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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

FXUS61 KCAR 220229

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
929 PM EST Mon Jan 21 2019

Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes tonight. High 
pressure will cross the region Tuesday. Low pressure will cross 
the region Wednesday into Thursday.


9:27 pm update: Windy and cold pretty much sums it up this 
evening. Temperatures are in the single digits above and below 
zero, but with the wind the wind chills are mostly in the 10 to 
25 below range. Little change overnight with lots of clouds and 
a few flurries or light snow showers. Areas of blowing and 
drifting snow, especially across the Crown, with the worst 
conditions in open areas that are susceptible to a northwest 
wind. Some clearing will begin to work in from the west toward 
morning. Made some minor tweaks based on the latest 
observations, satellite pictures, and area radars. 

Previous discussion:
Intense low pressure will remain across the Gulf of Saint 
Lawrence, with high pressure across the eastern Great Lakes,
tonight. The tight pressure gradient will produce north to 
northwest winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph. The winds will produce
significant blowing snow across northern portions of the region
where heavy snow fell yesterday. A Winter Weather Advisory for
Blowing Snow remains in effect across northern and central 
portions of the forecast area tonight into Tuesday morning. The
winds and cold temperatures will also produce dangerous wind 
chills overnight. Wind Chill Advisories have been issued across
the entire forecast area tonight into Tuesday morning, with 
readings ranging from around 20 below to around 30 below zero 
north, to around 20 below zero Downeast. Otherwise, mostly 
cloudy skies along with scattered/isolated snow showers are 
expected across the region early tonight, with decreasing clouds
overnight. High pressure will build toward the region Tuesday 
with mostly sunny skies along with decreasing winds during the 
afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from 
around 5 below to around 10 below zero north, with around zero 
to 5 below zero interior Downeast with around zero to 5 above 
along the Downeast coast. High temperatures Tuesday will range 
from around 10 north, to the mid to upper teens interior 
Downeast with upper teens to around 20 along the Downeast coast.


High pressure will crest over the region Tuesday evening then 
move east into the Atlantic. Low pressure is expected to pass to
the northwest of New England Wednesday afternoon and evening. 
This will result in over-running snow developing across the 
region on Wednesday. The snow is expected to change to rain 
along the coast and across interior Downeast Wednesday night. 
On Thursday the low pressure center is expected to jump to the 
Maine Coast then move northeastward into New Brunswick later in 
the day. This will result in precipitation continuing through 
the day Thursday. The precipitation will stay all snow across 
the far north but is expected to change to rain across central 
areas and the south.


Weak low pressure is expected to move across the region on
Friday. High pressure will then build in from the west Saturday.
A cold front is then expected to approach from the west Sunday
and move across the state Sunday evening. High pressure will 
then build in from the northwest on Monday.


NEAR TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions across the region 
tonight, although there will be some local MVFR in -sn. 
VFR conditions are expected Tuesday. However, blowing snow will
produce variable conditions across northern areas tonight into 
Tuesday morning. North to northwest winds will gust up to 25 to 
30 mph tonight into Tuesday morning. 

SHORT TERM: Expect MVFR/IFR conditions on Wednesday and
Thursday. VFR conditions are expected Friday and Saturday.


NEAR TERM: A Gale Warning remains in effect into Tuesday 
afternoon. A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning remains in effect 
this evening into Tuesday morning, with moderate freezing spray
expected later Tuesday. Visibilities could be reduced in any 
scattered snow showers early tonight.

SHORT TERM: Will use the Nam to initialize winds. A southerly
fetch is expected to develop across the Gulf of Maine on
Wednesday with wave heights building to 9-10 feet/10 seconds
Wednesday evening. Wave heights are expected to continue to 
build into early Thursday. Total Water Level: Surge guidance 
develops a reverse surge through Tuesday with off-shore winds. 
Guidance levels look a little low so will off-set this with 
+0.50 Base Tide Anomaly through Tuesday then gradually lower 
this over next few days.


ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ001>006-
     Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ001>006-010-
     Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ015>017-029-
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 9 AM EST Tuesday for 
     Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ050>052.



Near Term...CB/Norcross
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Mignone