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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCTP 250744
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
344 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will move east of the region today, allowing the
approach of a wave of low pressure and its associated frontal
system. The storm will move off to our north, dragging a cold
front through the forecast area Friday. After a dry Saturday, 
the active pattern will continue with a new cold front for 
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

High pressure sliding off to our east will pave the way for a
weak wave of low pressure today.

Models differ in the extent of the rain this morning and 
afternoon. Weak warm advection will help spread light rain 
across the SWRN portion of the area this morning, with the light
rain increasing in coverage for the second half of the day. 

It will be relatively mild in the 60s region-wide.

Mild conditions will continue overnight with periods of rain  
as a stronger storm begins winding up to our west. Models are 
consistent in keeping us rather stable so the concern for 
convection is minimal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

The storm will continue to deepen as it moves through western
NY, dragging a cold front through the CWA during the daylight
hours. There are minor timing differences with the front, but
all the near term deterministic models are hinting at some sort
of wave forming on the front down over VA moving up over ERN PA.
It pretty much assures a wet day with a widespread .25" - .75" 
of rain across the region.

Highs in the 50s and 60s will still be pretty close to normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...


Sat will bring a new shot of cooler air and breezy conditions 
followed by another shortwave/surface low tracking across the 
state on Sunday.

The GFS is weaker and further south with its storm, while the 
EC and Canadian models take a respectable surface low through 
central PA during the day Sunday. Blended MOS POPs favored the
northern half of the region with the best chance for rain, but
confidence isn't the best. The difference between the EC and the
GFS could mean the difference between a chilly rain and a 
milder solution with the possibility of some convection.

After a dry Monday, the active pattern will continue with a new
weak wave for Tuesday. From there, the trailing front could 
stall near PA keeping the mention of showers in the forecast 
through the end of the week.

Latest guidance shows the cool shot behind the Sunday storm will
be quite chilly. The growing season has started over the SERN
1/2 of the CWA and we could be dealing with some frost issues
Monday morning. Temperatures will moderate slowly for the rest
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00z update... For the most part, VFR will continue until mid to
late afternoon on Thursday. The one potential exception could be
for a brief period around daybreak, when some light fog is
possible at KUNV and KIPT.

Lower ceilings and light rain will overspread the terminal sites
later in the day, with conditions lowering to fuel alternate or
MVFR.

Surface winds look generally light through most of Thursday (5
kt or less). SE winds may pick up a bit later in the day,
perhaps into the 5-10 kt range.  

.Outlook...

Fri...Additional restrictions possible in 
showers/thunderstorms. 

Sat...Mainly VFR.

Sun...Potential showers and restrictions.

Mon...Mainly VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...La Corte
AVIATION...Jurewicz/Ross