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Prognostic Meteorological Discussion (PMD)

Issued by National Weather Service (NWS)

                            
000
FXCA20 KWBC 131924
PMDCA 

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
223 PM EST TUE NOV 13 2018

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM NOV 13/12 UTC: WEST OVER THE DOMAIN...A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL USA TO THE NORTHERN STATES OF MEXICO. STRONG JET
MAXIMA BOUNDS THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THIS TROUGH...WITH ITS
DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION VENTING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO. THIS IS A SLOW TO EVOLVE SYSTEM...WITH
TROUGH TO SLOWLY LIFT OVER A BROAD CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. AT LOW LEVELS...THE TROUGH ALOFT SUSTAINS A SURFACE
FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LATER TODAY IT IS TO EXTEND
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...THE GULF TO CHIAPAS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 35-40KT ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT
STREAMS ACROSS THE GULF...TO RESULT IN A TEHUANTEPECER JET OF
45-55KT. THIS WILL FAVOR A COLD ADVECTIVE PATTERN THAT WILL FAVOR
GENERATION OF CUMULIFORM CLOUD COVER OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THE FRONT MEANDERS EAST OVER
YUCATAN-SOUTHERN MEXICO...WHILE THE STRONG NORTHERLIES PERSIST.
LATER ON WEDNESDAY IT IS TO EXTEND ACROSS GEORGIA-QUINTANA ROO
MEXICO TO GUATEMALA/BELIZE. ON THURSDAY THE FRONT SURGES ACROSS
FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA WHILE TRAILING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN TO BELIZE-SOUTHERN MEXICO. ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-30KT ON
THURSDAY-FRIDAY. FURTHERMORE...AS THE FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO IT IS TO THEN SUSTAIN A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE. ON
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY THIS IS TO EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO
EASTERN NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA. THIS IS TO ALSO FAVOR AN INDUCED
PREFRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN-JAMAICA TO EASTERN
CUBA.

ACROSS SOUTHERN VERACRUZ-NORTHERN CHIAPAS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO THE
STRONG FRONTAL NORTHERLIES WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
IN THIS AREA INITIALLY EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 35-70MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 150-200MM. ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY EXPECTING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM.
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN GUATEMALA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM ON WEDNESDAY. THROUGH THURSDAY
THIS DECREASES TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. OVER
YUCATAN-BELIZE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
OVER WESTERN-CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM ON
WEDNESDAY...INCREASING TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM ON
THURSDAY. OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS THE FRONTAL NORTHERLIES ARE TO
FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON 35-70MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
150-200MM/DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ACROSS EASTERN NICARAGUA
SHEAR LINE CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...WHILE OVER COSTA RICA
EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM LATER
ON WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE ON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. ACROSS JAMAICA THE
PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE WILL SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.

DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CONTINENTAL TROUGH...AT 500 HPA...A HIGH NEAR
30N 60W IS TO ANCHOR A BROAD CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN-CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC. EARLY IN THE CYCLE THE RIDGE
WILL BRANCH ACROSS CUBA TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA. BUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH LIFTS OVER THIS
RIDGE...PORTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN/NEARLY COLLAPSE. MEANWHILE...THIS IS TO FAVOR A STRONG
TRADE WINDS CAP ACROSS YUCATAN-BELIZE-GUATEMALA-NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA-CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS.

A TUTT LOW BOUNDS THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS RIDGE. EARLY IN THE
CYCLE THE CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO RETROGRESS ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON
WEDNESDAY...STALLING NEAR JAMAICA ON THURSDAY. AS IT REMAINS CUT
OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW...THE LOW/TROUGH WILL THEN START TO
WEAKEN/GRADUALLY FILL. AT LOW LEVELS THIS SUSTAINS AN INDUCED
TROUGH IN THE EASTERLY TRADES...WITH AXIS NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. LATER TODAY THIS IS TO MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO-NORTHERN
VENEZUELA... ENTERING EASTERN HISPANIOLA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE MERGES WITH THE INDUCED PREFRONTAL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AS IT MEANDERS OVER PUERTO
RICO/VIRGIN ISLES THIS IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.
AS IT MOVES TO HISPANIOLA ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. ACROSS JAMAICA THIS IS TO
THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM ON
THURSDAY.

THE TROUGH IS TO ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA-NORTHERN COLOMBIA EARLY IN THE CYCLE...TO RESULT IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. THROUGH
THURSDAY THIS DECREASES TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. OVER
THE EJE CAFETERO TO THE NORTHWEST OF COLOMBIA EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM ON
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...DECREASING THROUGH THURSDAY TO 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. OVER PANAMA...ITCZ RELATED CONVERGENCE WILL
FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ACTIVITY INCREASES TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ON
WEDNESDAY AS ENHANCED BY THE TUTT ALOFT. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA/BOCAS DEL TORO ON THURSDAY...WHERE
SHEAR LINE CONVERGENCE WILL SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES/TRADE WIND SURGES FROM 00 UTC:
INITIAL 24    36    48    60    72    84    96    TYPE     SOF
NONE

SERNA...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
TEJADA...AAC (PANAMA)
DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)     
$$