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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Caribou, ME (CAR)

FXUS61 KCAR 231354

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
954 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

A second low pressure system will move along a front over the 
Gulf of Maine today. High pressure will build across the region 
tonight into Thursday. The high will gradually move offshore 
Friday into Saturday.


945 am update...
Sfc low located along the srn coast of Mass as of 13z per latest
sfc analysis. Stationary bndry extends fm low pressure to just
off of the srn Nova Scotia coast and expect low wl ride along
bndry this mrng. Expect the heaviest rain wl rmn over the waters
with light showers expected along the immediate coast this mrng
into early aftn. Rain is currently falling out of a mid-deck but
expecting low clds to mv in shortly along the Downeast coast and
hv adjusted pops to categorical accordingly. 

Expect that measurable pcpn wl make it as far north as Bangor
tda as airmass rmns dry to acrs the north, evidenced by
comparing 12z raob fm CAR to GYX. Quick update to hrly temps and
dwpts and pops expected drg the day. No other chgs needed attm. 

Prev discussion blo...
The warmest temperatures this afternoon will be found across 
far northern Maine, with readings climbing into the mid to upper
70s. Temperatures downeast will be cooler, with upper 60s to 
lower 70s, thanks to thicker cloud cover and occasional rain. 
Fair weather conditions are expected tonight, in the wake of the
departing frontal wave, as higher pressure builds east. Lows 
tonight will generally range from the upper 40s to lower 50s 
north and mid to upper 50s central and downeast.


Mainly fair and relatively cool conditions can be xpctd for the
short term with higher resolution models indicating a chc of 
shwrs ovr E Cntrl and interior Downeast ptns of the FA mid to 
late Wed aftn in the vcnty of a sfc trof ovr this area as an 
upper trof slowly crosses the rgn from QB prov. Otherwise, ptly 
cldy skies by day will give way to mclr skies at ngt for both 
Wed and Thu as CU clds dissipate with the loss of day tm htg 
with isold shwrs possible across the N and W Thu aftn with the 
exit of the upper trof into NB prov.


A building upper ridge ovr New Eng will result in a warming
trend for the Rgn inland from the immediate coast beginning Fri
and contg thru the weekend into erly next week with sig abv
normal mid summer-like temps by then. Blended long range model 
guidance indicates the possibility of a first weak s/wv from 
Cntrl Can later Sun aftn and eve, possibly resulting in sct 
aftn/erly eve tstms mainly across the N followed by 2nd s/wv 
from the great lks for later Mon into Mon ngt with perhaps more 
cvrg of at least sct tstms across the FA later Mon aftn into Mon
ngt. It's interesting to note that tngts 23/00z dtmnstc ECMWF 
is faster to bring a cold front into our FA Mon ngt then the 
23/00z dtmnstc GFS, which actually holds off on bring the cold 
front thru until later Tue and Tue ngt.


NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected north of KBGR with light
and variable winds. Expect VFR in light rain KBGR/KBHB early 
this morning with local MVFR at times, especially KBHB vicinity.
Expect primarily VFR this afternoon and tonight, along with 
light winds. 

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Wed-Sat...VFR, often unlmtd, conditions 
xpctd for all TAF sites with lgt winds.


NEAR TERM: Wind/seas are expected to remain below SCA levels 
through tonight. Visibility will be reduced at times to 1 to 3 
NM in occasional rain today. 

SHORT TO LONG TERM: No hdlns xpctd with marine fog becoming more
likely by Sat ngt onward as warmer, more moist trop air begins 
to move N ovr the waters. Went with about 80 percent of blended
WW3/NWPS guidance for fcst wv hts thru these ptns of the fcst. 
The most energetic spectral wv group pd will be arnd 8 sec with 
2nd shorter wv pd group of arnd 3 sec associated with near shore
aftn/eve sea breezes.





Near Term...Duda/Farrar
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN