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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCAR 170759
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
359 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across Quebec will build into Maine this evening
and will move to the south of Nova Scotia Thursday. A warm front
will cross the region Thursday night and will be followed by a
mild and humid air mass Friday into Sunday.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure across Quebec will build into Maine today cresting 
over the region around midnight tonight. The high will retreat 
to the south of Nova Scotia by 12Z Thu. There will be some 
clouds that linger into the morning, especially across the 
eastern half of the FA. All areas should become mostly sunny by 
this afternoon. It will remain a bit breezy, although not as 
windy as Tuesday. The strongest wind will be in the morning and 
early afternoon, with the wind diminishing mid-late afternoon as
the high moves closer to the region. The air mass moderates in 
the low levels with 925H temps about +2c warmer this afternoon 
compared to yesterday. The combo of a slightly warmer air mass 
and a lot more in the way of sunshine will lead to a seasonable 
afternoon with highs in the m/u 40s north to the mid 50s Down 
East. Tonight will be clear and cold with lows mostly in the 20s
north with upper 20s to low 30s Down East. The normally colder 
broad northwest valleys where there is still significant snow 
may drop into the teens, and did make some adjustments to lower 
the low temperatures a bit. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A strong area of high pressure will continue east into the open
Atlantic on Thursday. Meanwhile, a complex area of low pressure
will slowly approach from the west. An increasingly moist
southerly flow between these two systems can be expected
Thursday and Thursday night. Thursday will start off dry, but
showers are expected later in the day as a warm front lifts 
north across the region. The front will be north of the region 
Thursday night. Thursday night will be a mainly cloudy night 
with a few showers, along with patchy fog and drizzle,
especially across downeast areas. Friday will be a mainly 
cloudy and unseasonably mild day. With the moist air mass in 
place, a few showers will be possible, especially across the 
north. Highs away from the coast will climb into the mid 50s to 
near 60 degrees. 

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The weather pattern stays unsettled right through the weekend as
the closed upper low remains to our west, and high pressure 
remains to our east Friday night through Saturday. A moist 
southerly flow between these systems keeps the threat of showers
going right through Saturday. The upper low will transition to 
an open wave Saturday night and then move northeast across the 
region on Sunday. This will keep a continued threat for showers 
across the region. A drier weather pattern returns for early 
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: A few patches of MVFR are possible until around 12-14Z
at the Aroostook County terminals, otherwise VFR expected today
and tonight at the northern and eastern Maine terminals. 

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions early Thursday will be followed by 
occasional MVFR/IFR Thursday night through Sunday in showers,
patchy fog and drizzle at times.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have cancelled the SCA for the intra-coastal waters 
as the wind has diminished, but will keep the SCA going on the 
coastal waters as gusts are running around 25 knots at the 
Eastern Maine Shelf and Jonesport buoys with seas around 5 feet.
It looks like the SCA will likely be able to be dropped a 
little later in the morning. 

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels on Thursday.
Winds/seas will then increase to SCA levels Thursday night, and
possibly gales on Friday. Visibility will be reduced in 
showers, drizzle, and patchy fog Thursday night through Friday 
night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The main focus the next 24 hours will be on the far northern 
Maine Rivers along parts of the Aroostook and Saint John Rivers.
The water levels continue to rise at the Washburn gage which is
now at moderate flood stage. Flooding will likely continue on 
Gardner Creek Road, and the water may threaten some structures. 
Slow rises are expected to continue until the ice gets flushed 
out. Water levels are also continuing to rise at Fort Kent where
there is an old ice jam from December just downriver of the 
gage. Will keep the flood watch going today across northern 
Aroostook County as new jams and pre-existing jams may result in
rapid fluctuations and possible flooding.

The Mattawamkeag River at Mattawamkeag continues to slowly rise and 
is approaching minor flood stage early this morning. The river will 
slowly rise over the next 24 hours and there could be some flooding 
by later today or tonight along the Bancroft Road between 
Wytopitlock and Danforth. 

No new information from calls to law enforcement early this 
morning on the flooding at Island Falls, and until there is 
updated information that Route 2 has been re-opened will 
maintain the flood advisory. 

Unseasonably warm and humid conditions will continue late week 
and into the weekend. Showers and possibly a heavier band of 
rain Sunday will continue to pose a flooding risk. Greatest 
concerns at this time are for the Aroostook, Big Black, 
Allagash, St. John and Fish Rivers over the north where lots of 
snow remains over the highlands.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch through this afternoon for MEZ001-002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB
Short Term...Duda
Long Term...Duda
Aviation...CB/Duda
Marine...CB/Duda
Hydrology...CB/Duda