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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCAR 221425
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1025 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will stall over the eastern Maritimes through the
weekend. High pressure will gradually build toward the region
from the west Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10:00 AM Update: Chgs this update included adjusting fcst hrly 
PoPs, cld cvr, temps/dwpts into the aftn. PoPs were adjusted to
delay cnvctn onset mainly for Wrn and Srn ptns of the FA to the
tm when cnvctv temps were met msly midday and aftn. We also 
added a mention of small hail with any tstm due to relative low 
fzg and -20 deg C lvls for this aftn's fcst soundings. Cld cvr 
was adjusted for both latest sat imagery trends and to 
proportionately to PoPs later this aftn. Lastly, latest sfc obs
were used to adjust fcst hrly temps/dwpts into the aftn hrs with
only fcst hi temps alg the Downeast coast raised a deg or two
due to msly offshore winds xpctd.

Orgnl Disc: Intense low pressure will slowly drift to the east 
of Nova Scotia today as strong high pressure builds across the 
Great Lakes. Both of these systems will combine to produce gusty
winds across our region this later this morning and this 
afternoon. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are possible 
across southern and western portions of the region this 
afternoon as a trough moves through the northwesterly flow. 
Expect gradual clearing tonight as high pressure builds in.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Blocky pattern wl continue thru the short term as upr low rmns 
trapped in the Maritimes. This wl keep cyclonic flow acrs CWA thru 
Mon before it begins to loosen it's grip on the state. Hv cont'd 
with no pops thru the pd but subtle and hard-to-time minor 
disturbances may give way to sprinkles throughout mid-week. 

Sunday will feature mostly sunny skies along with breezy conds as 
pressure gradient rmns tight. Clr skies on Sun night along with 
cooler temps aloft wl lkly be the colder night with temps in the 40s 
acrs the north and nr 50 in Downeast. 

Ridge axis wl bisect the region on Mon night with mins dipping blo 
normal once again under clr skies and winds decoupling. Upr lvl 
ridging wl be building ahd of next system entering into the Great 
Lakes by 12z Tue

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ridge wl slowly begin to break down ahd of next trof but wl lkly 
hold tight ovr CWA thru the day on Tuesday. Rain will lkly be 
delayed until Tue evng bfr overspreading entire area drg the ovrngt 
hours. Low pressure ovr James Bay wl lkly drag an occluded front 
thru on Wed mrng with showers continuing bhnd it on Wed. Low ovr 
James Bay bcms vertically stacked by mid-week with wk troffiness 
expected to plague the northeast thru the end of the pd.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions today and tonight.

SHORT TERM: VFR expected Sunday through Tuesday. An isolated
shower may produce MVFR restrictions briefly at FVE, CAR, PQI
and HUL as an upper low remains to our east through the day
Monday. MVFR/IFR restrictions begin to move into Downeast
terminals Tue evening ahead of next system and spreading north
and east through the day Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM to initialize the wind grids. For 
Waves: Expect off-shore wind wave to be the primary wave system 
today and tonight. Total Water Level: Current observations along
the coast indicate the Base Tide Anomaly has increased to 
around +0.70 so will adjust to that level for the next 24 hours 
then gradually low the anomaly.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas remain below SCA levels through mid-
week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Farrar
Aviation...VJN/Farrar
Marine...VJN/Farrar