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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Burlington, VT (BTV)

FXUS61 KBTV 211832

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
232 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Slow-moving low pressure will pass south of New England tonight,
spreading clouds and periods of light snow overnight across 
southeastern Vermont. Any accumulations will be light, with a 
dusting to an inch possible in the Connecticut River Valley. 
High pressure will otherwise bring mainly dry weather over the 
next 5 to 7 days. Temperatures will be near to slightly below 
normal through the first half of the weekend, before moderating 
above normal into the early to mid portion of next week. 


As of 152 PM EDT Wednesday...Relatively quiet period of weather
with just south-central VT feeling the fringe effects of
offshore low with periods of light snow possible tonight. 
Snow amounts of a dusting to one inch are expected in Windsor 
county VT, with little or no accumulation elsewhere. 

Afternoon 2-m dewpoints are only in the teens across the North 
Country, with dry northerly trajectories from strong sfc 
anticyclone across wrn Quebec and northern Ontario. This dry
northerly airstream will preclude much of a northward push of
snowfall into our forecast area, despite the ongoing mid-upper
level overcast. 

Good model consensus, including high-resolution NWP suite, on
sfc low track just south of 40N 70W benchmark around 09Z/Thu, 
and eventually out to sea south of Nova Scotia during the day on
Thursday. Seeing just some potential light snow on far nwrn 
fringe of precipitation shield reaching into Windsor Co. and 
the srn Greens along the U.S. Route 4 corridor, mainly 06-12Z. 
Any impact will be minimal, with snow accumulations only a
dusting to an inch possible. Elsewhere, will see a mid-high
level overcast, except some partially clear periods across far
nrn NY. With this in mind, should see lows in the teens across
nrn NY, but in the 23-27F range across VT with clouds mitigating
radiative cooling. Winds overnight will generally remain
northerly at 5-9mph, except locally NE in the St. Lawrence

Will see somewhat stronger daytime winds on Thursday with 
steepening lapse rates and moderate p-gradient on back side of 
departing low south of Nova Scotia. Should see winds N winds 
10-15mph, with gusts 20-25 mph during the afternoon hrs with 
best mixing. Daytime highs on Thursday generally 34-38F with 
variably cloudy skies, and a few mountain flurries. 

A weak mid-level trough in WNW flow will settle to our south 
and west across wrn/central NY during Thursday night. May see 
some increasing clouds across nrn NY with 20-30% chance of snow 
showers in the Adirondacks. Again, limited low-level moisture, 
so little or no accumulation forecast. Lows Thursday night 
mainly in the low-mid 20s. 


As of 137 AM EDT Wednesday...No big changes for the short term
time period. Low pressure system will be exiting to the East,
and we will still be under cyclonic flow so maybe a few mountain
snow showers around Thursday night. Upper level trough will also
still be anchored over our region. Pretty quiet weather for
Friday as well, and temperatures will be right around seasonal
normals during this time period.


As of 249 AM EDT Wednesday...Quiet weather continues from Friday
night through the beginning of next week. Upper level trough
will remain over the North country through the weekend, and
ridge of surface high pressure builds from the North.
Temperatures will slowly warm through the period, a couple
degrees each day. Surface high will finally begin to slide
eastward offshore Tuesday, and southwesterly return flow will
help to raise temps above seasonal normals headed into the
middle of next week.


Through 18z Thursday...High pressure to the north across
Ontario/wrn Quebec will maintain mainly VFR ceilings, even as
slow-moving low pressure passes south of New England overnight.
May see MVFR light snow reach KRUT during the pre-dawn hours 
before improving back to VFR after daybreak Thursday. Winds 
generally N 5-10kts overnight, except locally NE 5-10kt at KMSS.
On Thursday, winds will increase with moderate p-gradient in 
place. Looking for N to NNE winds 10-15kt with gusts 18-22kt 
(highest at MPV/BTV) during the afternoon hours.


Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.




NEAR TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Neiles