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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCAR 180210
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1010 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area tonight and Tuesday and 
slide east of the region Tuesday night. A cold front will reach
northern Maine later Wednesday and stall.  Low pressure will 
track towards the area along the stalled front Thursday into
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
935 PM Update: Only chgs were to lower wind speeds to near calm
ovr broad vly areas and to update fcst hrly temps/dwpts into 
the late ngt from trends seen from latest mid eve sfc obs. 
Latest temps/dwpts were not far from fcst hrly values thru this
tm indicated in the last fcst update. No further chgs were made
to fcst ovrngt lows from last update posted between 4-5am, with
current temps on track and well within limits of these fcst 
lows. 

Orgnl Disc: High pressure dominates through the period. Clear 
skies and light winds will produce good radiational cooling 
tonight with lows ranging from the low 40s to near 50F across 
the forecast area. Can't rule out a few upper 30s in the remote 
North Woods. H850 moisture remains in place Tuesday to produce 
another round of fair wx cumulus. Some low clouds could approach
the Hancock County coast by late day. Warm advection will 
ensure Tuesday's highs are a bit warmer than today...except the 
coast where the sea breeze returns Tuesday afternoon. Humidity 
will also be slightly higher.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will slide east of the region Tuesday night as an 
upper level trough of low pressure dropping down from eastern Canada 
begins to form a low over the upper Midwest. Moisture ahead of this 
low and behind the departing high will begin to increase across the 
area on Wednesday bringing increasing clouds. Some fog or stratus 
may form along the coast. A weak wave of low pressure kicking out of 
the Midwestern low and being lifted across the area by the Canadian 
trough may bring some showers across the area Wednesday night. A 
frontal boundary will be stalled across the northern part of the 
region. Low clouds, some fog and drizzle along with the showers will 
be possible south of the frontal boundary. The main low will 
approach on Thursday as the frontal boundary pushes south across our 
region. Northern areas may begin to clear late Thursday as the front 
pushes south. However, Downeast, some significant rain will be 
possible just south of the front and ahead of the low.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure tracking through the Gulf of Maine will likely bring 
steady rain Downeast Thursday night as high pressure building 
in from the west pushes clearing into the north. Rain will taper
off Downeast early Friday morning. Otherwise, high pressure 
building in will bring a sunny to partly cloudy day on Friday 
with a northwesterly breeze. The low intensifying to our east 
combined with high pressure building in from the west will 
maintain a strong gradient Friday night keeping up the 
northwesterly breeze. Saturday will likely be dry. However, some
wrap around moisture behind the departing low may result in 
clouds limiting sunshine in eastern areas. Surface high pressure
to our south combined with an upper ridge building in should 
then bring plenty of sunshine Sunday with a warm afternoon. The 
next chance for showers will come on Monday with an occlusion 
being drawn into the area south of low pressure lifting into 
northern Quebec.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: A sites will be VFR with good visibility and cigs
generally above 5000 ft. There is a chance IFR cigs could roll
into coastal Hancock County to include BHB late Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions Tuesday evening may lower to MVFR or
IFR Tuesday night as lower clouds push into the area. IFR to 
MVFR conditions are expected Wednesday followed by IFR or LIFR 
conditions in low clouds, rain and drizzle Wednesday night. IFR 
conditions are likely Thursday into early Friday Downeast. MVFR 
conditions across the north Thursday should improve to VFR 
Thursday night. Conditions will likely improve to VFR across the
entire area on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No significant weather is expected. Some patchy fog
could move over western portions of the waters late Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA through
mid-week. Some fog may limit visibilities Wednesday night into 
Thursday as moisture begins to lift north over the waters.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...VJN/Bloomer
Marine...VJN/Bloomer