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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCAR 250913
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
513 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the region into Wednesday. A 
cold front will approach later Wednesday then cross the region 
Thursday. 
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The powerful upper and surface ridges will continue to deliver
strong subsidence with little cloud cover and no precip through
tonight. The blocking ridge evolves to a Rex block during the
forecast period. The closed upper low to the south has become a
more dynamic feature in recent model runs with cyclogenesis
occurring well south of Nova Scotia later tonight. The only
potential consequence in the forecast area could be some cirrus
spinning around the closed low into the Downeast region very late
tonight. For today, a nominal increase in 850mb temps will 
deliver highs several degrees higher than yesterday, especially
in the southern half of the forecast area which won't be 
affected by cloud cover today. In spite of a rather deep mixed 
layer this afternoon, winds aloft are light and surface winds 
will remain light all day. Clear skies and light winds carry 
into Sunday night with another strong radiation inversion. In 
spite of an even deeper inversion, lows won't be quite as cold 
as this morning's readings. Valley fog and steam fog over 
relatively warmer lakes/rivers will return later Sunday night. 
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will remain across the region Monday 
through Tuesday, then begin to move east Tuesday night. At the 
same time, an intensifying ocean low will track toward eastern 
Nova Scotia. Aloft, an upper low will move east across Nova
Scotia, eventually capturing the surface low. High pressure will
keep generally mostly clear skies across the region Monday
through Tuesday night. However, the surface/upper low across 
the Maritimes could wrap clouds back toward eastern portions of 
the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday. Patchy valley fog 
is also possible across the region Monday night. Temperatures 
will be at near normal, to slightly above normal, levels 
Monday/Tuesday. 
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front will move east across Quebec province Wednesday 
while another ocean low intensifies south of the Gulf of Maine. 
Expect increasing clouds in advance of the cold front later 
Wednesday. The cold front approaches the region Wednesday night
while the ocean low tracks toward Nova Scotia. Expect increasing
shower chances across the region Wednesday night in advance of
the cold front. The cold front will cross the region Thursday.
Uncertainty exists Thursday regarding the extent to which 
moisture from the ocean low is drawn north across the region in 
advance of the cold front. Have kept a chance of showers across
the region Thursday. However, if more significant moisture is
drawn north more extensive showers or a steadier rain are 
possible. Showers should end later Thursday night with building
high pressure, which will then cross the region Friday. A cold
front should approach later Friday night with a chance of
showers across mostly the north and mountains. The cold front
will begin to cross the region Saturday, though the exact 
timing is still uncertain. Expect a chance of showers with the 
cold front. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level 
temperatures are expected Wednesday/Friday/Saturday. Near
normal, to slightly below normal, level temperatures are 
expected Thursday.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions with excellent vis and no cigs are 
forecast. Patchy shallow fog near sunrise is possible for
low-lying airfields near bodies of water such as PQI and BHB on
Sunday night.

SHORT TERM: 
Monday through Wednesday...Generally VFR. However, variable
conditions are possible with any late night valley fog.

Wednesday night through Thursday...MVR/IFR with showers.
Improving conditions Thursday night. 
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Expect some wind gusts up to 20 kts this
morning, mostly further offshore rather than near the immediate
coast or Penobscot Bay. Otherwise, no significant weather is 
anticipated.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory 
levels Monday through Tuesday night.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...MCW
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...MCW/Norcross
Marine...MCW/Norcross