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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by State College, PA (CTP)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCTP 222342
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
742 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm along the Maine coast will continue to deepen and move
north. The tight pressure gradient around the storm will keep
windy and colder conditions in place through Saturday. High
pressure will build across for Sunday bringing milder
conditions. A new frontal system is expected early next week
followed by dry weather for Tuesday through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
With the loss of heating, the radar is showing signs of activity
starting to quiet down some. Earlier we had some rumbles of
thunder and several reports of small hail/graupel. Mid level
lapse rates are still rather steep so it will take a while for 
the core of most unstable air aloft to pass and the showers to 
wind down altogether.

We will be canceling our wind advisory. We are going to stay 
windy in the 25-40 mph range, but gusts reaching advisory 
criteria do not look likely.

Lows in the teens and 20s will be about 5-10 deg colder than
normal. A gusty wind will make it feel colder.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Snow showers should end early Saturday morning followed by 
gradually subsiding winds into Saturday night. High pressure 
will provide dry wx over the weekend with temperatures trending
warmer on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Model guidance is in decent agreement with the next system 
returning light precipitation to the area late Sunday night into
Monday. I made a few adjustments to the temperatures. Looking at
some snow mixing with the rain at times late Sunday night into
Monday, especially across the north.

Dry weather is fcst from Monday night through late week. Temperatures
should trend colder behind the system Monday, given the source 
of the airmass. Minus 30 degree air at 850 mb over eastern 
Canada Sunday night is cold for late March.

Temperatures will rebound above average later in the week. I made
a few adjustments, but no big changes.

New EC (12Z) similar to the 00Z run of the EC and other models, 
as we head into late Friday into next weekend, that a system 
will lift northeast across the Great Lakes. This low will bring
mild air into the area, but also a tendency of the cold front 
to slow down with a ridge of high pressure over the southeast. 
This will result in some showers by Saturday. 

Overall, an active weather pattern for the lower 48.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A windy northwest flow continues across the entire region this
evening, with gusts frequently reaching 30 knots. Snow shower
activity beginning to wane across the region, especially noted
across the downslope regions of central and eastern portions of
the area.

KJST and KBFD, our typical airfields susceptible to a cold
unstable upslope flow continue to drift in and out of MVFR to
occasional IFR conditions. Even here, with loss of instability
overnight, expect snow showers to continue to decrease in
intensity overnight. Winds will remain brisk from the northwest
at 15 to 15 knots, with some gusts around 30.

VFR conditions across the region, but with the strong northwest
flow continuing. Indications are that the flow will begin to
relax late in the TAF period. Have included a 22z group
indicating the trend downward of the winds.

.Outlook...

Sat...VFR, but brisk.

Sun...No sig wx expected.

Mon...Rain/snow/low cigs possible, mainly N and W Mtns. 

Tue and Wed...No sig wx expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong northwesterly winds in the wake of cold front will
persist through Saturday. Relative humidities are forecast to 
drop to 30% or less Saturday and Sunday afternoon. However, 
in collaboration with fire weather partners, recent significant
rainfall and snow/rain showers today will keep fine fuel 
moisture above 10% through the weekend. Thus no flags are 
expected at this time.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte/Gartner
NEAR TERM...La Corte/Gartner
SHORT TERM...Gartner/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Jung/Gartner
FIRE WEATHER...