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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCAR 241331
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
931 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region today through 
Tuesday. Low pressure will track south of the region 
Wednesday. A cold front will approach Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930am update: Stratocumulus kept minTs a few degrees warmer 
this AM. Adjusted temperatures upward over the next couple hours
to compensate. Winds and gusts were also adjusted up slightly 
in line with obs, but are expected to decrease this afternoon as
high pressure builds. A weak nocturnal inversion has led to 
earlier mixing and development of surface- based stratocumulus 
compared to yesterday.

Previous discussion...
A cold upper trough will cross the region this morning. The
trough will not generate any precipitation, but there will be
sufficient 925-850mb moisture for partly to mostly cloudy skies.
The axis of moisture will push southward during the day with
clearing skies entering northern zones this afternoon and
expanding southward later in the afternoon into the evening. It
will be breezy today with cool northerly winds. A decent
pressure gradient this morning will gradually slacken this
afternoon, but the mixing depth will increase and some 20 mph 
gusts will continue until later in the afternoon. The cold air
advection will limit today's highs to the upper 60s to lower
70s. The coast will enjoy the warmest temperatures with the
offshore flow. For tonight, the 1030mb high settles over the
forecast area and will provide ideal conditions for strong 
radiational cooling. Have introduced some patchy frost for 
colder spots in Aroostook County where lows will range from the 
mid 30s to lower 40s. Further south, lows will be in the 40s to
near 50F. The cold air over relatively warm bodies of water will
create some shallow fog near sunrise and have added some patchy
fog over the rivers and lakes late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will remain across the region Sunday
through Monday night. With limited diurnal cloud development, 
expect mostly clear skies across the region Sunday through 
Monday night. Could also have patchy valley fog Sunday night. 
Temperatures will be at near normal, to slightly below normal, 
levels Sunday/Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will begin to move east Tuesday, keeping mostly
clear skies across the region. A cold front will approach from
the west later Wednesday, with increasing clouds in advance of 
the front. Uncertainty still exists regarding the extent to 
which moisture is drawn across the region in advance of the 
front from an offshore low. Expect a chance of showers Wednesday
night in advance of the front. The front crosses the region 
Thursday with showers in advance of the front, the extent of 
showers will be dependent on the amount of moisture drawn 
northward along the front. An approaching cold front could keep 
a chance of showers across the region Friday, though the timing 
of the cold front remains uncertain. Near normal, to slightly 
above normal, level temperatures are expected Tuesday through 
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CIGs near or below MVFR are possible today in
stratocumulus, particularly north of HUL. North/NE wind gusts 
will decrease by later this afternoon. Expect clouds to
dissipate quickly around sunset. Towards sunrise Sunday, 
shallow patchy fog could affect sites such as PQI and BGR for a 
couple of hours.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday through Tuesday...Generally VFR. Patchy fog possible 
Sunday night.

Wednesday...Generally VFR. Occasional MVFR possible with 
showers Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Fog is not expected. Seas will remain 3 feet or less.
Winds will be light, but pick up tonight with some gusts to 20
kts. These winds will be east-northeast.  With the relatively 
cold air moving over the waters, low level mixing will occur and
confidence in the gustiness is high.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory 
levels Sunday through Monday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Strauser/MCW
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Strauser/MCW/Norcross
Marine...Strauser/MCW/Norcross