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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

FXUS61 KCAR 171017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
617 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

High pressure across Quebec will build into Maine this evening
and will move to the south of Nova Scotia Thursday. A warm front
will cross the region Thursday night and will be followed by a
mild and humid air mass Friday into Sunday.


6:17 am update: The last few patches of clouds are rapidly 
dissipating with lots of sunshine to start the day. Made some 
adjustments to the sky grids for the next few hours. Otherwise, 
only some minor tweaks to the temperature and wind grids based 
on the latest observations and expected conditions.

Previous discussion:
High pressure across Quebec will build into Maine today 
cresting over the region around midnight tonight. The high will 
retreat to the south of Nova Scotia by 12Z Thu. There will be 
some clouds that linger into the morning, especially across the 
eastern half of the FA. All areas should become mostly sunny by 
this afternoon. It will remain a bit breezy, although not as 
windy as Tuesday. The strongest wind will be in the morning and 
early afternoon, with the wind diminishing mid- late afternoon 
as the high moves closer to the region. The air mass moderates 
in the low levels with 925H temps about +2c warmer this 
afternoon compared to yesterday. The combo of a slightly warmer 
air mass and a lot more in the way of sunshine will lead to a 
seasonable afternoon with highs in the m/u 40s north to the mid 
50s Down East. Tonight will be clear and cold with lows mostly 
in the 20s north with upper 20s to low 30s Down East. The 
normally colder broad northwest valleys where there is still 
significant snow may drop into the teens, and did make some 
adjustments to lower the low temperatures a bit.


A strong area of high pressure will continue east into the open
Atlantic on Thursday. Meanwhile, a complex area of low pressure
will slowly approach from the west. An increasingly moist
southerly flow between these two systems can be expected
Thursday and Thursday night. Thursday will start off dry, but
showers are expected later in the day as a warm front lifts 
north across the region. The front will be north of the region 
Thursday night. Thursday night will be a mainly cloudy night 
with a few showers, along with patchy fog and drizzle,
especially across downeast areas. Friday will be a mainly 
cloudy and unseasonably mild day. With the moist air mass in 
place, a few showers will be possible, especially across the 
north. Highs away from the coast will climb into the mid 50s to 
near 60 degrees.


The weather pattern stays unsettled right through the weekend as
the closed upper low remains to our west, and high pressure 
remains to our east Friday night through Saturday. A moist 
southerly flow between these systems keeps the threat of showers
going right through Saturday. The upper low will transition to 
an open wave Saturday night and then move northeast across the 
region on Sunday. This will keep a continued threat for showers 
across the region. A drier weather pattern returns for early 
next week.


NEAR TERM: VFR expected today and tonight at the northern and 
eastern Maine terminals. 

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions early Thursday will be followed by 
occasional MVFR/IFR Thursday night through Sunday in showers,
patchy fog and drizzle at times.


NEAR TERM: Have cancelled the SCA with this update. The wind and
seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through tonight. 

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels on Thursday.
Winds/seas will then increase to SCA levels Thursday night, and
possibly gales on Friday. Visibility will be reduced in 
showers, drizzle, and patchy fog Thursday night through Friday 


The main focus the next 24 hours will be on the far northern 
Maine Rivers along parts of the Aroostook and Saint John Rivers.
The water levels continue to rise at the Washburn gage which is
now at moderate flood stage. Flooding will likely continue on 
Gardner Creek Road, and the water may threaten some structures. 
Slow rises are expected to continue until the ice gets flushed 
out. Water levels have dropped several feet at Fort Kent this
morning and it is possible that the old ice jam from December 
just downriver of the gage has been flushed. Will keep the 
flood watch going today across northern Aroostook County as new 
jams and pre-existing jams may result in rapid fluctuations and
possible flooding.

The Mattawamkeag River at Mattawamkeag continues to slowly rise and 
is approaching minor flood stage early this morning. The river will 
slowly rise over the next 24 hours and there could be some flooding 
by later today or tonight along the Bancroft Road between 
Wytopitlock and Danforth. 

No new information from calls to law enforcement early this 
morning on the flooding at Island Falls, and until there is 
updated information that Route 2 has been re-opened will 
maintain the flood advisory. 

Unseasonably warm and humid conditions will continue late week 
and into the weekend. Showers and possibly a heavier band of 
rain Sunday will continue to pose a flooding risk. Greatest 
concerns at this time are for the Aroostook, Big Black, 
Allagash, St. John and Fish Rivers over the north where lots of 
snow remains over the highlands.


ME...Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MEZ001-002.



Near Term...CB
Short Term...Duda
Long Term...Duda