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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCAR 170631
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
131 AM EST Sun Feb 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region tonight through
Wednesday night. Low pressure will approach the region on
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
125 AM Update...
Last bit of light snow now in New Brunswick. Sfc analysis 
showed sfc trof hanging back over northern Aroostook County. 
Weak convergence on the boundary w/25 kts at 850mbs allowing for
potential for some flurries or a brief snow shower, but nothing
substantial. IR satl imagery showed clouds associated w/the 
trof moving across northern areas. Further s, some high level 
clouds in association w/a weak upper disturbance moving across 
southern New England. Most of these upper clouds were thin. 
Temps were dropping back across the CWA and northern/western 
areas down into the single numbers. Adjustments were made to 
bring temps to the latest conditions. Some the high res model 
guidance showing some of the northern and western sites dropping
below 0F by daybreak. Confidence is not high enough to make 
drastic changes to the overnight mins based on clouds streaming 
in from the open St. Lawrence. NW winds still averaging 10+ mph 
keeping the blyr mixed and this looks to hold through the early 
morning hrs.

Previous discussion:
Low pressure located to the north of the State will continue to
move away to the northeast tonight. Snow showers across the 
north are expected through early evening then gradual clearing 
is expected. Central and southern areas are expected to remain 
mostly clear. Strong high pressure is expected to build in from 
the northwest on Sunday with mostly sunny skies expected. Also a
colder air mass is expected to move in ahead of the high on 
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure looks to dominate the short term with mostly dry 
wx expected. Winds look to decouple Mon morning and under 
moclear skies acrs the north and significant snowpack min temps 
wl lkly be blo guidance. Hv contd with the idea of minus teens 
acrs portions of northern Aroostook and blo zero temps to the 
north of Katahdin.

Lopres system progged to move off the mid-Atlantic coast Mon morning 
may bring a glancing blow to the coast Mon morning with light snow 
showers. 12z med range guidance do not differ much fm their sfc low 
locations to the south of Cape Cod by 12z Mon, however they do 
differ on extent of pcpn shield extending to the north. This lkly 
centers on the strength of the high building ovr the area with CMC 
strongest with hipres and NAM weakest. GFS looks to be the 
compromise and given the discrepancies in the solns hv contd with 
slgt chc pops along the coast for Mon mrng. 

As low shifts south of Nova Scotia Mon night nrly flow conts to 
bring in colder H8 temps. Mins on Tue mrng may be a touch cooler 
than Mon morning if not for the winds staying up as pressure 
gradient tightens with high building in fm the west and low exiting 
to the east. High temps on Tue wl lkly be colder than Mon under 
contd cold advection. Sunny skies and a stronger sun angle may 
provide warmer temps than currently fcst for highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Sfc high conts to build in fm the west cresting ovr the area Wed 
evng. High quickly builds east Wed night with sfc low mvg into the 
Great Lakes drg the ovrngt hrs and another low ejecting off of the 
mid-Atlantic coast Thu morning. Sfc low mvg thru the Great Lks wl 
quickly fill as it heads into New England while low mvg into the 
Atlantic intensifies drg the day on Thu. This wl lkly set up another 
Norlun trough affecting coastal zones where inverted trof sets up. 
At the same time an upr lvl trof mvs acrs nrn portion of CWA leading 
to light snow at all locations drg the day. Expect temps thru the 
longer term wl moderate to abv normal by the end of the week as upr 
flow bcms zonal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Patchy MVFR at times late this evening at the 
Aroostook County terminals in patches of lower clouds and 
isolated snow showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected 
tonight and Sunday.

SHORT TERM: VFR Sun afternoon through Mon morning. Occasional
MVFR cigs may occur on Mon morning over Downeast terminals with  
moisture from low pressure tracking well to the south. May see
MVFR cigs north of HUL in the afternoon in low stratus. VFR
expected Mon night through Wed before restrictions lower again
Thu morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Will use the Nam to initialize winds. For Waves: The
primary wave system is currently long period residual
southeasterly swell (currently 7 feet/9 seconds) from yesterdays
fetch across the Gulf of Maine. This system will continue to
subside tonight and is expected to all below 5 feet later this
evening. This is also a secondary off-shore wind wave which will
remain through tonight. Total Water Level: Will keep the Base
Tide Anomaly along the coast near +0.10 since the surge guidance
continues to perform well. Expect a reverse surge with off-shore
wind this evening then zero surge through Monday. In Bangor have
initialized the Base Tide Anomaly based on RFC guidance then
will adjust for surge/reverse surge.

SHORT TERM: SCA level winds may be reached Mon night thru Wed
morning, with a possible 6-hr window Tue morning where they drop
blo 25ks.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for 
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hewitt