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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

FXUS61 KCAR 221645

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1245 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019

High pressure will move south of the region today and tonight. 
Low pressure will approach Monday and slowly cross northern 
Maine through Wednesday morning. High pressure will build over 
the area Wednesday evening. A cold front will approach on 


1245 PM Update... 
Temperatures at this hour have risen into the mid to upper 70s
in most areas inland from the coast. Just a bit of cumulus and 
cirrus across the region with partly to mostly sunny skies. No 
changes to going forecast at this hour as it is still on track. 

Prev discussion blo...
1024mb sfc high centered ovr West Virginia with ridge axis up 
to the northeast and thru the heart of the CWA. Winds are 
currently calm at most locations and with only thin cirrus ovr 
most of the area, temps are dipping into the 40s acrs the north.
Deeper vlys of northwest Aroostook are currently as low as the 
u30s and believe these areas hv reached their lowest point for 
the mrng. Patchy fog has been hit or miss acrs the region this 
mrng but hv not rmvd potential as microphysics satellite loop is
showing dvlpmnt in the past hr. 

Mostly sunny skies can be expected this mrng bfr mid-high clods
appch fm the west in advance of wv ejecting fm the nrn Plains.
H9 temps soar to nr +20C ovr cntrl sections of the area this
aftn and hv gone with lwr 80s ovr a good portion of the region
for highs this aftn. Onshore flow wl keep coast and outer island
in the u60s/nr 70 for highs tda but warm day expected rmndr of
the area, approx 15 degrees above normal for this last day of

Frontal bndry located fm srn Canada into the nrn Plains wl
slowly appch the state tonight. Sfc low mvs northeast out of 
the Plains along the bndry and effectively stalls front just
north of the international border thru the end of the pd.
Showers may mv into the St. John Vly this evng and generally
creep south through the ovrngt pd. Given the predicted cld cvr
hv gone with mins in the l/m 60s for tonight to the north of
Bangor, which may rival record high mins for Sept 23rd.


Rain showers will be focused in the north through Monday morning 
before low pressure begins to ride NE along the trough across 
Quebec. This will bring chance of showers further south through 
the afternoon hours into Downeast. Southern stream moisture will
add to rain chances with PWATs rising above 1.5 inches. Along 
the coast through the evening and overnight, the low begins to 
become more vertically stacked and cut off. Portions of Downeast
will be the warm spot for the day as SW flow intensifies 
between exiting high pressure and approaching trough. As a 
result, some elevated instability could bring an isolated 
thunderstorm. Much lift and forcing will be missing, and dont
expect more than a few rumbles mid-afternoon. 

Trough continues to cross overnight taking on a neutral tilt.
This will trend negative with divergence aloft along the ME/New
Brunswick border Tuesday as sfc low crosses over central Maine.
Expect dry air to infiltrate on southern side of the low which
would hamper shower chances there during morn/aftn. However,
additional forcing ahead and to north of the lows track can
take advantage of the moist environment, sharper forcing,
increased instability, and 40kts of 0-6km shear. Given timing
and location differences, have a wider area of isolated thunder
chances for Tuesday afternoon, mostly Downeast to just south of
a PQI/Clayton Lake line. These thundershowers could be deeper
and bring more moderate or heavy rain at times, but havent
added any enhanced wording at this time. Overnight, the low will
continue to travel NE, with some lingering wrap around showers
possible for northern half of the CWA.


Some moisture still lingering across the north Wednesday as low
is slow to exit fully into the Canadian Maritimes. High pressure
will quickly nose in Wednesday night with a brief dry break
before next chance of showers Thursday. A cold front will
approach from west with bulk of moisture rounding the top of a
surface high pressure across the Ohio Valley. Guidance agreeing
that this should track across the region quickly as a large
upper level jet aligns along the northern tier of states and
US/Can border. Aforementioned high will continue towards east
coast with FA entering a more NW dry flow regime towards end of
week and early weekend. Temperatures during this time will
return towards normal with highs in the 60s and overnight lows
in the mid to upper 40s across the north, and around 50


NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours. Cigs will lower to 5kft this evng
acrs nrn terminals with mid level cigs working in after 00z for
Downeast sites. South winds wl become gusty drg the afternoon
hours north of HUL and will remain 5-10kts across the south. May
see LLWS around 40-45kts over far north toward end of TAF valid

Monday through Tuesday: MVFR likely with showers approaching Monday
north to south through the day. Conditions continue Monday 
night. Conditions improve to VFR at BGR and BHB Tuesday. Winds 
SW 5-10kts, becoming light Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Tuesday Night: VFR at BGR and BHB with MVFR still possible in showers
across the northern sites FVE, CAR, PQI and HUL,

Wednesday and Wednesday Night: Conditions across north improving
to VFR, but ceilings will be slow to increase. Winds NW 
shifting W.

Thursday: MVFR in the north with showers late morning into
afternoon. Winds shifting to SW.


NEAR TERM: Winds will likely remain just below 25kts tonight
with stable inversion present over the waters. Seas will rise to
near 5ft tonight in southeasterly swell but confidence is not
high enough to issue SCA. Visibilities will be reduced in patchy
fog over the waters tonight. 

SHORT TERM: SCA for hazardous seas may be needed Monday through
Tuesday as waves could build to around 5 or 6 feet. Winds look
to remain below 25kts given stable layer at surface. Waves go
down, but remain 3 to 4 ft Wednesday and Thursday.





Near Term...Duda/Farrar
Short Term...Cornwell
Long Term...Cornwell