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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

FXUS61 KCAR 280747

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
347 AM EDT Mon May 28 2018

High pressure over the maritimes will move away to the east
today as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front 
will cross the area tonight. High pressure will build over the 
region on Tuesday and remain across the area through midweek.


Today will feature a good deal of clouds as moisture increases
between high pressure east of the Canadian Maritimes and an
approaching cold front from the west. The early morning radar 
mosaic shows a few showers moving east out of Quebec province in
association with a weak short wave trof. Latest runs of the 
HRRR and RAP show this activity moving into the St. John Valley 
and far northern areas later this morning into this afternoon, 
thus have decided to carry low likely pops (60%) for those 
areas. Southerly flow ahead of the approaching front will likely
result in developing low clouds and patchy fog toward the coast
by late this afternoon. Highs this afternoon will be warmest 
across the north and cooler toward the coast with clouds and on
shore southerly flow. The cold front will begin to cross the 
region after midnight tonight. There could be a few showers with
the passage of the front, especially across the north, but we 
are not looking at much in the way of rainfall. Rainfall amounts
tonight will generally be a few hundreths of an inch or so. 
Partial clearing can be expected by morning as drier air advects
in behind the front. Low temperatures tonight will remain on 
the mild side with most areas staying in the low to mid 50s.


Shwrs should be well to the E of our FA by Tue morn as a 
secondary cold front clears the area, with some lingering cldnss
spcly across Nrn and ern ptns of the FA. Skies should become
msly sunny by Tue aftn as sfc hi pres from Cntrl Can begins
to ridge ovr the FA. Winds will be quite brisk from the NW
with gusts upwards to 30 mph ovr Nrn areas durg the late morn 
and aftn hrs accompanying near avg hi temps.

Winds will diminish Tue eve and become lgt and vrbl by late Tue
ngt as the sfc hi crosses the Rgn. With dry air and clr skies
ovr the Rgn, good radiational cooling conditions are anticipated
particularly for NW vlys where patchy erly morn frost cannot be
ruled out Wed. Llvl warm advcn will then begin on Wed with temps
recovering at least 35 to 40 deg to high temps well into the
70s as sfc hi pres settles ovr the Srn Gulf of ME. 

Clr skies and much milder ovrngt lows will then be xpctd Wed 
ngt under a return light SW breeze. Msly skies and very warm hi
temps are then xpctd on Thu, the last day of May, with hi temps
well into the 80s inland from the Downeast coast as the upper 
ridge axis crosses the FA and sfc winds remain from the WSW. Hi
temps will likely be warmest ovr Nrn vly lctns where a few lctns
could reach close to 90 deg F while an aftn sea breeze will 
keep hi temps alg the immediate coast from exceeding the lower 
to mid 70s.

Cont'd dry conditions is xpctd Thu ngt with some increasing
cldnss late as a the sfc hi drifts ESE of Nova Scotia and a cold
front begins to apch from Cntrl Can.


Fri looks to cloudier and more humid with a more moist SW flow
ahead of an apchg cold frontal system from Cntrl Can. Isold to
sct tstms are possible across the N by mid to late aftn, with
the greatest cvrg near the QB border. Sct shwrs and eve tstms 
will then spread ovr the rest of the FA Fri ngt, with patchy 
late ngt fog possible. The potential of at least sct shwrs and 
aftn/eve tstms will cont into Sat/Sat eve as the cold front
slowly crosses the Rgn. Attm, it's to erly to know whether any
remnant moisture from the remains of Alberto will interact with
the front as it crosses our area, so max PoPs have been kept in
the hi chc range for this update. Clrg skies from N to S and 
more seasonable temps are currently be shown for late Sat ngt
into Sun as Can sfc hi pres ridges swrd into the Rgn. We have
held on to slight chc PoPs for spcly Ern ptns of the FA to
reflect uncertainty with the development and track of low pres 
E of New Eng and S of Nova Scotia, but most 00z longer range 
models show dry conditions for the late weekend, at least attm.


NEAR TERM: VFR conditions can be expected across northern areas
much of today. That won't be the case downeast, as low stratus 
and patchy fog develops toward KBGR and KBHB later this 
afternoon and this evening with MVFR and IFR expected. Some low
clouds could make it toward teh northern terminals this evening
with MVFR ceilings possible this evening.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR conditions xpctd across our TAF sites 
with brief MVFR clgs/vsbys possible Fri aftn with any tstm or
heavier shwrs.


NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through
tonight. Areas of fog may reduce visibility to 1 to 3 nm at 
times later this afternoon and this evening.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: No hdlns anticipated for these ptns of the 
fcst attm. Went with about 85 percent of WW3 wv guidance.
Primary wv pds will begin at 8 to 10 sec for Tue thru Thu then
diminish to 4 to 7 sec for Thu ngt thru Sat as winds become 
more onshore. Marine fog is possible Fri ngt into Sat ngt as
warm humid air flows N ovr the Gulf of ME cold water temps.





Near Term...TD
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN