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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

FXUS61 KCAR 200128

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
928 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

A cold front will cross the region tonight. High pressure will 
move across the region Tuesday. A cold front will approach later
Wednesday then cross the region Thursday. Another cold front
will cross the region late Friday. High pressure will build
toward the region later Saturday.


9:28 PM Update: The pre-frontal trough and its associated 
convection is now mostly east of the FA. There are still a few 
showers along the trough across the southeast corner of the FA 
mainly in Washington County. A cold front is now moving into 
northwest Maine and this front will sweep off the Down East 
coast a few hours before daybreak. There are some showers 
accompanying the front as seen on area radars. Some electrical 
activity noted in the clouds on the VII and GLM products, but no
recent lightning strikes. Fog will be possible in spots until 
the front pushes through, but as of 9 pm the only observation 
sites indicating fog are in Frenchville and Eastport. Made some 
adjustments to the weather elements for the remainder of the 

Previous discussion:
Tuesday looks much better with lower humidity, little cloud 
cover and highs in the lower 80s with a dry west wind.


High pressure will begin to exit across the Maritimes Tuesday
night with mostly clear skies across the region. Low pressure 
will intensify across Quebec province Wednesday through 
Wednesday night drawing a warm front across the region later 
Wednesday through Wednesday night. Clouds will increase across 
the region Wednesday, with a chance of mostly afternoon 
showers/thunderstorms. Forecast soundings indicate elevated 
instability with the warm front Wednesday night which will 
support showers/thunderstorms. The warm front should lift north 
of the region early Thursday. A pre-frontal trof, in advance of 
an approaching cold front, will support a chance of 
showers/thunderstorms Thursday. Temperatures will be at near 
normal, to slightly above normal, levels Wednesday/Thursday.


The cold front will cross the region Thursday night with a
chance of early showers/thunderstorms in advance of the front. 
An upper low tracks north of Maine Friday. A disturbance moving 
around the upper low will cross the region along with a  
secondary cold front/trof. Expect a chance of showers across 
mostly the north and mountains Friday. Otherwise, expect 
generally partly cloudy skies. Upper level troffing remains 
across the region Saturday, which could help support a slight 
chance of showers across mostly the north and mountains. High 
pressure then builds across the region later Saturday into 
Monday with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies. Temperatures will
be at slightly below normal levels Friday through Sunday, with 
near normal level temperatures Monday.


NEAR TERM: North of HUL, MVFR cigs will tend to become IFR this
evening. All t sites will improve to VFR by late evening and 
continue VFR through Tuesday.

South of GNR and MLT, to include BGR, VFR through Tue. Brief
MVFR possible in patchy fog until a cold front pushes through
overnight.  IFR is possible in the fog at times at BHB. 

Tuesday night...VFR.

Wednesday...Generally VFR. Occasional MVFR possible late with
a chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...Variable conditions
with showers/thunderstorms. Fog possible mostly along the 
Downeast coast. 

Friday through Saturday...Generally VFR. Occasional MVFR
possible across the north and mountains.


NEAR TERM: Fog continues through tonight and then moves
southward out of the waters by daybreak Tue morning.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels Tuesday night through Thursday. Showers/thunderstorms are
possible Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Visibilities
could be reduced in fog Wednesday night through Thursday.





Near Term...CB/MCW
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross