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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

FXUS61 KCAR 190747

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
347 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

A warm front will lift north of the region today as low pressure
passes to the north of the area this morning. The front will
push back south as a cold front tonight and will stall out
across central Maine late tonight. The region will remain in a
very moist air mass this weekend and into early next week.  
Another weather system will likely affect the area Tuesday 
night into Wednesday.


Low pressure is visible on satellite pictures just west of 
Quebec City early this morning. The low will tack to our north 
and across the Gaspe Peninsula later this morning and pull away 
this afternoon. This will allow the warm front that lifts north 
of the area early this morning to push back to the south as a 
cold front today with a cooler low level air mass pushing into 
northern areas, mainly north of the Katahdin Region today. The 
front will sink south into the central highlands and the upper 
Penobscot valley tonight. One batch of rain will move out of 
northern area early this morning with another area of rain 
expected to develop this afternoon. The frontal boundary will 
provide the focus for more widespread rain across the region 
tonight, with the heaviest rain expected along and north of the 
front. It will likely more showery with areas of drizzle and fog
closer to the coast. 


Frontal boundary remains over central portions of the forecast 
area on Saturday with the heavier rain continuing along and 
north of the front, heavier and the morning and beginning to
lighten up in the afternoon. Chilly in the north with highs in
the 40s, but milder south of the front with temperatures
approaching 60. The stalled front lifts north Saturday night as
a warm front, with temperatures rising many areas overnight. 
Mild and somewhat muggy on Sunday with a south breeze. Rain 
Saturday night into Sunday won't be as heavy as the rain Friday
night and Saturday morning, but still will amount to another
quarter to half inch. With the moist airmass and rain, fog will
be an issue especially at night but perhaps during the day
Saturday and Sunday as well. 


Low confidence in forecast details Monday and beyond as models
are in poor agreement. On Monday, closed upper low over the 
Mid Atlantic may move northeast toward New England bringing
another shot of rain Monday and Monday night. Went with likely
precip chances over far Eastern Maine with chance of precip
elsewhere. Another potential weather system moving in from the
west Tuesday night into Wednesday. This is a fairly new feature
in the operational models though it does have some ensemble
buy-in too. Some models even have this system cold enough for
accumulating snow in the north. Definitely something to watch. 
After that, appears quiet for Thursday.

NEAR TERM: LIFR to IFR expected most of the time today and tonight 
in low clouds along with patchy fog.  Areas of fog are possible 
tonight.  LLWS is expected at times through tonight at the Down East 
terminals with a sw wind around 50 knots at 2 k ft agl.  LLWS is not 
expected to be a concern at the northern terminals as the flow 
gradually backs into the northeast in the wake of the cold front 
passage later today. 

SHORT TERM: IFR and LIFR persisting for many areas through
Sunday night with rain and fog. Some improvement possible Monday
and Tuesday though forecast confidence is low.


NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory will remain in effect through
tonight. A southwest wind will gust to 30 knots at times 
through tonight. Seas of 8 to 11 feet are expected on the 
coastal waters and 4 to 7 feet along the intra-coastal waters. 

SHORT TERM: Small craft winds persist into Sunday morning then
improve to below small craft levels. However, seas will remain
at or above 5 feet over the coastal waters through Tuesday. 

A flood warning remains in effect today along a portion of the 
Aroostook River. The gauge at Washburn is reading 17 feet as of 
early this morning, which is moderate flood stage. The gauge 
will continue to show fluctuations today and Aroostook Emergency
Management reported that Gardner Creek Road and Castle Hill 
Hill Road near Washburn remains closed due to an ice jam, that 
extends from the Washburn bridge down into Crouseville. 
Emergency Management is also watching the Parsons Road between 
Washburn and Presque Isle.

A flood warning also remains in effect for the Mattawamkeag
above Mattawamkeag until further notice. The river is at 14 feet
early this morning and is expected to slowly rise to 15.1 feet
by Sunday afternoon, with additional rises into early next week.
At 14 feet, flooding begins along the Bancroft Road between
Wytopitlock and Danforth.

A flood watch has been issued for Saturday through Monday
evening. The combination of rainfall of 1.5 to 3 inches of rain
along with significant snowmelt in areas that still have snow 
on the ground will lead to significant rises on streams this 
weekend and on rivers this weekend and into early next week. 
There is high confidence that smaller streams will flood. There 
is also high confidence that some areas will experience moderate
to major flooding. Confidence is not as high as to whether any 
areas experience record flooding, but it is a possibility.
Rivers in the far north such as the Aroostook and Saint John
that still have ice will continue to have the risk of ice jams
until the flows increase later in the weekend and also of the
ice is flushed out of the rivers. 


ME...Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Monday evening for 
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ050>052.



Near Term...CB
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy