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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCAR 252218
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
618 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An occluded front approaching from the west will cross the area
overnight. Low pressure over central Canada combined with weak 
high pressure off the coast will maintain a warm and humid flow 
of air through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
600 PM Update: Chgs this update included 1) advcng the tmg of 
more opaque cld cvr to the NB border by erly eve based on latest
sat imagery, 2) increasing higher trrn winds ovrngt based on 
blended GFS/NAM progged sounding winds, and lastly 3), updating
fcst hrly temps/dwpts into the ovrngt hrs using both obsvd hi 
temps from this aftn and latest sfc obs to unchgd fcst ovrngt 
lows.

Orgnl Disc: Low pressure lifting through eastern Ontario 
tonight will bring an occluded front into the area this 
evening. Clouds will continue to increase this evening and some 
rain showers are likely later this evening through the overnight
period. A weak secondary low will try to form along the coastal
front over southern New England overnight. Most of the shower 
activity will be likely along, and just north of this weak 
secondary as it pushes just south of our coast. Rainfall will be
lighter and more spotty further north. The occluded front will 
dissipate and continue east into New Brunswick on Wednesday. Low
pressure over James Bay combined with high pressure just south 
of the Maritimes will channel warm and humid air north into the 
area on Wednesday. A low overcast will linger Wednesday morning 
followed by some breaks of sunshine, especially over central and
western areas, during the afternoon. Soundings showers a stable
layer across the area Wednesday. However, there is just a 
slight chance of a stray thundershower along the western edge of
our area late in the day as an upper trough to the west 
approaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak ridge of higher pressure will retreat to the east as a 
cold front moves into NW Maine at the start of the period. The 
front will move into central Maine morning bringing showers, the
east of the area in the afternoon, a secondary boundary will 
move into western Maine in the afternoon bringing showers and 
isolated thunderstorms to the area. This boundary will clear the
area early Friday morning. Higher pressure will briefly ridge 
in Friday morning. A trough moving around an upper low over 
northern Quebec will move through northern and eastern Maine 
Friday afternoon. 

The models they were in good agreement overall through the short
term of the forecast period. Loaded a blend of the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM to smooth out the minor differences in the
models.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A upper level low over Northern Quebec will be the primary 
weather maker through the extended period. It will spin off 
trough on a regular basis through the period producing showers 
and isolated thunderstorms. There will be brief periods of fair 
weather between the troughs 

Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models. Used
NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Ceilings will lower to MVFR this evening then IFR
overnight in lowering clouds and some fog. IFR conditions
Wednesday morning will likely improve to MVFR and possibly VFR
at times during the midday and afternoon. 

SHORT TERM: Generally MVFR conditions through the period with
unsettle weather conditions. Periods of IFR conditions during
showers and thunderstorms, then conditions will return to MVFR.
A few hours of VFR flight conditions followed by several hours
of MVFR to IFR with showers and or thunderstorms will continue
through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A few wind gusts out of the south may approach 25 kt
late tonight. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to be below
SCA tonight and Wednesday. 

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory levels
through the period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Norton
Long Term...Norton
Aviation...VJN/Norton
Marine...VJN/Norton