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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCAR 231122
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
722 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach the area today and slowly cross 
the state Tuesday. High pressure will build over the area 
Wednesday night. A cold front will approach and cross the area 
on Thursday followed by high pressure through the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
720 am update...
Temps hv contd to rise this mrng and are currently in the m70s
acrs the north just ahead of showers appchg. Expect showers wl
begin in the St. John Vly within the hr and cont to push east fm
there as sfc low and assoc bndry appch the region. Temps wl lkly
rise for the next hr bfr leveling off and then beginning to fall
thru the mrng. Still expecting l80s ovr interior Downeast for
highs today. Ongoing minor adjustments to temps, winds and pops
with this update.

Prev discussion blo...
Strong swrly flow occurring acrs the CWA early this mrng with sfc 
temps rising acrs nrn Aroostook to welcome the autumnal equinox. CAR 
rose from 72F at 02z to 75F at 05z, likely due to 40-50 LLJ mixing 
down warm temps fm aloft. Thus far CAR has reached a min of 72F drg 
the overnight hrs. Aftn highs for nrn Aroostook wl lkly be right 
arnd the same values, in the lwr 70s, with temps falling by mid-
aftn. 

Sfc low located along the srn Ontario/Quebec brdr with frontal 
boundary located to the north of the St. Lawrence as of 08z. Showers 
are mvg to the northeast along bndry but also dropping south twd the 
region attm but hv delayed pops by an addn'l 1-2 hrs this mrng as 
best chance of showers looks to mv into the North Woods btwn 10z-
12z. Greatest 3-hr pressure falls exist ovr the Gulf of St. Lawrence 
with sfc low lkly tracking east this mrng. 

Shower chcs wl increase as low approaches fm Canada. Low pressure 
looks to cross the state this evng and tonight with nrly winds acrs 
the north and srly winds over Downeast. Still some disparity in 
guidance with regard to exact mvmnt of low tonight and this wl lkly 
make the difference with location of best chc for thunder as well as 
potentially heavy rainfall. For now hv indicated that 24-hr QPF 
amnts look to range fm 0.50 inches along the coast to near 1 inch 
over ern Aroostook but this is dependent on mvmnt of low and 
assoc bndry. This also does not take into account the dvlpmnt of
tstms thru the pd with pw values on the order of 1.5-1.75 
inches today and tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Closed low aloft will broaden over New England Tuesday. 
Much of the stronger divergence aloft will move over New 
Brunswick by mid to late morning, along with it, the better lift
for moderate rain. Still expect showers to be ongoing for 
better part of the day with elevated instability and PWATs over 
1 inch. Afternoon thunder still possible, mainly Downeast. 
Forecast surface low development appears weaker, and window of 
time to take advantage of surface based instability is slim. 
Mid-level lapse rates will be sufficient as cold air moves in 
aloft, but low levels will struggle to warm with cloud cover and
slowing surface winds under sfc low. Still a chance for small 
line of thundershowers to develop Tues afternoon Downeast and 
dissipate near the coast.

Low will slowly pivot into the Canadian Maritimes Wednesday with
lingering showers Tuesday night in the north. Dry air w/ high
pressure filters in Wednesday and Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry conditions will be cut short by approaching cold front
Thursday. Chances of rain increase across the north late 
morning into the afternoon, reaching Downeast in the evening. 
Strong high pressure across the Ohio Valley begins to track into
southern New England Thursday night, keeping this rainy system 
progressive. With high pressure residing over the area Friday, 
the sun will make an appearance across most of the forecast area
before another disturbance approaches Saturday.

Temperatures through the period will be slightly above average
with jet just to our north.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR before diminishing to MVFR btwn 14z and 17z tda
in low cigs and -shra. FVE, CAR and PQI may improve to VFR
briefly this evng before dropping to MVFR in low clouds and 
shra once again tonight. HUL likely to be MVFR after 17z though
IFR vsbys possible in shra after 07z. BGR and BHB will drop to 
IFR after 06z tonight.

SHORT TERM: 
Tuesday through Tuesday Night: IFR clgs/vsbys all 
TAF sites mainly in shwrs/rn with patchy late ngt fog Downeast 
sites late Mon ngt/early Tue morn. Lgt winds.

Wednesday: MVFR clgs all TAF sites improving to VFR Wed aftn. Lgt
winds. 

Wednesday Night: All sites VFR with light winds.

Thursday and Thursday Night - All sites MVFR clgs/vsbys in shwrs. Lgt
Winds.

Friday: Conditions improving to VFR with NW winds 5-10kts

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: An SCA will continue through tonight as seas rise 
to 4 to 7 feet over the outer waters. Winds may approach 25 kts
today. 

SHORT TERM: Winds Monday night will slacken as low pressure
moves overhead, picking back up Wednesday with gusts near 15kts.
Waves will remain 4-5 feet through Thursday and Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Farrar
Short Term...Cornwell
Long Term...Cornwell
Aviation...Farrar/Cornwell
Marine...Farrar/Cornwell