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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

FXUS61 KCAR 221029

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
629 AM EDT Wed May 22 2019

High pressure builds today into Thursday. Low pressure will
track across the region Thursday night into early Friday. High
pressure returns later Friday until later Saturday.

630am update...Increased cloud cover for this morning based on
METSAT, sfc obs and latest guidance.

Previous discussion...
The northerly flow and tight pressure gradient in the wake of a
departing low in the Canadian Maritimes will diminish today. The
low will continue moving east as high pressure builds east over
the area. This morning, there is a lot of H925/H850 moisture
that will result in widespread cloud cover. This cloud cover
will slowly erode from the west as the day progresses and all
areas will become clear by early this evening. The surface ridge
will be accompanied by a high amplitude upper ridge that builds
over the area through tonight. The resulting warm advection and
subsidence will help propel today's highs some 5 to 10F warmer
than yesterday's chilly readings. Temperatures will drop off
this evening, but prospects for frost diminished as upper level
clouds increase after midnight when the upper ridge crests.

Increasing clouds Thursday ahead of the next system, with warmer
temperatures and highs mainly in the mid to upper 60s. Fairly
potent weather system for Thursday night with a surface and
upper low sliding southeast out of Quebec and through the state.
An area of moderate rain is expected along and north of the
surface low track. At this time, the heaviest rain axis is
mostly likely to run from Northern Somerset southeast to
Downeast Maine, where totals around three quarters of an inch
are expected. Models have been trending a bit south with the 
system's track. It is possible that extreme NE Maine could miss 
out on the rain, and have put the northern edge of the likely 
PoPs just north of Caribou. Confident enough to go with 100 PoPs
from Northern Somerset southeast to Downeast.

Rain tapers off to a chance of showers by midday Friday with
partial clearing late in the afternoon. Cool Friday with highs
in the 50s, and have gone closer with the cooler raw model 
guidance temps rather than MOS. High pressure building in Friday
night and cool with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Active weather pattern continuing for the holiday weekend into 
early next week.

Saturday looks mostly dry and mild with increasing clouds. Rain
may move in very late in the day, and more likely Saturday
night, when rain looks like a good bet as a warm front moves
through the area from west to east. Fairly juicy airmass in
place for Sunday behind the warm front with a chance of storms,
though dynamics don't look terribly impressive. Another chance
of storms on Monday with perhaps some better upper level 
dynamics and a decent cold front approaching. Timing still
fairly uncertain, though if the front coincides with the best
daytime heating Monday, could be an active storm day. Neither 
Sunday nor Monday look like washouts or all day rains by any 
means, but they will be days to keep an eye to the sky.

Model agreement falls apart Monday night into Tuesday with some
models having an upper low closing off over the region and
others having high pressure building in.

NEAR TERM: MVFR cigs north of HUL and GNR will give way to VFR
conditions this afternoon through tonight. IFR cigs at FVE will
lift to MVFR this morning.  

SHORT TERM: VFR Thursday, then MVFR and IFR likely Thursday
night into early Friday areawide with rain and low clouds.
VFR again late Friday into Saturday afternoon. MVFR/IFR possible
again Saturday night with more rain.

NEAR TERM: The Small Craft Advisory will remain in place early
this morning, but not seeing much reason to extend it. Winds and
seas will diminish through today and tonight as high pressure

SHORT TERM: Small craft conditions likely Thursday night into
Friday, then possibly again Saturday night.


Near Term...MCW
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy