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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCAR 230737
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
337 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough and upper level disturbance will cross the 
region today. High pressure slowly builds toward the area from 
the west Monday and will settle over Maine Monday night. A warm 
front approaches Tuesday and crosses the area Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Nw flow is contg ovr the FA tonight and wl do so thru the rmndr of 
the near term as upr low conts to hang out ovr the Canadian 
Maritimes. Temps are currently all over the place with the deepest 
vlys in the North Woods down into the 40s while the higher terrain 
is nr 60F. Expect these temps wl continue to fluctuate back and 
forth thru daybreak depending on bursts of wind. 

S/wv located to the west of Hudson's Bay wl be dropping south thru 
Quebec this mrng and appch the state this aftn. All guidance, along 
with hires CAM models, indicate showers beginning to dvlp in max htg 
aft 17z along cntrl areas with cvrg increasing thru 21z bfr 
diurnal htg slowly wanes. MLCAPE looks to range fm 400-1000 J/kg
drg prime hgt. Hv increased pops fm prior update to sctd pops 
south of Katahdin and low likely along the immediate coast. 
Cannot rule out some pea-size hail in pulse-type storms but 
moisture lacking in mid- levels wl be hard pressed to see 
anything more than isold thunder. 

Expect that high temps wl rise abv normal in srn areas while rmng 
just blo normal acrs the north. For tonight expect that showers and 
isold thunder wl diminish this evng as s/wv pushes thru and daytime 
htg is lost. Skies wl clear fm north to south with dry airmass mvg 
in overhead. With pressure gradient beginning to relax expect that 
temps wl dip into the 40s acrs the north and to nr 50F over 
Downeast. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Monday is expected to be a fine summer day. The area will remain
between an upper low east of Labrador with an associated trough 
that will extend south across the eastern Maritimes and an upper
ridge that is expected to stretch from the eastern Great Lakes 
north to eastern Hudson Bay. This will keep our FA in a dry 
northwest flow as a surface ridge builds across the area. There 
will be steep low level lapse rates below 800H, and there will 
be a bit of a breeze, but it will not be nearly as windy as the
weekend. Dew points will be in the very comfortable 30s and low
40s north with 40s along the coast. High temperatures will be 
seasonable with lows 70s in the north to the mid to upper 70s 
Down East. Did make some adjustments to raise the high
temperatures Monday afternoon. Monday night will be clear and 
comfortably cool as weak high pressure only slowly retreats to 
the south of the region. Most inland areas will drop into the 
40s, with a few upper 30s possible in the normally colder 
northwest valleys. Some adjustments were made to lower the lows
in the normally cooler locations. Tuesday should start sunny 
with clouds increasing from the southwest in the afternoon in 
advance of a warm front that may set up a shower toward evening 
across the central highlands. Highs will be mostly in the low to
mid 70s for most inland areas, but with the flow turning more 
onshore sea breezes will keep highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s 
for most areas along the coast. 

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An unsettled and more humid weather pattern expected during the long 
term.  High temperatures will not stray too far from seasonal 
averages, but a fair amount of cloud cover and a more humid air mass 
will keep the nighttime temperatures above average. The first dew 
points AOA 60F are possible across far northern Maine by 
Thursday.

On Tuesday night, the flow becomes more onshore and a warm front 
will work across the region.  There will likely be areas of stratus 
that develop along the coast that will lift north across at least 
parts of the FA Tue night.  A few showers will be likely with a 
possible rumble or two of thunder, especially in the evening across 
the southwest portion of the FA. The model soundings are not 
all that unstable, so confidence on any thunder is low and will 
not be included at this time. 

The area remains under the influence of A 500H trough to our 
northwest that may eventually drop into Maine by next weekend. 
The flow regime will allow a series of fronts and shortwaves to
traverse the FA mid-late week and into the start of the weekend.
This will lead to a pattern that will feature more clouds than 
sun most of the time along with occasional showers, and possibly
a thunderstorm, especially during the afternoon and early 
evening hours. Climatologically the chances of thunder are on 
the increase this time of year, but given the uncertainty and 
lack of much convection so far this year will hold off on any 
thunder until confidence increases. 

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours. LLWS north of HUL now through 09z
as strong winds rotate in fm the north. Expect gusty nw winds
once again on Sunday. May see potential showers at Downeast 
terminals in the afternoon, and possibly a tstm, but confidence 
is too low to include at this time.

SHORT TERM: VFR expected Monday and Tuesday. Conditions will 
likely lower to IFR Tue night at the Down East terminals in 
low stratus. Less confidence if the lower ceilings make it 
north to the Aroostook County terminals, but this is something 
that will need to be watched. An unsettled weather pattern is 
expected Wed-Thu with IFR to MVFR at times, especially at night
into the morning hours, with MVFR to VFR most of the time 
during the afternoon and early evening hours. 

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas continue to remain below SCA levels
through tonight. May see isolated thunderstorms move over the 
waters late this afternoon and evening. 

SHORT TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small 
craft advisory levels through the middle of the week.  As a warmer 
and more humid air mass works over the colder waters fog may become 
an issue by Tue night or Wed morning. 

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through 
     this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Farrar
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...Farrar/CB
Marine...Farrar/CB