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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCAR 221006
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
606 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the area this morning. Low pressure
will cross the Gulf of Maine Monday night into Tuesday. Another
area of low pressure will cross the region on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6am Update...
No changes needed other than to copy in current conditions and
interpolate to inherited forecast.

Previous Discussion...
Other than flooding, main hazard in the near term is the dense 
fog early this morning. Dense fog advisory in effect for all but
far north/northwest. Weak cold front is drifting south through 
the area, with much less fog behind the front as slightly 
cooler, drier air moves in. As of 3am, cold front is near 
Caribou where fog has cleared out, and the Saint John Valley 
(already behind the cold front) has had less fog tonight. Expect
clearing of the fog most areas this morning as the front 
progresses south through the area. Looking for a partly cloudy 
day in the north today, but cloudy skies should persist for 
Downeast. Highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Low pressure will be approaching from the south, with another
round of rain tonight. The rain will be mostly in Downeast Maine
tonight as the system approaches from the south. Expecting
around a third of an inch of rain by dawn Tuesday Downeast, 
with the northern edge of the precipitation reaching about a 
Houlton to Greenville line by dawn Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Models indicate a rather compact rn shield to affect Downeast
and E Cntrl ptns of the FA Tue morn as the remnant upper low 
moves NE from the Mid Atlc states to Srn New Brunswick by late 
tue aftn. Max QPF with this event will be in the 0.25 to 0.50 
inches with amts rapidly tapering off N and W. Colder llvl air
will arrive to spcly Nrn ptns of the FA between systems Tue ngt
with llvl cold air damming from Nrn NB and Ern QB. In fact,
enough cold air may be present for mixed rain...sleet and snow
for ptns of the far N late Tue ngt and Wed morn when precip
arrives with the next s/wv and associated sfc low from the 
upper great lks.

Any mixed precip across the far N should transition to all rn
late Wed morn with little or no snow/sleet accumulation with all
other areas experiencing all rn from late Tue ngt into erly Wed
eve. Max total QPFs of 0.35 to 0.50 inches with 90+ percent PoPs 
with this system will be across the N with lesser amts and PoPs 
Cntrl and Downeast. Colder air will work in behind the sfc and
upper low as they cross Cntrl ptns of the FA ovrngt Wed allowing
steady rn to end as sct sn shwrs across the N late Wed ngt with
little in the way of accumulation.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thu looks to be drier but msly cldy, and cool. Other s/wvs from
S Cntrl Can will keep the wx cool and unsettled across the Rgn 
by Fri aftn into Sun with a chc of daytime rn shwrs and late 
ngt/erly morn sn shwrs. All and all, not very spring like, but
certainly not unheard of for Northern and eastern Maine in the
closing days of Apr.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: As of 6am, LIFR conditions are present from KPQI 
south to the coast in low clouds and fog. Expect significant 
improvement to VFR by midday tonight north of KBGR. However, 
only modest improvement KBGR and KBHB with conditions remaining 
IFR or low MVFR into the afternoon. For tonight, generally VFR 
north of KBGR, MVFR or IFR for KBGR, and IFR for KBHB.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Msly MVFR clgs and vsbys Tue thru Wed ngt in
shwrs with intervals of IFR clgs and or vsbys in more organized
precip mainly Tue morn and again very late Tue ngt til erly Wed
eve. Otherwise, conditions improve to VFR for Thu and Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds are below small craft today, but will pick up 
to small craft tonight for all but the inside waters as low
pressure approaches from the south. Seas are small craft for 
all but the inside waters through the whole period. To keep 
things simple, in collaboration with Gray office, converted 
small craft for seas to a generic small craft and extended into 
Tuesday morning.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA seas and/or wvs will cont Tue then drop
below SCA thresholds Tue ngt and cont so thru the remainder of 
the week. Kept close to a WW3/NWPS guidance blend for fcst wv
hts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Southern rivers and streams look like they have crested and look
like they will remain below flood stage and remain within their
banks. Decision Sunday afternoon was to remove MEZ011,015,31-32
from the Flood Watch since additional rainfall will be minimal 
to cause any substantial rises. The Flood Watch remains up for 
the northern zones since some snowmelt and runoff will continue 
due to the mild temps. 

Areal Flood Warning was replaced with flood advisory for Eastern
Aroostook County as streams are beginning to subside and larger
rivers are beginning to level off.

River Flood Warning for MATM1 and points north, remain in 
place until further notice. Aroostook River looks like it is 
ice free. Additional snowmelt will lead to further increases on
the St. John and Fish River. River Flood Warning is in place for
the St. John at Fort Kent. The Big Black River looks to be ice 
affected as it keeps spiking above 12.0 ft, which is flood 
stage. 

Some more rain is expected Tuesday and again Wednesday but QPF 
not expected to really impact the main stem rivers with any 
sharp rises.

Will have to keep a close eye on the Fish River Chain of Lakes
through the next week or two, as water levels are beginning to
rise and this area typically peaks late. Concerned about
potential for flooding like occurred last spring in this area.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The snow depth early this morning at Caribou has finally dropped
to a trace. Caribou has set a record streak for consecutive days
of one inch or more of snow on the ground at 163 days, with one
inch or more on the ground from November 10 to April 21. 
Previous record was 155 days in 2002/2003.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch through this evening for MEZ001>006-010.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Foisy
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Foisy/VJN
Marine...Foisy/VJN
Hydrology...Foisy/VJN
Climate...Foisy