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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX (BRO)

                            
831 
FXUS64 KBRO 171735 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1235 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Nearly clear skies across the region today, with only
a few clouds sweeping inland along the diffuse seabreeze. Winds
will remain 15 knots during the afternoon, with a few gusts of 20
to 25 knots. Winds relax areawide overnight, dropping to 5 knots
or less. Ground should be thoroughly dried today to preclude
shallow ground fog at the airport, which was noted this morning
here at KBRO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Some minor changes made to the previous set of TAFs
but the story remains the same. VFR will prevail through the next
24 hours with surface winds rapidly becoming breezy today and
diminishing around sunset. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018/ 

SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Broad 500 mb high pressure 
centered over the Desert Southwest will remain extended over Deep 
South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period. Dry weather 
with limited cloud cover will be the result of this synoptic 
pattern. Well above normal daytime high and overnight low 
temperatures are also anticipated, which will help to exacerbate 
worsening drought conditions across the BRO CWFA less than two 
months after record rainfall and flooding. 

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday): Hot and generally 
rain free conditions will continue through the period with high 
pressure in control. Rain chances will remain low through the 
long term but can't rule out isolated sea breeze convection each
afternoon. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal 
through Thursday. High temperatures each day will generally range
from the low 90s near the coast, mid to upper 90s inland and the 
triple digits in the mid to upper Valley under a mix of sun and
clouds. Temperatures may drop a few degrees next week with 
possible increasing cloud cover. Overnight low temperatures will 
generally be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Heat index values will
range between 105-109 degrees each afternoon across much of the 
deep south Texas. 

MARINE (Now through Saturday): Newly-restored Buoy 42020 reported 
south-southeast winds around 14 knots gusting to around 16 knots 
with seas of 3 feet with a period of 6 seconds at 150 CDT/650 UTC. 
The modest interaction between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico 
and thermal low pressure inland within Mexico will produce generally 
moderate winds and low to moderate seas along the Lower Texas Coast 
during the period. 

Saturday night through Tuesday night: High pressure across the
Gulf and lower pressure inland will support generally moderate 
winds and seas through period. The gradient will strengthen by 
late in the weekend with small craft exercise caution conditions 
likely on the Laguna Madre and possibly across the Gulf of Mexico 
waters on Sunday and Monday. Small Craft Advisories across the 
bays and near shore waters cannot be ruled out through early next
week. 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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