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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCTP 220607
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
207 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
After one final day of sweltering conditions throughout central
Pennsylvania, the heat wave will break down to start the week. 
Thunderstorms will produce strong to severe wind gusts and pose
a significant flash flood threat on Monday across the southern 
tier of central PA. An extended period of dry weather is 
forecast Tuesday through the remainder of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Deep layer PW is pooling along and south of sagging weak cold
front laying across central PA late tonight. Sfc dewpoints are
in the mid 60s across northwest PA while south of the boundary
they remain near 70F. Scattered to numerous showers and embedded
storms are spread out across the southern half of PA late this
evening, and are slowly weakening. Meanwhile, several 5h
disturbances track through western and northwest PA overnight,
maintaining a trigger for additional scattered convection
overnight, which should become more widespread again by morning. 

Low temps will be in the low 60s tonight to the north of the 
quasi stationary boundary draped near the I-80 corridor. Another
warm night across south central PA with lows in the 70-75 
range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
*Thunderstorms with a wind damage and significant flash flood
 threat are possible across the southern tier of central PA

Synoptic forcing associated with an approaching upper level 
trough and attendant surface cold front combined with anomalous
moisture and narrow ribbon of instability and favorable shear 
will support multi hazard risk of flash flooding and severe 
t-storms Monday afternoon and evening. We are not surprised to
see the heat wave broken with the potential for very active
weather. 

WPC ERO was upgraded to MDT risk overnight and the latest SWO
has increased categorical risk from MRGL to SLGT across the far
southeast zones. Will issue Flash Flood Watch in collaboration 
with PHI and LWX where there is a multi-model signal for heavy
to excessive rainfall. Multiple round of showers/tstorms are
possible across the southeast as the front slowly shifts to the
east and exits the CWA Tuesday morning. 

Max temps will be much cooler tomorrow across most of CPA as
early clouds and showers hold readings in the upper 60s to mid
70s. Only the far southeast should reach into the 80s with max
HX values in the mid-upper 90s possible over the extreme
southeast part of the CWA (far southeast York & Lancaster Cos).
Lows drop back into the 50s in the north and lower to mid 60s
across south central PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lingering showers and maybe a tstm early on Tue over the SE as 
front and deep moisture finally exit the area.

By the end of Tuesday we will see markedly less humid air 
moving into the forecast area. This will be the beginning of a 
period of pleasant mid-summer days with daytime temperatures 
near normal and overnight lows running several degrees cooler 
than normal, plus with lower dewpoints and humidity. 

Models agree with keeping the anomalous eastern upper trough the
dominant feature through the end of the week when some
indications of rising heights and gradually rising
temps/dewpoints begin over the Ohio Valley and western PA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Strange evening outside, storms moving back to the north. 
Only about 2 storms left now.

Line of showers and storms across the Ohio Valley to work
eastward later.

Expect system to keep moving, so by late afternoon, the amt  
of activity should slowly taper off.

CIGS could lower behind the system, not all that normal for 
mid July.

Adjusted the fcst some for these things, 06Z TAFS sent.

Earlier discussion below.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms could produce a brief vis
reduction in spots late this evening. An area of low pressure 
lifting into the region will spread widespread showers and 
lowering cigs into the northwest part of the state late tonight.
Latest model soundings and SREF probability charts support low 
mvfr cigs across the Allegheny Plateau by around or shortly 
after dawn. 

The low pressure system will track across southern Pa Monday,
bringing rain and reduced cigs across the mountains of 
central/northern Pa. An examination model soundings suggests IFR
cigs are possible over the higher terrain from KBFD south 
through KJST. Across the southeast part of the state, there is a
good chance of an afternoon thunderstorm, followed by lingering
showers and mvfr cig reductions late in the day. 

.Outlook...

Tue...Early AM low cigs possible Laurel Highlands. 

Wed-Fri...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late 
tonight for PAZ035-036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...La Corte/RXR
AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Martin