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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX (BRO)

FXUS64 KBRO 230849

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
349 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): A zonal mid-level flow will 
persist over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the 
forecast period with some slight 500 mb ridging over the region from 
around sunset Saturday to around sunset Sunday. This pattern, and 
relatively low available atmospheric moisture, will produce dry 
weather for the BRO CWFA for the weekend. With no cold front 
passages likely and a persistent, breezy onshore flow prevailing, 
near normal daytime high and overnight low temperatures are also 

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday): Early week will see the
departure of the initial trough and gradual increase of a ridge
across the Four Corners region. A final wave just ahead of the
building ridge will sweep across north Texas Monday, coming to a
halt in the vicinity Monday night. The remnants of the front may
provide just enough lift to spark some showers Monday night into
Tuesday morning. The ridge behind this front quickly drops into
the Southeastern US Tuesday night, promptly switching winds back
to the southeast, slowly bringing Gulf moisture back northward.
After a brief lowering of temps Tuesday with highs near 80, the
warming trend returns Wednesday with highs in the lower 80s, and
the mid to upper 80s Thursday and Friday. Long range models
starting to note another cold front moving into south Texas on
Saturday, with another cooldown expected, along with a chance for


Now through Sunday: Buoy 42020 reported southeast winds around 14
knots gusting to around 16 knots with seas slightly over 2.5 feet
with a period of 5 seconds at 250 CDT/750 UTC. Winds over the 
Laguna Madre today and tomorrow may be strong enough to warrant a 
Small Craft Exercise Caution. Otherwise, generally moderate winds 
and seas will affect the Lower Texas Coast with Small Craft 
Advisory not likely to be needed. 

Monday through Wednesday: Southeast flow continues across the
northwest Gulf, with modest breezes expected. Lighter winds Monday
night ahead of the next front will allow seas to drop to near 2
feet into Tuesday morning. The front stalls in the vicinity
Tuesday morning, with a modest wind shift from the northeast,
which will slightly increase seas to 3 feet. Modest onshore flow
continues into midweek.


BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  67  78  68 /   0   0   0  10 
BROWNSVILLE          80  68  80  68 /   0   0   0  10 
HARLINGEN            80  66  81  67 /   0   0   0  10 
MCALLEN              82  68  84  69 /   0   0   0  10 
RIO GRANDE CITY      83  66  87  67 /   0   0   0  10 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   73  67  74  67 /   0   0   0  10 




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