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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCAR 182026
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
326 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian High pressure will build across the region overnight 
into Wednesday then move Wednesday night. Low pressure from the
great lakes will approach Wednesday night and cross the area on
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Latest radar ref shows sn winding down ovr Downeast areas with
reported snfl at KBGR and KBHB airports about to end within the
next hr to hr and a hlf, so we will not mention any sn in the
erly eve zone fcst wording ovr this area. Otherwise, skies will
begin to clr from NW to SE across the FA ovrngt. Winds will be a
bit more breezy ovrngt, spcly hier trrn, as a renewed surge of 
arctic air advcs N to S across the FA behind the exiting s/wv 
movg ESE of Nova Scotia. Despite this, winds may be able to
decouple ovr major vly areas, spcly Wrn vlys late tngt into 
erly Tue morn. This will result in pockets of very cold morn 
lows as a shallow arctic invsn forms ovr these vlys, but in
saying this, we do not xpct temps to reach lows erly morn lows
Tue quite as low attm ovr Nrn Vlys as erly this morn. Bottom
line, the wind chill adv for the N will likely be a marginal
one for wind speeds, spcly ovr broad vly areas.

On Tue, a Nrn br s/wv from N Cntrl Can will likely result in 
daytm SC cld cvr from late morn onward across the N and Cntrl 
ptns of the FA as indicated by the SC tool, with sct flurries 
possible mostly across the N. Hi temps Tue aftn will be a few 
deg F colder than tdy due to slightly colder aftn 925mb temps 
alf.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure moves in Tuesday night. Could get very cold if 
atmosphere decouples, but center of high pressure will just be 
nudging into western portions of the area toward the end of the 
night. Went for some decoupling far west with coldest 
temperatures there, but little decoupling elsewhere. Regardless,
looks like a cold night with zero to 5 above Downeast and zero 
to 20 below north.

High pressure for Wednesday with mostly sunny skies and seasonably
cold temperatures.

Next system on track for late Wednesday night into Thursday.
This will be a warm advection snow event with low pressure
approaching Northern Maine from Quebec and a secondary low
developing in the Gulf of Maine. Confidence in this system is
quite high for it still being several days out, with models in
good agreement with each other and run to run. Looks like a low
end advisory event for most areas with generally 3 to 5 inches
of snow. Event will feature warm advection and toward the end of
the event, could briefly change to rain from Bangor to the
coast, but most areas will see snow for most of the event. 

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cold advection resumes Thursday night as low pressure kicks off
to the east and precipitation tapers off. Friday will be cool
and breezy. Bumped up model PoPs to chance levels in the north
for Friday due to pattern recognition of it being a good pattern
for scattered snow showers in northwest flow. 

For Saturday, some models have a very weak system mainly in the
north, but odds favor it being dry.

Next system looks like it could be a prolonged one from late
Saturday night to Monday night. Plenty of disagreement on
specifics this far out, but virtually all models and model
ensembles have some precipitation and active weather during this
period. Rain/snow line will probably be an issue at least for
parts of this period mainly central and southern portions of the
area, and icy precipitation is a possibility with this pattern
as well. 

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are xpctd across the TAF sites
tonight, with current IFR/MVFR clgs/vsbys in sn at KBGR and 
KBHB xpctd to transition back to VFR once the sn exits E.

SC cld cvr will advc across Nrn TAF sites durg the day Tue with
potential of MVFR clg hts and possible slight reductions in 
vsby with sn flurries.

SHORT TERM: VFR Tuesday night into Wednesday evening, then IFR
likely with the next weather system Thursday. Generally
improving to VFR Thursday night and Friday, though some MVFR
could persist in the north.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Will cont with the Small Craft Advisory currently in
effect overnight thru Tue with a frzg spray adv for mdt frzg 
spray after midnight and contg thru Tue morn. Went with fcst wv
hts about a foot abv WW3 wv guidance for both tngt and Tue based
on bias trends shown by buoy obs thru tdy.

SHORT TERM: Moderate freezing spray likely again Tuesday night,
with small craft conditions persisting until Wednesday when high
pressure builds in. Small craft conditions resuming Thursday and
Thursday night with the next weather system.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Chill Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for 
     MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 5 AM EST 
     Wednesday for ANZ050>052.
     Freezing Spray Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST 
     Tuesday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...VJN/Foisy
Marine...VJN/Foisy