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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

                            
525 
FXUS61 KCAR 221427
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
927 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region this afternoon and evening as
an area of low pressure passes to the east of the area tonight.
High pressure will cross the region Thursday. A cold front will
cross the area Friday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9:20 am update...Added a chance of freezing rain this morning as
precip arrives in places such as southern Piscataquis County
where colder temperatures occurred last night. However,
temperatures across the entire area will quickly rise above
freezing and 50s are already being measured on the coast. The
rain will be heavy at times this afternoon into the evening in 
the Down East region with around an inch of rain. Increased pops
this afternoon and evening towards 100 percent. In terms of
snow, have increased snow totals in NE Aroostook this evening
towards 1-2 inches along Rt 1 from Houlton to Van Buren. Amounts
will be less to the south and west. Temperatures will fall
tonight into the 20s...so moisture will freeze and impact
motorists.

Previous discussion...
An upper trough across the Great Lakes early this morning will push 
east into western New England late this afternoon, and will 
sweep off into the Canadian Maritimes tonight. Low pressure off 
the SC coast early this morning races northeast and deepens
today and will be near Halifax late this evening, and into the 
northern Gulf of Saint Lawrence by 12Z Thursday. A cold front 
will push into western Maine early this afternoon, and will 
sweep across the remainder of the CWA this evening. A moderately 
colder air mass will spread back into the region tonight. 

Rain associated with the the low to our south will overspread the 
Downeast Region by late morning to midday with the heaviest rain 
across Washington County where rainfall totals of around 1.5" 
are expected. A few showers of rain or snow are possible this 
morning in northwest Maine ahead of the cold front. Rain with
the southern low will work north across most of the CWA this 
afternoon. Much lighter QPF is expected across northern and 
western portions of the CWA on the order of around a quarter of 
an inch north of the Katahdin Region. Colder air sweeps in as 
the precipitation ends this evening, and will likely produce a 
short period of mixed rain and snow followed by a period of snow
for a couple of hours across northern areas. a quick in or so 
of snow many accumulate, and as temps fall it could turn icy 
later in the evening.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thxgvg day will be fair and seasonably cold with a brisk NW
wind. Late in the day, clds will increase from the W ahead of a
clipper s/wv movg ESE from Cntrl Can. Thu ngt into Fri morn will
then be msly cldy with lmtd chcs of sn shwrs across the NW as
the s/wv crosses the Rgn. Following the passage of this system,
slightly colder modified arctic air will move into the Rgn Fri
with below avg hi temps.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Another s/wv complex from Cntrl Can will bring increasing cldnss
to the Rgn Fri ngt with a chc of rn/sn shwrs on Sat as temps
moderate. Blended long range models show higher PoPs just to our
E later Sat into Sat ngt as a s/wv from the SE states swings NE
toward the Ern Maritimes. Will have to watch whether any s/wv 
energy from Cntrl Can merges with this system ovr the next day
or two, but for now the majority of the guidance including the
latest 00z ECMWF keeps these systems separate. Colder air with
the passage of the upper trof axis will mean more in the way of
sn shwrs for Sun with ptly to msly cldy skies and seasonably
cold conditions for erly next week with msly ocnl Nrn sn
shwrs/flurries.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Conditions will lower to IFR and LIFR today from 
south to north as rain overspreads the region. The rain may end
as a period of wet snow at the northern terminals this evening. 
Conditions will improve to VFR tonight at the Downeast 
terminals, and to MVFR at the northern terminals late in the 
evening and to VFR overnight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Mainly MVFR clgs with bkn-ovc SC for Nrn 
TAF sites and VFR conditions Downeast sites with brief MVFR 
vsbys in rn/sn shwrs mainly across the N Fri and again Sat and 
Sat ngt.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory remains in effect for the
coastal waters through tonight. There will be a bit of a lull in
the wind today and the seas will subside, but they are still 
running 7 to 8 feet at Jonesport and the Eastern Maine Shelf as 
of 5 am. The seas will likely subside to around 5 ft later this 
morning, but the wind will increase again tonight. On the intra-
coastal waters a small craft advisory was issued for tonight as 
the wind will increase as low pressure begins to pull away from 
the waters. 

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Winds and wvs will be at or below marginal 
SCA conditions across our waters. Kept close to a WW3/NWPS 
model blend for fcst wv hts throughout these ptns of the fcst.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST 
     Thursday for ANZ052.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ050-051.
&&
$$

Near Term...CB/MCW
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...CB/MCW/VJN
Marine...CB/MCW/VJN