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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCAR 181903
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
303 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area tonight will move east Wednesday. Low
pressure will cross the region Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Quiet afternoon with weak high pressure over the region. Good
amount of afternoon cumulus with perhaps enough buildup for a
localized shower in the north, but nothing at all significant.

High pressure moves off to the east tonight with weak onshore
flow developing. Expect low clouds and fog to develop along the
coast and move inland a bit to the Bangor region late in the
night. North extent of marine layer a bit uncertain, but looks
to make it to a bit north of Bangor but not as far north as
Millinocket. Dry tonight outside of possible drizzle with the 
marine layer.

For Wednesday, a weak cold front approaches from the west with a
weak upper level trough. A bit muggy with dewpoints in the mid
to upper 50s. Afternoon showers and storms looking likely inland
north of Bangor and away from the marine layer, thanks to
sufficient low level moisture and the approaching cold front.
Shear is pretty weak and CAPE is modest around 500 J/kg and 
don't expect storms to be strong, but there will be a decent 
amount of showers and storms in the north and went with likely 
PoPs north of a Mars Hill to Greenville line. 
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will be sliding away to the east Wednesday night as a 
weak front pushes into the northern part of our area. Moisture 
sliding up along this front along with a weak wave of low pressure 
will produce some spotty showers over the area Wednesday night, and 
some patchy drizzle and fog are possible, especially Downeast. Our 
focus on Thursday will be low pressure approaching from the upper 
Midwest supported by a trough of low pressure digging south through 
the Great Lakes. A steady rain will likely increase Downeast on 
Thursday with patchy light rain over the north. The forecast 
challenge will be how far north the rain comes Thursday into 
Thursday night. The NAM and ECMWF suggest the rain will push across 
the north too, while the GFS has the frontal boundary pushing south 
and keeping the steadier heavier rain Downeast. Low pressure will 
exit south of Nova Scotia on Friday and rain will taper off, north 
to south, as high pressure builds in from the west. The sky should 
brighten by late Friday and the sun may begin to return late in the 
day, especially in western areas. 

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure, both at the surface and aloft, will consolidate east 
of the area Friday night into Saturday as high pressure begins to 
build in from the west. Some stratocumulus will likely limit 
sunshine through Saturday and a gusty northwesterly breeze will 
persist with a strong gradient at the surface and aloft. Winds 
should diminish Saturday night. Sunday is then expected to feature 
plenty of sunshine and a warm afternoon as surface high pressure 
builds in supported by upper level ridging. The sky will be mostly 
clear Sunday night. Our focus on Monday will be on an occlusion 
being pulled east ahead of a low moving through central Canada. This 
will bring increasing clouds followed by a chance of showers late 
Monday into Monday night. Some elevated convection may produce 
thundershowers in western areas with the air likely too stable for 
thunder across the east. Very warm air will follow the occlusion on 
Tuesday with a return of some sunshine and a chance for an isolated 
afternoon thunderstorm, especially in western areas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR this evening, overnight, and into Wednesday for
Northern Maine. However, expect low ceilings to develop tonight
near the coast and move inland to around KBGR with IFR/LIFR.
Can't rule out low ceilings making it north to KHUL, but at this
time believe they will stay south. Becoming generally VFR 
Downeast by around midday. Scattered to numerous showers and 
storms Wednesday afternoon mainly in Northern Maine could bring 
locally lower conditions, but generally looking for VFR Wedneday
afternoon. 

SHORT TERM: IFR conditions in low clouds are expected across 
most areas Wednesday night into Thursday, with occasional MVFR 
conditions possible over the north. IFR conditions should 
persist Downeast Thursday night into Friday with MVFR conditions
across the north, possibly becoming VFR on Friday. VFR 
conditions are likely Saturday with a gusty breeze as low 
pressure departs. 

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: High pressure with conditions below small craft
levels. However, areas of fog are expected tonight into
Wednesday morning.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA 
through mid to late week. Some fog may reduce visibilities over 
the waters Wednesday night into early Friday. 

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Foisy
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Foisy/Bloomer
Marine...Foisy/Bloomer