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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Columbia, SC (CAE)

FXUS62 KCAE 201744

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
144 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate through the
weekend into early next week. A weak cold front with little 
moisture will move through the area Monday night.


High pressure both aloft and at the surface will result in dry
conditions through tonight due to large scale subsidence. 
Satellite imagery this afternoon showing some cumulus 
development in the southeastern Midlands, where moisture is just
a bit deeper than in other parts of the forecast area. Shower 
activity should remain along the coast. Calm winds coupled with 
mostly clear skies overnight should lead to excellent 
radiational cooling conditions. Lowered overnight low 
temperatures a couple of degrees resulting in expected lows in 
the middle to upper 50s. 


Ridging will remain across the region, both at the surface and 
aloft, through the early part of next week. A weak cold front 
will then approach the area by Monday night. Moisture will be 
limited this weekend, and the forecast is expected to remain 
dry, with pops near zero. Ahead of the front on Monday and 
Monday night, limited moisture once again, with any light rain 
they may develop along the central Appalachians diminishing as 
the airmass pushes east of the mountains. Kept the forecast with
the front dry.

Temperatures begin climbing back up above normal, with highs 
during the weekend in the mid to upper 80s, then by Monday 
temperatures will reach back into the lower 90s once again. Lows
expected in the lower to middle 60s.


As the front becomes diffuse and dissipates, ridging builds 
back into the area for the remainder of the week. Rainfall 
chances remain low, and dry forecast will continue for now. 
Temperatures will begin to climb well above normal, with the 
potential for near record afternoon high temperatures by the end
of the period.


High confidence in VFR conditions through the 24-hr period.
Exception may be possible brief patchy fog at AGS/OGB early 

High pressure coupled with a dry airmass will continue to result
in VFR conditions at the terminals through Saturday. Cannot 
rule out a brief visibility restriction at fog prone, AGS and 
OGB, but the chance was too low to include mention. LAMP 
Guidance does indicate brief restrictions at AGS and OGB, but 
moisture may be too shallow for any fog to materialize. Light 
easterly winds will become calm overnight. 

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Brief periods of shallow fog 
possible at fog prone AGS and OGB through the extended period.