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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCAR 221512
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1012 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build toward the region through tonight then
cross the region Saturday. Low pressure will cross the region 
later Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...
No big changes to previous forecast as elements remain on track
through this afternoon. The SCA was cancelled for the coastal
waters.

Previous Discussion... High pressure will build toward the 
region today through tonight. Across the north and mountains 
expect a mostly sunny morning, then partly cloudy this afternoon
with scattered flurries. Wind gusts up to around 25 mph could 
also cause patchy blowing snow across mostly northern areas. 
Mostly sunny skies are expected Downeast today. Skies will 
remain partly cloudy across the north and mountains tonight, 
with mostly clear skies Downeast. High temperatures today will 
range from the mid 20s north, to the mid 30s interior Downeast 
with mid to upper 30s along the Downeast coast. Low temperatures
tonight will generally range through the single digits above 
and below zero north, to 10 to 15 interior Downeast with mid 
teens along the Downeast coast. Locally colder readings are 
possible across the entire region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Strong high pressure is expected to be over the region Saturday
morning. This system will then move eastward into the Atlantic 
during the day Saturday as intense low pressure moves northeast 
into the Great Lakes. Clouds will increase during the day 
Saturday and snow is expected to develop across the region 
Saturday night as warm air advection ahead of the Great Lakes 
low develops. A secondary low is expected to develop south of 
New England early Sunday as the primary low continues to move 
northeast into Canada. The secondary low will move northeastward
along the Maine Coast late Sunday and Sunday evening. This will
result in continued snow in the north and snow changing to 
sleet and rain in the coastal areas and south central portions 
of the region. Will use the surface temperatures for 
precipitation type and snow ratios for snow amounts. Snow is 
expected to transition to snow showers early Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Expect gusty winds, snow showers, and cold temperatures Monday
into early Tuesday as intense low pressure remains to the north
of the state. High pressure is expected to build in from the
west later Tuesday and crest over the region Wednesday morning.
Another low is expected to approach from the west Wednesday 
night.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Local MVFR conditions are possible across the north 
and mountains today. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected 
across the region today through tonight. Northwest winds will 
gust up to around 25 mph today.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Saturday. IFR/LIFR 
conditions are expected Sunday and Monday. MVFR conditions are 
expected Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: There may be a few gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon
otherwise winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through this
afternoon. Conditions could then approach small craft advisory 
levels again tonight. Light freezing spray is expected later 
tonight. 

SHORT TERM: Will use the Nam to initialize winds then transition
to the Super Blend winds early Monday. For Waves: The primary
wave system is expected to be long period southeasterly swell
(1-2 feet/8 seconds) Saturday into early Sunday. A significant
southeasterly fetch is expected to develop across the Gulf of
Maine on Sunday and continue into Sunday evening until broken 
up by a wind shift later Sunday evening. Off-shore wind wave is
then expected to become the primary wave system Sunday night 
into Monday with a secondary subsiding southeasterly swell. The 
off-shore wind wave is expected to persist into Tuesday. Total 
Water Level: A post surge is persisting along the Maine coast 
and is expected to subside during the next 48 hours. Will adjust
for this in the Base Tide Anomaly as surge guidance is not 
handling this. Another significant surge is expected on Sunday 
as southeasterly winds increase. Surge guidance looks reasonable
with a maximum surge of 1.50 feet late Sunday so will keep the 
Base Tide Anomaly close to zero. Maximum surge occurs closer to 
low tide so threat at this time appears minimal. In Bangor a 
large positive anomaly continues to persist at low tide due to 
ice. Will stay close to RFC guidance with some minor adjustments
a low tide.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda/Norcross
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Mignone
Aviation...Duda/Norcross/Mignone
Marine...Duda/Norcross/Mignone