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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCAR 220219
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
919 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west tonight and Friday and
crest over the area Friday night into Saturday. Low pressure 
will approach from the southwest Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
9:19 pm update: Low pressure in New Brunswick continues to pull
away from the region. Satellite pictures and observations 
indicate that cloud cover is quite variable across the the FA 
with some spots clear while others are cloudy. The trend 
overnight will be for Down East areas to become mainly clear 
while northern areas will average out to partly cloudy. There 
are still a few isolated snow showers/flurries, mainly in 
southeast Aroostook County into northern Washington County. A 
seasonably cold air mass overnight will allow lows to slip back 
into the single digits far north, teens central portions of the 
FA, with upper teens to mid 20s Down East. Did lower the hourly 
temps and overnight lows a bit in the far north where the latest
observations and expected conditions would indicate that it 
will likely get several degrees colder than currently forecast. 

Previous discussion:
Low pressure will continue to track away to the east tonight. A
surface trough hanging back across the north may allow some 
flurries and snow showers to continue over northern areas early 
this evening. Otherwise, tonight will become partly cloudy north
and mostly clear Downeast as the low continues to move away and
high pressure begins to build in from the west. This will be 
followed by a dry, breezy and seasonable day Friday as high 
pressure builds closer. The north will remain partly cloudy with
just a bit of moisture sliding in from the northwest while 
Downeast becomes mostly clear. The breeze will diminish Friday 
night as high pressure builds in. Some moisture continuing to 
linger over the north will bring a partly cloudy sky to the 
north while Downeast remains mostly clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A quiet and cool Saturday with high pressure overhead as the 
ridge crests during the afternoon. This downstream amplification
is a result of digging trough in the west ahead of next dynamic
system Sunday into Monday.

Low pressure will strengthen over the Texas Panhandle Saturday
evening and track into the Great Lakes through Sunday morning.
Potent 500mb jet will track from the Plains and orient across
the Ohio Valley with exit region supporting surface low
development off the New England coast. This will create a
overrunning snow event for Maine with all locations beginning as
snow Sunday morning. Timing has trended slower, as have
temperatures cooler. This is in anticipation of secondary low
pressure development limiting the amount of southerly warm air
advection. Will need to keep an eye on wind components and how
influential cold air damming will be. This would keep lower
levels cool, while warm nose looks to move in aloft. As a
result, have put a transition to sleet and snow across much of
Downeast. If a coastal front develops, further limitation of
warm air moving in will result, but not enough to keep immediate
coast below freezing, resulting in rain.

System will begin to exit Sunday night as Monday highs could be
set before daybreak in portions of Downeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pres is expected to pull through the Maritimes on Monday. We
will be dealing w/some wrap around snow mainly across the north
and west. Decided to go w/60-70% pops for Monday across the
northern 1/2 of the CWA and run w/20-40% into the Maine Central
Highlands and portions of interior Downeast. WNW winds will be 
cranking on Monday w/the tight pres gradient. Followed GYX's 
thinking and increased the wind speeds going w/sustained speeds 
of 15-25 mph and gust potential to 35+ mph. This will lead to 
blowing and drifting snow especially for the northern and 
western areas. Downeast areas might see limited blowing/drifting
due to the mixed precip that is possible Sunday night. Near 
normal temps for Monday. Arctic air arriving Monday night and 
w/winds staying above 10 mph, there could be some wind chills to
deal with overnight into Tuesday morning. High pres is expected
to settle across the region later Tuesday night and remain in 
control through Thursday. We could be looking at some very cold
temps Wednesday morning and again Thursday morning w/many sites
across the north and west seeing readings well below 0F.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Predominately VFR through Friday, but with patches of
MVFR late this evening and into early Fri morning, mainly at the
northern terminals. 

SHORT TERM: Conditions are expected to be VFR into Saturday
evening and then a deterioration to MVFR later Saturday night.
Conditions will continue to deteriorate on Sunday into Monday 
to IFR/LIFR w/snow and increasing winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SCA will continue through Friday morning for
northwest winds gusting up to 25 kt. Winds will diminish Friday
afternoon into Friday night as high pressure builds in. 

SHORT TERM: No headlines into Saturday night w/winds down to
10-15 kts and seas 2-3 ft. Seas will build on Sunday w/winds
increasing from SE. We could be looking at Gales later Sunday
right into Monday as the 2nd low is expected to develop along
coast and intensify as it moves NE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The seasonal snowfall total is up to 136.3" as of 7 pm EST at 
Caribou. This is just shy of the winter of 2007-2008 when 137.6"
of snow had been observed through February 21st. 2007-2008 went
on to become the snowy winter on record at Caribou with a total
of 197.8".

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer/CB
Short Term...Cornwell/Hewitt
Long Term...Cornwell/Hewitt
Aviation...Bloomer/CB/Cornwell/Hewitt
Marine...Bloomer/CB/Cornwell/Hewitt
Climate...CB