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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

FXUS61 KCAR 240434

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1234 AM EDT Fri May 24 2019

Low pressure will approach from the west this evening and cross the 
area late tonight. High pressure will build in from the west Friday 
into Friday night and slide south of the area Saturday.

950 pm update...
Added areas of fog...mostly for the coast and higher terrain.

Prev discussion blo...
After a rather pleasant afternoon, clouds will be on the
increase the balance of the daylight hours through early this 
evening, in advance of an approaching short wave from the Great 
Lakes region. Expect rain to begin to overspread western areas 
around sunset and then spread across the remainder of the 
forecast area through midnight. Still looks like a widespread 
half to three quarters on an inch of rain can be expected across
the region, with somewhat lesser amounts across Northern 
Aroostook County and the St. John Valley. An isolated rumble of 
thunder or two can't completely be ruled out, mainly central 
highlands to the coast, as the upper level feature crosses the 
region overnight. As pointed out by previous shifts, there is 
some elevated instabilty, but not high enough confidence to 
include in forecast. It will be a milder night than last night, 
with lows expected to be in the upper 40 most areas. The surface
and upper level low will quickly exit east of the coast Friday 
morning, with the steady rain ending shortly after sunrise, 
giving way to a lingering shower by early afternoon. We should 
begin to see the sky brighten late afternoon as high pressure 
builds east. Highs on Friday are expected to range from the 
upper 50s to around 60 degrees.

Low pressure will be sliding south of Nova Scotia Friday evening as 
surface high pressure and an upper level ridge builds in from the 
west. This will bring a mostly clear night and some spotty showers 
will likely linger. High pressure south of the area combined with an 
upper level ridge will bring a sunny to partly cloudy and warm day 
Saturday. Our focus then turns to a fast moving shortwave 
approaching from the west Saturday evening. Clouds may begin to 
increase, especially over the northwest, late in the day Saturday. A 
weak occlusion being pulled through by low pressure in northern 
Quebec will then bring showers late Saturday night. Sunday will 
remain mostly cloudy in the occlusion with showers and, in some 
areas, a thunderstorm. The NAM is suggesting a layer of cool air 
near the surface will limit instability. The GFS, However, has capes 
up to 200-400 J/KG. The best chance for any thunder will likely be 
in the central highlands and western areas with low level cool air 
limiting convection across eastern parts of the region.

High pressure building in from the west will bring a mostly sunny 
day on Monday. The sky may be partly sunny over the far north where 
cool air at 6K ft produces cumulus. This will be followed by a 
mostly clear and cool night Monday night. Low pressure lifting north 
of the Great Lakes on Tuesday will pull a warm front north into the 
area. This will bring increasing clouds Tuesday. Some showers and 
perhaps elevated convection thunderstorms may stray into western 
areas late in the day. Showers, and perhaps thunderstorms in central 
areas, will slide through Tuesday night. Upper level ridging may 
then bring a break on Wednesday as upper level ridging pushes back 
over the area. The humidity may increase as the low continues to 
lift up to our west bringing a southerly breeze. Showers from the 
low may return Thursday with increasingly humid air over the

NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will give way to MVFR restrictions at
PQI, CAR and FVE after 08z with low cigs and MVFR rain expected
to continue through late morning-early aftn. Srn terminals, will
see IFR cigs after midnight tonight with improvement to MVFR
after 13z at HUL, with BGR and BHB not improving until after
15z. Northeast winds expected to gust south of HUL late morning
into the afternoon hours. 

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Friday night into 
Saturday. Conditions will likely lower to IFR Saturday night 
into early Sunday morning then become MVFR to VFR for the 
remainder of Sunday. VFR conditions will return late Sunday 
night with VFR conditions expected Monday into midday Tuesday.

NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will gradually increase to SCA levels late
tonight. There may be a brief break in the winds early Friday
morning, but winds are expected to once again increase to SCA
levels in the wake of departing Maritimes low Friday afternoon.
Visibility is expected to decrease to 1 to 3 NM in rain this 
evening and into Friday morning, then improve Friday afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Winds are expected to be below SCA through the 
weekend although a few gusts may approach 25kt from the south on

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for 

Near Term...Duda/Farrar
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer