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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCAR 170410
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1210 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will form along a stalled frontal boundary in the
Gulf of Maine overnight and move eastward into the Canadian 
Maritimes Monday. High pressure builds from Quebec Monday into 
Tuesday night. A front will stall over southern New England 
Wednesday and Thursday, with waves of low pressure riding along 
it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1210 AM Update: No significant changes from previous forecast.
Minor adjustments to temps and skycon. Fog has settled in, in
the BHB region. Lower cigs showing up in the BGR area. 

Orgnl Disc: A wave is currently propagating eastward along the 
stalled frontal boundary in the Gulf of Maine. This wave will 
spread rainshowers along the coast this afternoon into the 
evening, but shouldn't spread any further northward than the 
Bangor area. Very humid air is moving eastward and along the 
boundary and will be drawn northward as another cold front moves
towards the coast this evening. This means fog will develop 
along the coast this evening and will spread northward towards 
Bangor as well as interior Hancock and Washington counties. As 
this cold front in the northern stream phases with the stalled 
front in the Gulf of Maine...and an upper level shortwave 
rotates southward from Quebec, cyclogenesis will occur in the 
Gulf of Maine. However, this low will quickly exit eastward into
the Canadian Maritimes tonight into Monday and precip will only
amount to around a maximum of a tenth of an inch along the 
Hancock County coast. The main effect of the low will be to pull
dry Canadian air southward and clear out the fog by later 
tonight. High pressure will build southeast behind the low 
through Monday and ensure dry conditions and seasonable 
temperatures. There will be sufficient H850 moisture for fair
wx cumulus across for most of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The region will be under locally zonal flow aloft Monday night-
Tuesday night. With no significant shortwaves forecast to be
embedded int his flow during this time range, it should be dry,
with partly to mostly clear sky conditions. Temperatures should
be near to slightly above normal.

A weak 700-500 hPa shortwave approaches Wednesday afternoon. So
while the morning should be dry, there could be some isolated 
to scattered showers Wednesday afternoon. The best chance for 
any showers will be over the Northern Maine. Highs on Wednesday 
should be near to slightly above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A northern stream trough approaches Wednesday night, with the
best chance for any showers once again over the North.

The models then differ with where and when this northern stream
trough phases with the southern stream. The ECMWF is slower with
the eastward profession of the northern stream trough across SE
Canada, so phases it with the southern stream sooner, resulting
in a more unified and progressive push of the southern stream
short wave off the eastern seaboard. The GFS is a bit quicker to
push the core of the northern stream trough east, resulting in a
more E-W strung out tail to the trough, so it phases later with
the southern stream (and is less progressive in passing it
offshore as a result). The CMC is similar to the ECMWF in its
timing. As a result, have leaned towards the ECMWF/CMC from
Thursday through Saturday.

A shortwave trough pushes through on Thursday, ahead of the main
northern stream trough. This should trigger some scattered
showers over the region. With only a few hungered J/kg of CAPE
progged and Showalter Indices generally 4 or higher, have left
thunder out of the forecast for now.

As the streams phase, a coastal low should develop Thursday 
night and reach the vicinity of Southern New England/Long Island
by Friday morning, spreading rain over at least the southern
half of the CWA and possibly into the North as well. This low
should then track to south of Nova Scotia by Friday evening, as
the phased trough slides offshore. Rain chance s should diminish
from NW to SE over the area on Friday as a result. It should be 
dry Friday night, but have slight chance pops in in case a GFS 
like solution ends up occurring.

The axis of the northern stream trough passes through on
Saturday, so should see some scattered showers with that.

Deep layered ridging builds in Saturday night and Sunday, so it
should be dry.

Temperatures should be near to a few degrees below normal
Wednesday night-Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: All sites will remain VFR except towards the coast
where fog and low clouds will be an issue. BHB, Machias and
Eastport will have fog rolling in this evening, but the fog will
exit by daybreak. The fog will move far enough north to affect
BGR for several hours later this evening into the night.

SHORT TERM: There is a chance for MVFR or lower conditions
Downeast Tuesday night. It should then be VFR on Wednesday. 
MVFR or lower conditions are then possible again Downeast
Wednesday night. MVFR conditions are possible Thursday with any
showers, otherwise it should be MVFR. IFR or lower conditions
are probable Downeast and Bangor Thursday night and Friday and 
MVFR-IFR conditions possible farther north.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Fog is the primary concern for this afternoon through
the night as humid air moves over the cold waters. Fog will 
exit the waters late tonight into early Monday morning as drier 
air arrives from the north.

SHORT TERM: Winds should be around 10 kt or less from Monday
night-Friday over all waters. As a result, sub-SCA conditions
are likely during this time frame. However, depending on the 
exact track and strength of a possible coastal low tracking to 
the south late this week, there is a low chance for SCA 
conditions on the coastal ocean waters by Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Norton
Short Term...Maloit
Long Term...Maloit
Aviation...Norton/Maloit
Marine...Norton/Maloit