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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

FXUS61 KCAR 211544

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1144 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

High pressure will be across the region through tonight. A weak 
area of low pressure will cross the area Monday and Tuesday. 
High pressure will begin to build back into the region through 
Wednesday night.


11:45 AM Update...Bright sunshine and strong subsidence is 
allowing temps to rise quickly. Raised midday temps and raised 
highs a couple degrees. 

Previous Discussion...
Surface high pressure will drift over Quebec and northern Maine
through this evening. Main effects of this will be mostly sunny
skies and temps a few degrees cooler than Friday. Light NW flow
will keep much of northern Maine in the 60s, while locations 
further south near Bangor and interior Downeast top out in the 
mid-70s. Offshore flow will let coastal Downeast in on 
temperatures near 70 as well. A few diurnal cumulus will try to 
develop, but as day shift mentioned, very strong subsidence 
along with little moisture in the low levels will keep many 
clouds suppressed. 

The high will continue into the Gulf of Maine Saturday evening,
with winds shifting south and southwest. Overnight lows will
remain cool in the north as the flow pattern does not strengthen
until later Sunday. Downeast will stay a bit warmer overnight as
warm air advection begins. With greater moisture content, clouds
will begin to increase as well from SW to NE. The advancing warm
air overnight sets the stage for a very warm Sunday, especially
those that receive the most sun.


Sun morning wl see sfc high building offshore as return flow returns 
to the region. Sun aftn wl feature H9 temps up around +20C which wl 
lkly yield high temps around 80F for a good chunk of the area tho 
immediate coast wl only warm into the u60s/nr 70 with onshore flow 
throughout the day. 

Sun evng may feature an isold shower in warm advection bfr 
increasing to nr lkly pops acrs the northwest aft 06z. 50-60kt LLJ 
lkly to be present acrs the north btwn 06 and 12z Mon with area in 
RRQ of upr lvl jet streak.  

By 18z Mon all med range guidance indicates cdfnt wl be appchg the 
international border with lkly pops acrs the north in the aftn. 
Temps wl lkly rmn abv normal on Mon but wl be some 5-10 degrees 
cooler acrs the north in cloudy and showery conds. 

Most models are closing off upr lvl energy late Mon night which 
results in cdfnt stalling acrs the CWA as a weak wv rides along the 
bndry ovrngt. Operational GFS is most progressive in driving the 
front thru Tue mrng with GEFS ensemble similar to rmng operational 
runs and wl trend fcst toward a wet soln thru the end of the short 
term pd.


Most of the area wl see showers on Tue as sfc low wl be mvg thru the 
state with H5 low closed off fm the mean flow. Expect that kicker wl 
drop into the nrn Plains Wed mrng with showers pulling into Canada. 
Brief s/wv ridge mvs into the region Wed night bfr next system 
appchs the area on Thu.  Showers may occur thru the end of the week 
as upr trof zips thru bfr ridging starts to build in. Expect that 
temps wl avg out close to normal thru the end of the extndd pd.


NEAR TERM: VFR with NW winds 5-10 kts today, becoming light 
this evening and shifting SW tonight. Some patchy fog is
possible after midnight in valley locations, lowering 
visibilities locally at terminals.

Sun morning through Mon morning...MVFR cigs possible across
northern terminals. VFR cigs expected over Downeast sites. SW
winds 5-10kts. LLWS looks likely over northern terminals Sun

Mon night through Wednesday...MVFR/IFR in showers at all sites
as weak low pressure tracks through the state. Southerly flow
will likely bring IFR vsbys fm BHB to HUL Tue morning into the
afternoon hours. Southwest winds 5kts Mon night for southern
terminals will become nw at all locations by Tue evening.


NEAR TERM: Waves and seas will be below SCA criteria today and 
tonight. Winds gusts will increase ahead of a disturbance late
tonight, 10-15 kts.

SHORT TERM: Seas wl increase to aoa 5ft Sun night into Tue as
weak low pressure tracks north of the waters. Winds will likely
remain just below SCA levels as stable airmass prevents
strongest winds from mixing down to the water.





Near Term...Cornwell/Bloomer
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Farrar