvania Monday night. 

A large area of high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes and
southeastern Canada will build south into the region Tuesday 
and usher in several days of dry weather with temperatures at 
or above normal.


The earlier, locally dense fog throughout the valleys of 
central and northern Pennsylvania has melted away, yielding
abundant sunshine across practically all of the state.

Afternoon high temps in the 70s, to low 80s across the southeast
zones, will beat our normal highs for today by 5 degs in many 

A weak area of low pressure and shield of thick mid level clouds 
will spread gradually ESE across the region late today and 
tonight. A few very light showers will occur over the north 
late in the day. More, but scattered at worst, showers will 
occur overnight generally north of I-80. Mins in the u50s to 
m60s will be much above normal, thanks to the blanketing effect
of the clouds.


Weak low pressure will cross the area on Monday, generating many
showers. Coverage will be scattered and these may not get south
of the Turnpike. Maxes will range from 70 to 87 from N to S.


A weakening cold front will cross the area on Monday, bringing 
little more than low chance PoPs. It will be a warm day ahead 
of the front, with high temperatures approaching 10 degrees 
above normal across southern PA.

After that, a sprawling area of high pressure will nose down
from New England and dominate our weather for the remainder of 
the week. This should keep central PA generally dry through the
week. After a brief cool down behind the departing cold front, 
temperatures should slowly begin to moderate later in the week.


Clouds from an upstream wave will start to thicken over mainly 
the nrn tier of PA late today, and a couple of very light 
showers could dip into BFD before sunset or during the evening. 

However, it should remain VFR for much of the night. The cloud 
cover will probably be a benefit to the nrn mtns, keeping fog 
unlikely tonight.

A weak low pressure area and nebulous cold front with meager 
moisture will cross the area on Monday. It will make iso/sct 
SHRA, but mostly over the nrn terminals. Low-end VFR (3-5kft)
clouds will cover a good portion of the area on Mon, but IFR 
is unlikely.


Tue-Thu...AM valley fog N. Otherwise VFR.




NEAR TERM...Lambert/Gartner
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Gartner
LONG TERM...Evanego