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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

FXUS61 KCAR 230531

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
131 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

A cold front will exit across the Gulf of Maine overnight into 
Friday. High pressure will build across the region Saturday and 
Sunday, then slowly move east Monday and Tuesday. Low pressure 
from the west will begin to approach on Wednesday.


125 AM Update... 
Clouds still streaming up along the cold front right along
the coast as seen on the latest satl imagery. Some clouds moving
into western sections w/bases of 5k ft. Clouds to gradually 
thin out overnight as drier air continues its trek southward. 
Dewpoints still in the low/mid 60s from Bangor to the coast 
w/that drier air just to the north. Slight adjustments were 
made to the dewpoints and temps to fit the latest obs, but 
otherwise, forecast looking good.

Previous Discussion...
The parent low of the system will remain over Quebec. A trough 
will rotate around the low over Quebec and move through Northern
Maine Friday morning. High pressure will build in behind the 
trough and will remain through the end of the period.

Loaded a blend of the GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM to smooth out the minor
differences in the models.


Fri eve, a s/wv trof will rotate across the FA from a semi-
closed mid lvl low ovr the Gulf of St Lawrence, bringing cldnss 
to msly Nrn ptns of the FA as well as isold to sct lgt rn shwrs 
across the far N. This s/wv will track ESE of the FA into NB 
prov by late Fri ngt...but allowing some SC cld cvr to spread 
swrd with a NW cool advcn breeze for the remainder of the ngt. 
Sat will be ptly to msly sunny. Hi temps Sat will be coolest 
this upcoming pd accompanied by breezy N winds, with llvl cool 
advcn only becmg near neutral late in the day.

With the sfc hi xpctd to crest right ovr the Rgn by late Sat ngt, 
clr skies, lgt winds, and dry airmass conditions should allow 
for good radiational cooling spcly for Nrn vly Rgns where ovrngt
lows of lower 40s and even upper 30s for coldest lctns of the 
wrn St John vly are likely by erly Sun morn. Otherwise, Sun durg
dylgt hrs looks to be sunny with a decent recovery of temps to 
lower to mid 70s for aftn highs for all low trrn lctns as sfc 
high pres slowly drifts E of the Rgn.


Longer range models are in better agreement on tdy's 12z model 
cycle that Sun ngt thru Tue looks to be fair and dry attm.
Blended long range models then show increasing cldnss later Tue
ngt into Wed and the next chc of shwrs late Wed into Thu.

The main uncertainty late in the long range is the future track
of the system currently just SW of the Bahamas, with this 
uncertainty including whether the system will be tropical or non
tropical as it moves into higher latitudes in the N Atlc basin.
Most model solutions for the time being show this system 
tracking well S and E of Nova scotia late next week, but given 
long range model uncertainty of track and tmg of systems 
movg N out of the tropics this far out in tm, we will be keeping 
an eye on this system thru the weekend into erly next week.


NEAR TERM: Tonight through Friday night

Friday...VFR. Breezy out of the northwest.

SHORT TERM: Fri night through Tue...VFR all sites except MVFR 
clgs possible KFVE and KCAR Fri eve. Mainly lgt winds.


NEAR TERM: A southerly swell will bring seas up tonight, however
winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels 
through the period.

SHORT TERM: No hdlns anticipated attm. Went with about 80 to 90
percent of WW3/NWPS wv ht guidance blend throughout, with NWPS 
emphasized for near shore waters. Wv spectral groups will be at
arnd 6 sec for short fetch wind directions in the vcnty of our 
coastal waters and 10 to 12 sec for residual long pd swell from 
low pres systems well out into the open Atlc.





Near Term...Hewitt