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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCAR 191213
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
813 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the region through the 
weekend. A cold front will cross the region Monday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...
Have updated for the expiration of the Freeze Warning/Frost 
Advisory and to adjust for current conditions.

Previous Discussion...
Patchy fog will occur this morning. High pressure will remain 
across the region today through tonight with generally mostly 
clear skies. However, clouds could begin to increase late 
tonight in advance of an approaching weak cold front. High 
temperatures today will range from the mid 60s to around 70 
across the forecast area. Low temperatures tonight will range 
from around 40 to the mid 40s.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be drifting to the south with westerly flow 
rounding the top of the strong surface high. This will produce 
a warm day, with some daytime highs some ten degrees above 
normal. Towards the evening, a weak cold front appears to wash 
out just northwest of the FA with very little moisture. This may
enhance some cooling after sunset in the north. Some patchy fog
is possible Friday night, but surface winds will not be too 
favorable. Would expect this to be mostly limited to valley 
locations given the mentioned winds and lack of moisture. By 
Saturday, another surface high has taken up residence as a
mid-level ridge crests between the Great Lakes and Northeast. 
Flow will keep northern areas a few degrees cooler than
Friday, but Downeast will still have another warm day. Biggest 
change will be less moisture in the region. 

As sfc high drifts over Maine and the ridge crests, winds will 
calm overnight and skies will remain clear. Flow will shift to 
SW aloft with some warm air advection. This will set up a more 
favorable night for patchy fog in the north as well as valleys 
down south.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry weather for one more unseasonably warm day Sunday, before 
approaching front will bring rain chances at the beginning of 
the week. Highs Sunday will approach 80 in the Bangor Region, 
with mid-70s appearing reachable in the north given SW winds 
and clear skies through early afternoon. One caveat will be the 
approaching front as higher clouds move in shortly after 
noontime. Timing of this will decide high temps for the northern
areas. 

PoPs begin to increase across the north Sunday night, although
timing differences in guidance keeps duration fairly low 
confidence. Showers should be underway by Monday afternoon with 
GFS and Canadian ending precip by Monday night. ECMWF keeps an 
area of low pressure in the region with rain persisting through 
Wednesday. This solution has been quite different in evolution 
and timing than other guidance for a few runs, but appears to be
speeding up via the 00z run. Decided in collaboration with 
neighboring offices to keep low PoPs in forecast, as either 
solution could develop some afternoon showers as cooler air 
filters in behind front through Tuesday night. With passage of 
front, temperatures will become more seasonable with much of the
area seeing highs in the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Variable conditions will occur with any fog this 
morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected today through 
tonight. 

SHORT TERM: 
Friday through Sunday...VFR conditions expected. Light winds 
through Saturday night, increasing from the southwest on Sunday.
Some patchy fog is possible in valley locations late Friday and
Saturday night which may locally impact terminal visibility.

Sunday night and Monday...MVFR to IFR conditions in lower 
clouds and showers. Southwest winds increasing near 10 kts at 
northern and inland sites, close to 15 kts at BHB.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory 
levels today through tonight.

SHORT TERM: SCA for hazardous seas Friday morning into early 
Saturday morning as long period SE swell impacts marine zones 
from Hurricane Humberto in the open Atlantic. Seas 4 to 7 feet 
with a period of 10-14 seconds can be expected with winds up to 
20 kts. Winds and waves decrease Saturday through Sunday 
morning, 2-3 ft and 5-10 kts. 

Winds increase Sunday afternoon into the overnight ahead of 
approaching front from the west. An SCA may be needed later for 
wind gusts around 25kts and seas 5-6ft Sunday night through 
Monday.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Long period southeast swell from Hurricane Humberto in the open
Atlantic will produce high surf for coastal Hancock and 
Washington counties Friday into early Saturday. Wave heights 
will increase to 4 to 7 feet during the late morning hours 
Friday and continue into early Saturday. The combination of 
high surf and long swell will create dangerous rip currents. 
Astro tides are nearing low point of month, with no overwash 
expected. Conditions will begin to improve after midnight.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for 
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 10 AM Friday to 2 
     AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Norcross
Short Term...Cornwell
Long Term...Cornwell
Aviation...Norcross/Cornwell
Marine...Norcross/Cornwell
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Cornwell