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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCAR 220018
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
818 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will cross the region overnight. A cold front will
cross the area Thursday. The cold front will exit across the 
Gulf of Maine Thursday night into Friday. High pressure will 
build across the region Saturday through Monday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Update...
An upper level disturbance will cross the region early tonight,
with a warm front crossing overnight. Expect showers, with
isolated thunderstorms, across the region into the early 
morning hours. Showers/thunderstorms then diminish late. 
Precipitable water values increase tonight which will help 
support locally heavy rains across mostly central and Downeast 
portions of the forecast area early tonight. Low level moisture 
will support areas of fog overnight. Low temperatures will 
generally range from around 60 to the mid 60s across the region.
Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions, 
mostly to increase shower/thunderstorm chances across northern 
areas early. Have also updated for overnight temperatures, 
clouds and shower/thunderstorm chances. 

Previous Discussion...
Cold front will cross the area Thu aftn with small chc for 
showers and tstms as moisture wl be lacking compared with tda. 
Temps expected to climb abv normal ahead of fropa.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
At the start of the period, a cold front will be extended 
across Coastal Washington County on its way out of the area. An 
Occluded low will be over Quebec bringing wrap around 
precipitation into Northern Aroostook County. Higher pressure 
will begin to build into the mid portions of the state. Friday 
morning the cold front will push into the coastal waters. Higher
pressure will spread to the rest of the area. Friday afternoon 
a trough associated with the occluded low over Quebec will move 
into Northern Aroostook County, bringing showers to the area. 
The trough will clear the area early Saturday morning, higher 
pressure will build back across the area. High pressure will 
dominate through the end of the period. 

Loaded a blend of the GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM to smooth out the minor
differences in the models.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will dominate the weather through early Wednesday
morning. A cold front will move into Western Maine Wednesday 
and will slowly move across the state through the end of the 
period. A low pressure system moving north along the Atlantic 
seaboard will help slow the forward movement of the front. The 
extended models are not in agreement on position and movement of
this low, though they all agree that there will be a low in the
Atlantic Thursday and Friday. 

Loaded a blend of models to smooth out the minor differences.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Variable conditions will occur early tonight with
showers/thunderstorms. Locally heavy rains are possible early
tonight. IFR/LIFR conditions then develop overnight. Conditions
will improve to VFR levels later Thursday morning into the 
afternoon. A shower/thunderstorm is possible later Thursday 
morning into the afternoon.

SHORT TERM: 
Thursday evening...VFR conditions FVE, CAR, and PQI, MVFR HUL, 
Low MVFR BGR and BHB in showers. BCMG VFR all sites early FRI 
AM. 

FRI Afternoon...Low MVFR FVE in showers, spreading to CAR and 
PQI mid morning. Sites returning to VFR late FRI evening. 

Late FRI evening through Monday...VFR conditions all sites.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels overnight through Thursday. Visibilities will be reduced
in fog overnight into Thursday. Showers/thunderstorms are 
expected tonight. 

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory levels
through the period.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Norcross/Farrar
Short Term...Norton
Long Term...Norton
Aviation...Norcross/Norton
Marine...Norcross/Norton