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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCAR 181341
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
941 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the region today, then begin 
to exit across the Maritimes tonight. A cold front will reach 
northern Maine later Wednesday and stall. Low pressure will 
track across the area along the stalled front Thursday into 
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
940am Update...
Added isolated showers this afternoon for Northern Maine as
there appears to be just enough instability for a few light 
showers to form with the heating of the day. Otherwise no
changes.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure will remain across the region today, then begin 
to exit across the Maritimes tonight while a cold front 
approaches northern Maine. After a mostly sunny morning, expect 
partly sunny skies this afternoon. Skies will remain partly 
cloudy across northern areas tonight in advance of the 
approaching cold front. Also, expect partly cloudy skies early 
tonight Downeast. However, light south winds around exiting high
pressure could help advect low clouds inland from the Gulf of 
Maine. Have also included patchy fog along the Downeast coast 
later tonight. High temperatures today will reach the mid to 
upper 70s across much of the forecast area. However, developing 
onshore winds will help keep temperatures in the upper 60s to 
lower 70s along the Downeast coast. Low temperatures tonight 
will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s north, to the lower 
to mid 50s Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough will approach from the northwest during
the day Wednesday spreading rain into western and northern areas
during the day and across most of the region Wednesday night. A
cold front is then expected to move across the state on 
Thursday producing rain across the region. The rain is expected 
to be heaviest across the south later Thursday and Thursday 
evening as an area of low pressure moves along the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Rain is expected to end late Friday and Friday night as the 
frontal system and low pressure move eastward into the Atlantic.
High pressure will build in from the west on Saturday and crest
over the region on Sunday with mostly dry conditions expected 
during the day on Sunday. High pressure is then expected to move
to the east on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the region today.
VFR conditions should persist across northern areas tonight.
Across Downeast areas, low clouds and fog will move inland from
the Gulf of Maine tonight. Conditions Downeast should lower to 
MVFR/IFR levels early tonight, then to IFR/LIFR levels 
overnight. 

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR conditions are expected at KFVE, KCAR, and
KPQI on Wednesday while VFR/MVFR conditions are expected at
KHUL, KBGR, and KBHB. IFR conditions expected all areas on
Thursday. VFR/MVFR conditions on Friday. VFR conditions expected
on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels today through tonight. Visibilities will be reduced in
developing fog tonight. 

SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM to initialize the wind grids. For
Waves: Expect wind wave will be the primary wave system
Wednesday and Thursday (1-2 feet/5-6 seconds) with a secondary
long period swell around 1 foot/12-13 seconds). Southerly swell
is expected to build to 3-4 feet/8 seconds on Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Foisy/Norcross
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Mignone
Aviation...Foisy/Norcross/Mignone
Marine...Foisy/Norcross/Mignone