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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

                            
000
FXUS61 KCAR 181649
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1249 PM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure to our northeast combined with high pressure to the 
west will bring strong gusty cold northwest winds today. A weak warm 
front will lift across the area late tonight into Friday morning. A 
cold front will follow late Saturday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12PM Update: No significant changes. Winds will decrease later
this afternoon with the loss of daytime heating and lighter
winds aloft. Snow flurry activity will also subside in the
coming hours. A combination of winds and warm frontal clouds 
should keep temperatures from plummeting too much tonight, but 
the entire area will have a hard freeze with lows in the 20s. 
The frost/freeze season is over and no warnings or advisories 
will be issued for tonight. The warm front tomorrow may be a bit
more active than advertised by NAM/GFS and have increased pops
in northern zones for some light snow showers Friday morning.

Orgnl Disc: Latest radar ref imagery shows isold to sct sn 
shwrs ovr NW ptns of the FA very erly this morn, and we xpct 
this to cont ovr msly Nrn areas as llvl moisture circulates arnd
the back side of a slowly exiting upper trof. Sn shwrs should 
ens this aftn as the upper trof moves into the Ern Can 
Maritimes, with partial clrg skies across the N and clrg skies 
across Cntrl and Downeast areas. Meanwhile, winds will increase 
aft sunrise as stronger winds alf result in wind gusts to or 
just abv 40 mph across the Rgn due to steep sfc-500M lapse rates
and a mdtly strong sfc pres grad. Will cont the SCA, but wind 
gust potential looks to be a little less than the wind event a 
couple of days ago.

Winds will steadily decrease ovrngt from sunset to the late ngt
hrs as mclr skies this eve give way to some AC cld cvr from QB
by daybreak as a weak warm front begins to apch. The combo of
brisk eve winds and increasing late ngt cld cvr does not give
much of a window for radiational cooling ovrngt, so we did not
for very low morn lows for erly Fri morn, but never the less,
these lows will be about 5 to 10 deg below avg.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Friday morning will begin very cold with high pressure located to 
our southwest and a weak warm front lifting north across the area. 
The front will bring warm advection clouds across the region during 
the morning. Mid and high clouds will likely linger through much of 
the day over the north while Downeast becomes mostly sunny. Low 
pressure will track to our northwest Friday night bringing a breezy 
night with a southwesterly wind ahead of the next cold front. Some 
showers are possible as the low tracks well to our north. The best 
chance for showers will be over northern areas. Saturday will be 
mostly cloudy, breezy and milder as the cold front pushes into the 
area. A few showers will be around but any rainfall will be light. 
Much colder air will surge back into the area Saturday night into 
Sunday.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday will be cloudy to partly sunny, blustery and cold as another 
high dropping to our southwest pushes a fresh surge of cold air into 
the region. High pressure will slide to our south Sunday night. Low 
pressure forming along a triple point in southwestern Quebec will 
approach Monday into Monday night bringing increasing clouds. As 
precipitation spreads into the area Tuesday, temperatures may be 
cold enough for a period of snow over the north. Rain showers will 
be possible Downeast. The amounts of snow, if any, may depend on how 
far south the triple point low develops and tracks allowing cold air 
to hold over the north. If the low forms quickly and tracks over 
central or southern parts of our area, there may be some 
accumulating snow across the far north on Tuesday.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR with SC/AC cld cvr, with a brief pd of 
MVFR clgs and/or vsbys ovr far Nrn TAF sites this morn with 
flurries or isold sn shwrs. 

SHORT TERM: Mainly VFR conditions are expected Friday into 
Friday night. Conditions may lower to MVFR across the north late
Friday night into Saturday in lower clouds as low pressure 
lifts northwest of the area. VFR conditions are expected 
Saturday night through Monday evening. Conditions will likely 
lower to MVFR and IFR monday night in lower clouds and some 
light rain Downeast and snow north.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gale conditions will continue for our MZs thru this
eve due to cold advcn NW wind gusts to 40 kt, with an interim
SCA likely needed for the remainder of the ngt. Kept close with
a WW3/NWPS guidance blend for fcst wv hts with primary short 
fetch wv pds msly between 4 and 7 sec.

SHORT TERM: After a brief break Fri, an SCA may be needed 
Friday night through Saturday for southwest winds gusting up to 
30 kt. Another SCA may be needed again Sunday into Sunday night 
for winds gusting up to 25 kt as another fast moving system 
tracks across the north.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MEZ001>006-010-
     011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...VJN/Bloomer
Marine...VJN/Bloomer