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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

FXUS61 KCAR 231411

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1011 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

High pressure will build across the region through Sunday, then
slowly move east Monday and Tuesday. Low pressure from the west
will begin to approach on Wednesday into Thursday.


955 AM Update: Chgs this update included minor adjustments to
winds, including hi trrn, cld cvr advancement tmg ovr Nrn areas,
and hi temps, particular ovr the N.

Latest Sat imagery shows the SC cld cvr shield advcg a little
slower then the prev fcst tmg, so we delayed cld cvr arrival by
an hr or two later than the prev fcst update. This impacted the
rate of rise ovr the far N, with temps able to rise more quickly
here and apchg with a deg or two F of the prev fcst hi temps. So
raised hi temps across the N by a couple of deg F, but placed 
the hi temp ovr this area no later then 2 pm, with temps xpctd 
to lvl off and slowly fall later into the aftn, and this could 
happen even sooner ovr the xtrm Nrn border areas with NB and QB.
Lastly, we insured wind/wing gust consistency thru tngt spcly 
ovr the hi trrn.

Orgnl Disc: Cooler weather getting established today.

Clouds will fill back in, mainly across the N and W this 
afternoon as the trof apchs. Warming in the llvls coupled w/the 
cold air aloft and the trof will be enough to trigger some 
showers. Rainfall amounts will be light(<.05"). Decided to stay 
close to the daycrew's assessment of 20-30% for showers across 
the crown. NW winds 10-15 mph w/gust potential to 30 mph given 
the good shear noted in the soundings. Daytime temps will be 
below normal for late August.

Winds will gradually die down during the evening. Clouds will be
around the region, especially across northern and western areas
as the upper trof slides through the region. Any showers will be
confined right near the nw border. Much cooler w/mid to upper
40s across n and w, while central and downeast areas see lower


Impressive surface and upper level ridging builds through the
period and will ensure dry conditions. Low level moisture and a
northeast flow will generate cloud cover on Saturday. These 
clouds and cold air advection will limit highs to the upper 60s 
to lower 70s. The warmest temps will be on the coast with an 
offshore flow. Clearing will arrive from the north as the 1030mb
high settles over the area Saturday night. The air mass is cool
enough to consider some patchy frost for some of the colder 
Aroostook County valleys both Saturday and Sunday nights. Patchy
fog over lakes and river valleys can also be expected.  Sunday 
will feature little cloud cover under the sfc high and highs in 
the lower 70s.


The Rex block continues in place into Wednesday with slightly cooler
than normal temperatures. Any tropical systems are currently expected
to stay well south of the area. Afternoon sea breeze processes 
will return along the coast Mon into Wed. Lowered temps for 
Monday and Tuesday nights with continued clear skies and light 
winds. Clouds gradually increase Wednesday as the remnants of a 
warm occluded front moves towards the area. This front will 
likely produce little or no precipitation as it decays over the 
area. A second weakening occlusion will move into the ridge 
later Thursday. Maintained chance PoPs Wednesday night into 
Thursday as uncertainty remains on the exact evolution and
timing of these fronts.


NEAR TERM: VFR through tonight. The caveat will be this morning
across the HUL and PQI terminals as some patchy fog will briefly lead
to MVFR vsbys.

Saturday...chance of morning MVFR cigs...mostly north of
HUL...otherwise VFR

Saturday night through Tuesday...VFR except patchy shallow fog
around sunrise


NEAR TERM: WNW winds around 10 kts through tonight w/ocnl gusts
to 20 kts this afternoon. Seas will average 2-3 ft. 

SHORT TERM: No significant issues are expected. Fog won't return
until later Thursday. Winds will increase with a few gusts to 20
kts Saturday night into Sunday. At this point, stronger east
winds on Monday and Tuesday are forecast to stay south of the
coastal waters. A tropical system well to the south may 
generate high swell than currently forecast Tuesday into 





Near Term...VJN
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW