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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCAR 192352
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
652 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will build across the region and crest 
over the area Wednesday then move east Wednesday night. Low 
pressure from the Great Lakes will approach late Wednesday night
then cross the area Thursday. High pressure will return once
again for Friday and Saturday before another area of low
pressure impacts the region by late Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
7 pm update... 
Quick update to ingest latest obs. High pressure building in fm
the west with pressure gradient rmng high until shallow 
inversion dvlps ovrngt and atmos decouples. Expect that winds wl
be gusty until midnight bfr winds begin to die off and go nr
calm ovr the deeper vlys. Wl continue Wind Chill Advisory
through 3am. 

Prev discussion blo...
Brisk NW winds this eve will make wind chills an issue for a 
wind chill adv again for NW and far NE ME from late eve into the
late ngt hrs, but with winds xpctd to diminish late tngt, wind 
speeds will drop off to arnd 5 mph after 2 am, so this adv is 
only slated to go til 3 am.

Clrg skies this eve, alg with a late ngt pd of lgt winds should 
promote shallow arctic invsn conditions ovr broad rvr vlys by 
daybreak, particularly across the NW. 

Otherwise, Wed will be much more tolerable than tdy, with light 
winds and sunny skies, with increasing high cldnss late in the 
day from the west in advc of the low pres system movg our way 
from the great lakes. After chilly erly morn lows, aftn hi temps
Wed should recover to about 5 deg F warmer than this aftn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wed ngt and Thu will be the beginning of a return to an active 
weather pattern after a brief break in the weather. Forecast 
confidence remains slightly above average at this point with an 
advisory level snow event for the entire region. Peak impacts 
from this quick hitting storm will be the Thursday morning 
commute with snow expected across the entire region. The 
potential still exists for a mix on and near the coast, but the 
majority of the QPF for this event will have occurred by the 
time the changeover occurs. Still some spread on the thermal 
profiles with the GFS quickly becoming a warm outlier at this 
time. It will all depend on how strong the secondary surface low
in the Gulf of Maine is in regards of locking in the cold air. 
Just tweaked snowfall amounts a bit but overall the entire 
forecast area snowfall amounts range from 3 to 5 inches. Snow 
showers will quickly end Thursday night across the north with 
cold NW flow becoming established. Friday will be a cold day as 
the surface ridge builds in from the west during the day. Will 
be mostly sunny with below normal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Friday night into Saturday will be cold as surface high crests 
over the region. Confidence is increasing that the pick of the 
day this weekend will be Saturday as the next weather maker is 
progged to approach the area on Sunday. Forecast confidence is 
above average that the next snowstorm will impact the region 
Sunday into Monday. The storm has strong ensemble support at 
this time with all major model camps in agreement that a dual 
barrel low will impact the area. Still large spread in exact 
track and secondary coastal low formation this far out, but 
mixed precipitation is definitely a possibility with the storm 
Downeast/Bangor and snow for interior and north. As of now this 
storm has the potential of being bigger then the Thursday event.
Weather looks quiet on Tuesday with another shot of cold air at
this point. Overall temperatures will trend near average for 
this period. Looking like a possible net snow gain of 12 to 18" 
across the north over the next week with less for the coast due 
to mix potentials.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours expected under high pressure.

SHORT TERM: IFR to LIFR conditions expected for all TAF
terminals on Thursday as snow overspreads the area. Confidence
is high that all terminals will see snow Thursday morning,
before snow tapers off by the end of the day. VFR conditions
will return Thursday night into Friday with high pressure in
control.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA, mainly wind conditions, are slated to cont into
Wed morn before winds and seas diminish Wed aftn. Frzg Spray 
accretion will again increase to mdt by late this eve and cont 
so into mid Wed morn where we will re-issue a frzg spray adv, 
then diminishing to lgt frzg spray late Wed morn and aftn, then 
ending by erly Wed eve. Kept close to WW3/NWPS blended guidance 
for fcst wv hts for this ptn of the fcst. 

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions expected Thursday
morning with southerly winds ahead of an approaching Gulf of
Maine surface low. Low will track over the waters by midday on
Thursday switching the winds to the NW. Waves will quickly 
build to 4-6 feet on Thursday before diminishing Thursday night.
Offshore flow and high pressure in control by Friday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Watching the Thursday morning 11:45 a.m. high tide due to a 
high astronomical tide of 13.3 feet MLLW at Bar Harbor. There 
will be a weak onshore flow at this time with half foot of storm
surge possible. Fortunately near shore waves aren't that big 
maybe 3 to 5 feet, so this will limit wave run-up threat. Some 
minor tidal flooding is still possible at the normal low lying 
areas of coastal Downeast. Will continue to watch this threat 
but right now looks like a coastal flood advisory for minor 
splash over and low-lying flooding could be possible.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Chill Advisory until 3 AM EST Wednesday for MEZ001>004-
     010.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for ANZ050>052.
     Freezing Spray Advisory until 9 AM EST Wednesday for 
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Farrar/VJN
Short Term...Dumont
Long Term...Norcross/Dumont
Aviation...Farrar/VJN/Dumont
Marine...Farrar/VJN/Dumont
Tides/Coastal Flooding...