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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCAR 150013
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
813 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will exit the state overnight with high pressure 
building in Monday and Tuesday. A stalled frontal boundary will 
impact the area Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
815 PM Update...
Let the Beach Hazard expire for the coast. Radar was showing
some widely scattered showers w/a couple of isold tstms. Earlier
this afternoon, tstms had some small hail w/them. Activity has
been winding down w/the loss of heating. The latest HRRR and RAP
were matching close to the radar showing the decreasing. Decided
to use this blend and shift higher pops to coast early this
evening. Action should just be about done by 03-04Z. Adjusted
the hrly temps/dewpoints matching w/the latest obs. Dewpoints
were dropping off and will continue this trend overnight. Sky
conditions were tweaked using the IR satl imagery showing clouds
hanging on a bit longer through the evening. Rest of the
forecast looks fine.

Previous Discussion...
Showers and storms, some of which have small hail, are 
occurring this afternoon with a surface cold front. The cold 
front will move through late this afternoon into this evening, 
with shower activity dying off quickly after sunset. Somewhat 
drier air moves in from the northwest late tonight into Monday. 
Dry, breezy, and partly cloudy to mostly sunny on Monday with 
high pressure beginning to build in from the west. Temperatures 
near or a touch above average. Not enough instability for shower
activity on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The short term will feature above normal temperatures and increasingly 
humid weather conditions.

Monday night starts off with H700-H500 ridging building across the
region in the wake of the departing Maritimes trof. This will 
set the stage for a mainly clear and seasonably cool night with 
lows generally in the mid to upper 50s. 

The H700-H500 ridge remains through midday Tuesday before an
approaching short wave from Quebec moves east during Tuesday 
afternoon. For the most part Tuesday looks like a dry day, as 
the best moisture and forcing remains to the north of the state.
That being said, have included low chance (30%) pops for a 
shower for the far northwest and St. John Valley late Tuesday 
and Tuesday evening. With little in the way of SB CAPE, will 
not include mention of thunder. Otherwise, Tuesday night will be
a mild and dry night in advance of an approaching cold front 
from Quebec. 

The cold front will slowly slide across the region on Wednesday
with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Looks like the best
chance for storms will be across the downeast region. Couldn't
rule out a stronger storm or two Wednesday afternoon downeast. 
Appears the main threat would be gusty winds as opposed to hail,
as freezing levels are forecast to be high. Wednesday will be a
very warm and muggy day, with highs across downeast areas 
climbing well into the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Continued warm and muggy weather is expected to continue into
the long term as frontal boundary stalls out just to our south
Wednesday night into Thursday. Couldn't rule out a few showers 
or even an isolated thunderstorm later Thursday afternoon into 
Thursday evening as the front begins work back to the north. 
Otherwise, expect continued above normal temperatures and muggy 
conditions to persist right through Friday. Generally dry and 
continued unseasonably warm weather will then continue right 
into much of next weekend. A strong upper ridge will remain 
across the central U.S. through the mid atlantic region. Far 
northern Maine will remain in a more or less zonal flow through 
the weekend, with the potential for any embedded weak short 
waves to produce a stray shower, but no organized or persistent
rainfall is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR through Monday and breezy from the W/NW
mainly during daytime hours. Possible exceptions are localized 
MVFR/IFR in any of this afternoon's showers and storms, and
possible (low confidence) MVFR ceilings around daybreak Monday
in far NE Maine.


SHORT TERM: Outlook Monday night thru Thursday

Mon Night and Tue...VFR with light Southwest winds.

Wed...VFR. Chance of shower or tstm with possible brief MVFR or
lower conditions in any heavier showers or tstms, especially 
KBGR/KBHB.

Thu...VFR. Chance of shower.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Conditions remaining below small craft levels. Marine
fog has dissipated.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below SCA levels
through the period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Foisy/Hewitt
Short Term...Duda
Long Term...Duda
Aviation...Foisy/Hewitt/Duda
Marine...Foisy/Hewitt/Duda