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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCAR 220523
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
123 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will cross the region overnight. A cold front will
cross the area Thursday. The cold front will exit across the 
Gulf of Maine Thursday night into Friday. High pressure will 
build across the region Saturday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
127 AM Update...
Radar showed area of showers w/isold tstms pulling to the e
across eastern Aroostook and Washington County. Some heavy rain
still occurring across eastern Washington County. The latest RAP
matching quite well although a bit further n w/the rainfall
than what radar and obs showed. Trimmed back the pops across the
n and w using the radar trends and blend of the RAP and HRRR. 
Kept the heavy rainfall wording in for this update through early
morning. Hrly temps were adjusted to fit the latest obs. Kept 
the mention of fog in the forecast as well.

Previous Discussion... 
Cold front will cross the area Thu aftn with small chc for 
showers and tstms as moisture wl be lacking compared with tda. 
Temps expected to climb abv normal ahead of fropa.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
At the start of the period, a cold front will be extended 
across Coastal Washington County on its way out of the area. An 
Occluded low will be over Quebec bringing wrap around 
precipitation into Northern Aroostook County. Higher pressure 
will begin to build into the mid portions of the state. Friday 
morning the cold front will push into the coastal waters. Higher
pressure will spread to the rest of the area. Friday afternoon 
a trough associated with the occluded low over Quebec will move 
into Northern Aroostook County, bringing showers to the area. 
The trough will clear the area early Saturday morning, higher 
pressure will build back across the area. High pressure will 
dominate through the end of the period. 

Loaded a blend of the GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM to smooth out the minor
differences in the models.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will dominate the weather through early Wednesday
morning. A cold front will move into Western Maine Wednesday 
and will slowly move across the state through the end of the 
period. A low pressure system moving north along the Atlantic 
seaboard will help slow the forward movement of the front. The 
extended models are not in agreement on position and movement of
this low, though they all agree that there will be a low in the
Atlantic Thursday and Friday. 

Loaded a blend of models to smooth out the minor differences.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Variable conditions will occur through the early
morning hours with showers/thunderstorms. Locally heavy rains 
are also possible through early morning across central/Downeast
portions of the forecast area. IFR/LIFR conditions then develop
overnight. Conditions will improve to VFR levels later Thursday
morning into the afternoon. A shower/thunderstorm is possible 
later Thursday morning into the afternoon.

SHORT TERM: 
Thursday evening...VFR conditions FVE, CAR, and PQI, MVFR HUL, 
Low MVFR BGR and BHB in showers. BCMG VFR all sites early FRI 
AM. 

FRI Afternoon...Low MVFR FVE in showers, spreading to CAR and 
PQI mid morning. Sites returning to VFR late FRI evening. 

Late FRI evening through Monday...VFR conditions all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels overnight through Thursday. Visibilities will be reduced
in fog overnight into Thursday. Showers/thunderstorms are 
expected overnight. 

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory levels
through the period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hewitt