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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCTP 260750
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
350 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front across the region will keep a chance of showers
and storms across the Keystone state today. This will be 
especially the case later this afternoon and early this 
evening across the south. Warm temperatures and high humidity 
levels will be across the area today. Slightly less humid air
is expected on Monday, as the cold front sags a little more
to the south.

More showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday 
into Thursday, as a complex frontal system moves across the 
Great Lakes area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Nothing on the radar at this point. Looking at where we had 
showers and storms last evening (I was the evening shift), and 
where showers and storms are now, I would think the highest 
chance would be across the southwest part of the CWA. Like most 
days lately, a few strong to severe storms could fire up. 

Winds aloft still rather fast, similar to Saturday, thus not
seeing much in the way of a flooding threat at this point.

Temperatures will be a little warmer than normal today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The chance of showers and storms will decrease after sunset 
this evening, especially across the north. Dewpoints are fcst
to drop across the north.

Further south, dewpoints will not change much. 

Anyway, Memorial day still looks to be mainly dry. This has
been the trend lately. Thus enjoy the day. Been hard to get
many dry days this Spring.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Some showers may try to work into the area by sunrise on 
Tuesday, given the strong warm advection. 

EC and other models hinting at a rather deep low by 12Z Tue.
Somewhat similar to last Thursday with the warm advection and
shear. 

I did lower temperatures some on Tuesday, but not as low
as the MAV quidance. MAV numbers look to be too cool for
Tue.

A complex pattern with how cold fronts and the upper level 
low come together later in the week, but there is enough
guidance to support to mention showers and storms in the 
fcst.

Daily highs will mainly range from the mid 70s to mid 80s 
through at least Thursday, with some cooling anticipated 
thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers and storms have moved out of the region. Winds have
calmed down through the NW and IFR cigs have already formed at 
BFD. Latest HREF shows IFR cigs forming through the NW and
potentially at IPT, MDT and LNS. MDT and IPT are already at
MVFR and LNS has a dewpoint depression of two. Couple this with
the light, moist southerly flow at LNS, and clam winds at MDT,
and IFR cigs and MVFR to IFR vsbys are possible after 09Z. Any
restrictions that form should continue until after sunrise. IPT
has seen 0.29 inches of rainfall today. This along with the 
calm winds and given their location near the river, IFR cigs and
vsbys are possible from now until 12Z as well. 

A cold front will move through Sunday morning, which will help 
break any inversion and clear up any restrictions. The front 
moving through the NW could spark showers and possibly a late 
morning thunderstorm. The latest HRRR shows this. I have so far
left it off the BFD TAF, however it is possible between 15Z to 
18Z. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon and the first half of the evening through the 
Lower Susquehanna. 
 With this front will be a wind shift to the NW and an increase
of winds to 10 to 15 mph with gusts upwards of 20 mph. 

Less chance of showers and storms on Memorial day.

Some chance of more showers and storms again after Monday.

.Outlook...

Mon-Tues AM...VFR.

Tues PM-Thurs...Mainly VFR, although spotty showers/storms are
expected each aftn/evening.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Martin
NEAR TERM...Martin
SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Ceru/Martin