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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCTP 261837
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
237 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather expected through midweek followed by an increasing
chance for rain showers Thursday into the weekend. Temperatures
will trend warmer through late week into the 60-70 degree range
on Saturday, followed by a cool down as the calender flips from
March to April.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...


Clear skies and low dewpoints will continue tonight due to a 
large area of high pressure setting up over the region. The 
light northerly flow and clear skies will allow for effective
radiative cooling keeping min temps seasonably cool/below avg. 
for late March. 

Guidance continues to be too high with the dewpoints. Have had 
to adjust them down a few more degrees through the afternoon. 
MinRH values ticked lower into the 20-25% range and could go 
even lower. See fire wx section for more details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will drift to the north/east through midweek and
maintain dry weather. Southerly winds tomorrow will allow for
temperatures to increase to the 50s. Dry weather will continue
with RH/s in the 20s. Winds however will be fairly light. 
 Skies will continue to clear through Wednesday. 


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Milder southwest flow ahead of a cold front pushing through the
Great Lakes will support a warming trend with fcst temps in the
mid-upper 50s by Thursday. The front appears to stall over 
northern PA Thursday night. Latest model blend places the best 
chance for light rain showers across the northwest 1/3 of the 
CWA Thursday-Thursday night. Min temps Thursday night will run 
10-15 degrees above average.

The quasi-stnry front will lift back to the north later Friday 
and Saturday, focusing rainfall axis near the lower Great Lakes.
This will also allow very mild air to surge into central PA with
max temps likely reaching the 60-70 degree range Saturday 
afternoon. The main synoptic front will eventually move through
the area later Saturday into Sunday. Forecast spread and timing
differences become more problematic this weekend due to 
uncertainty in upstream phasing. FWIW the 26/00Z ECMWF is more 
bullish in stream phasing vs. GFS and to a lesser extent the FV3
and GEFS. Expect a cool down behind the front Sun-Mon with 
temps trending near to below average as the calender flips from
March to April.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Massive area of high pressure will be overhead today and
Wednesday and VFR should hold through Friday. Winds will shift
tonight and then tomorrow morning. Have adjusted so in the TAFs. 

.Outlook...

Wed...No sig wx.

Thu...Mainly VFR, but SCT SHRA poss NW along WFRONT.

Fri...SHRA N, mainly VFR elsewhere.

Sat...Mainly VFR, but SCT SHRA poss NW as CFRONT nears.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dewpoints will be low for the rest of the day with the 
inversion forming by mid evening. Dewpoints through northern PA 
today and tomorrow will be in the single digits this afternoon 
and the low teens tomorrow. Expect RH/s today and tomorrow to be
in the 20s with the possibility of dropping to the teens 
through the afternoon hours. 

Dewpoints will be slightly higher through southern PA with 
readings in the low teens today and the mid to upper teens 
tomorrow. Expect RH/s to again drop to the 20s by late tomorrow 
morning and continuing through the afternoon hours. 
  
Winds will be 5 to 10 mph with gusts in the 15-25mph range. Gusts will 
cease early evening. Winds tomorrow will be lighter with no gusts expected
at this time. 

Southwesterly winds ahead of a cold front on Thursday should
bring an increase in dewpoints and humidity. The front should move through
Thursday night into Friday which will bring a chance 
of rain showers. 
MinRH will trend higher and range between 40-70 percent through
late week.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Ceru/Wachholz
SHORT TERM...Ceru/Steinbugl 
LONG TERM...Steinbugl 
AVIATION...Ceru
FIRE WEATHER...Ceru/Wachholz