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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

FXUS61 KCAR 211856

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
256 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

High pressure will be across the area tonight and slide south 
of the region on Sunday. A weak area of low pressure will 
approach Monday and cross northern Maine on Tuesday. High 
pressure will build over the area Wednesday. A cold front will 
approach on Thursday. 


High pressure cresting over the area combined with strong
subsidence from an upper ridge building into the region will
bring a clear and calm night tonight. River and low lying valley
fog will likely develop late tonight and continue into mid
morning Sunday. High pressure sliding south of the area combined
with an approaching occlusion will bring an increasing
southwesterly breeze on Sunday. Very warm air will lift north
into the area bringing mid-summer like temperatures. Other than
some morning fog, the day will begin sunny. Clouds will then
increase from northwest to southeast late Sunday afternoon as
the front approaches, and some showers may stray into 
northwestern areas late Sunday. Downeast will remain mostly
sunny Sunday afternoon closer to departing high pressure.


A strong ridge of high pressure east of the Mid-Atlantic region
and an approaching cold front from the north will keep a south 
to southwest flow across the region Sunday night. Lows will only
fall into the mid to upper 60s across the area, which is more 
indicative of what our daytime highs should be this time of 
year. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with just an outside 
chance of a shower across the St. John Valley ahead of the 
approaching front Sunday night.

Monday is shaping up as an unseasonably mild day for the first
day of autumn as the area remains in southwest flow ahead of 
the slow moving cold front approaching from the northwest. 
Expect partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Monday along with 
the chance of afternoon showers, especially from the Katahdin 
region northward. Highs are still expected to be above normal 
for this time of year with low to mid 70s north and upper 70s to
near 80 downeast.

Unsettled weather pattern continues Monday night and Tuesday as
front slows with ridge remaining across the western Atlantic and
an upper low slowly approaching from the west. This keeps the
chance of showers in the forecast through the period.
Temperatures will be closer to seasonal levels for this time of


The upper low will cross the region Tuesday night and Wednesday
with continued chance for showers and more seasonal temperatures.
Another frontal boundary crosses the region on Thursday with 
the chance for showers. Much cooler temperatures and generally 
dry conditions will follow for Friday and Saturday.


Tonight: VFR across the area except for locally MVFR to IFR in patchy
fog late tonight. Calm air. 

Sunday: Becoming VFR after any morning fog. Winds increasing 
from the southwest. Possibly a little SW wind shear early. 

SHORT TERM: MVFR conditions are possible in showers
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL late Sunday night through Monday, otherwise
VFR. All terminals can expect chance MVFR Monday night thru
Wednesday in any showers, otherwise VFR. 


NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will be below SCA tonight and Sunday.
Visibilities will be good except for any late tonight/early
morning patchy fog in the bays. 

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas could approach SCA levels Sunday night
through Mon night. Winds/seas will then remain below SCA levels
the rest of the period.





Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Duda
Long Term...Duda