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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Charleston, SC (CHS)

                            
000
FXUS62 KCHS 230540
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
140 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will drop through the region tonight. High 
pressure will build over the region this weekend. Low pressure 
is expected to move across the region on Monday night through 
Tuesday night. High pressure will then rebuild. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Early this morning: Surface analysis shows that a dry cold 
front is nearing the forecast area from the north. The front 
will bring some weak cold advection and wind shift to more 
northerly flow. Otherwise, a very quiet forecast through 
sunrise. Lows will range from the lower 40s inland to the to 
around 50 at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure will build over the region on Saturday 
and will slide of the Carolina coast on Sunday. Saturday and 
Sunday, daytime temperatures will peak around 70 with morning 
lows in the 40s. The center of low pressure will track rapidly 
east across the Ohio River Valley and mid Appalachians on 
Monday. A cold front associated with the low is expected to 
slide across the foothills and Piedmont of the Carolinas by 
Monday afternoon. Temperatures on Monday in advance of the front
are forecast to warm into the upper 70s with dewpoints in the 
mid to upper 50s. GFS CAPE values may surge to around 500 J/kg 
Monday afternoon and evening. I will keep a mention of SCHC for 
thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A series of shortwaves will move through the area Monday night 
through Tuesday night while a backdoor cold front slowly sinks 
south through the area. We currently have the highest rain 
chances on Tuesday as this coincides with the front dropping 
through the area and the strongest PVA aloft. Cool high pressure
will affect the area through Wednesday before weakening and 
shifting east, allowing for a warming trend late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS and KSAV through 06z 
Sunday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions possible Monday 
night through Tuesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Rest of tonight: In general, winds should top out in the 15-20 
kt range while seas are no higher than 3-4 ft. A dry cold front 
is then expected to approach from the northwest, then shift over
the coastal waters late. Winds are expected to remain elevated 
(15-20 kt) behind the front, but will likely turn northwest 
after midnight, then north across South Carolina waters 
approaching daybreak Saturday.

Extended Marine: High pressure will build over the marine zones
on Saturday and will slide east on Sunday, yielding winds 
generally below 15 kts. Seas are expected to range between 1 to 
3 ft. A cold front will approach the region on Monday, sliding 
across the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. In the wake
of the front, gusty NE winds are expected across the marine 
zones. Small Craft Advisory conditions may begin on Tuesday and 
remain through Wednesday. High pressure is expected to build 
across the region on Thursday, resulting in decreasing winds. 
Seas on Thursday may remain at or above Small Craft Advisory 
criteria.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Saturday through Sunday: Critical or near-critical relative 
humidity values are likely to persist.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar is inoperative. Parts are on order and repairs 
are expected to occur on Monday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH/ST
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH/NED
MARINE...DPB/NED
FIRE WEATHER...
EQUIPMENT...