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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCAR 230510
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
110 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will stall over the eastern Maritimes through the
weekend. High pressure will gradually build toward the region
from the west Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
110 am update...
Quick update to ingest latest obs. Hv dropped lows into the 40
acrs the North Woods where they are presently. Expect these
temps wl rmn steady drg the ovrngt. No other chgs needed with
this update.

Previous Discussion...
Latest radar imagery shows diminishing tstms ovr Downeast 
areas, and we xpct this trend to cont thru the late aftn as the 
s/wv alf and associated cold pool alf moves S of the rgn, with 
shwrs becoming isold by erly eve, then ending across the FA by 
late eve. 

Another s/wv from Nrn QB will rotate swrd into Nrn ptns of the
FA late tngt with at least ptly cldy skies and perhaps an isold
shwr ovr this area before weakening ovr Cntrl and Downeast by
erly Sun morn. Otherwise, the remainder of Sun will be ptly to
msly sunny and windy. In fact, a mdt sfc pres grad and steep
sfc-1000m lapse rates will allow momentum transfer of of 30 to
35kt wind arnd the 850mb lvl from late morn into the aftn hrs,
translating to sfc wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph N and Cntrl and  
25 to 30 mph Downeast.

With more in the way of llvl cold advcn across the Nrn third of
the FA Sun compared to Cntrl and Downeast areas which will have
a compensating warming downslope wind direction from the Wrn
Highlands, there will be a larger hi temp grad across the FA by
mid to late Sun aftn than the last couple of aftns, with far N 
only near 70 and Wrn Downeast areas near 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A high pressure ridge will dominate the weather through most of
the period. At the start of the period high pressure will be 
crested over the region. A stalled low remains over the Canadian
Maritimes, and a new system will be organizing in the Midwest. 
The frontal system in the Midwest will slowly move east making 
it to New Hampshire Tuesday afternoon. By the end of the period 
the front will move into SW Maine.

The models they were in good agreement overall through the short
term of the forecast period. Loaded a blend of the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM to smooth out the minor differences in the
models.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled weather will dominate the extended period. A cold
frontal system will move through the area early in the extended
period. Bringing showers back to the area. The front will move 
into New Brunswick by Wednesday afternoon. The Upper low over 
Northern Quebec east of Hudson Bay will remain through the end 
of the period spinning off troughs that will move through Maine 
bringing more showers to the area. 

Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models. Used
NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours. LLWS north of HUL now through 09z
as strong winds rotate in fm the north. Expect gusty nw winds
once again on Sunday. May see potential showers at Downeast 
terminals in the afternoon, and possibly a tstm, but confidence 
is too low to include at this time.

SHORT TERM: Generally VFR conditions through Tuesday afternoon.
Increasing clouds and decreasing ceiling Tuesday morning.
Tuesday evening ceiling will fall to MVFR with scattered
showers. An Upper low will remain in the area and troughs will
move through about 12hrs apart. Cigs and vsby will vary between
MVFR and IFR in precip through the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No hdlns anticipated thru Sun with NW winds xpctd to
remain in the 10 to 20 kt range with near shore wv hts arnd 2 ft
and outer waters wv hts 3 to 4 ft. Spectral wv analysis shows
two active wv groups with the most energetic group an 8-9 sec pd
N propagating semi-swell and a lesser energy very short 3 to 5 
sec pd SE propagating wind group.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory levels
through the period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through 
     this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Farrar/VJN
Short Term...Norton
Long Term...Norton
Aviation...Farrar/VJN/Norton
Marine...Farrar/VJN/Norton