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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCTP 232340
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
740 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Look for dry weather with sunny days and clear cool nights this
weekend. Temperatures will moderate significantly on Sunday. 
Aside from light precipitation potential on Monday, a prolonged
period of dry weather appears likely to last until next 
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Skies are clear with winds still gusting 15-25 mph. Gusty winds
will diminish with clear skies and cold temperatures overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Dry weather. Milder air returns aloft and will quickly mix to 
surface during the day with temperatures a good 10-15 degrees 
warmer than today.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Clouds will increase into Sunday night with the next 
frontal system possibly bringing some light precipitation to the
area by Monday morning. Model QPF trends shifted light amounts 
to the south, focusing over the southern 1/2 to 1/3 of central 
PA Monday during the day. Latest NAM has trended colder and has
gone with snow as the precipitation type. This is due to the
marginally cold temps on the northern edge of pcpn in northern 
PA. Have gone with snow through the north though accumulations
will be light at best. Precip shifts to the south with dry wx 
likely Monday night. We are pretty confident in a prolonged 
period of dry wx this period, as large area of high pressure 
dominates the regional pattern. We are also bullish on a warming
trend toward above average temperatures starting around 
midweek, but will need to watch for potential cool-air damming. 
NBM does a decent job in mitigating timing differences with pcpn
associated with frontal system around the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions across the region with clear skies. Winds are
beginning to slacken, and anticipate west winds under 10 knots
to be commonplace by 02z.

VFR conditions will prevail through the 00z TAF period.

A system approaching from the west will spread light precipitation
across central Pennsylvania Sunday night into Monday. Across 
the north, a rain/snow mix is anticipated, with mainly rain in 
the south.

A frontal system will press southward during Monday, shunting
precipitation to the south by Monday afternoon.

.Outlook...

Sun...No sig wx expected.

Mon...AM rain/snow. Restrictions possible, mainly northern and
western mountains.

Tue-Wed...No sig wx expected.

Thu...VFR, but with some scattered showers possible northwest

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty northwest winds 20+ mph and minimum RHs below 30% are 
expected this afternoon. Low RH is also forecast on Sunday, but
with lighter winds. Fine fuel moisture (per coordination with 
fire wx partners) will remain above 10% through the weekend, 
and therefore no fire wx headlines are expected at this time.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Ross/La Corte
NEAR TERM...Ross/La Corte
SHORT TERM...Ross
LONG TERM...Ceru/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Jung
FIRE WEATHER...Gartner