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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX (BRO)

                            
694 
FXUS64 KBRO 171941
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
241 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): H5 ridge remains 
anchored across the Desert Southwest, extending across the 
southern half of Texas. Inverted trough remains stationary across
the central Gulf, bottling up main moisture well offshore. PW 
values remain at of below normal for the region through the short 
term period, so rain chances are slim to nil, focusing more 
offshore, with minimal cloud cover expected day or night. Some 
brief low clouds may briefly form around sunrise across the 
northwestern Ranchlands, but will burn off quickly after sunrise 
tomorrow. Breezes will increase during the afternoon hours, but 
will do little to cool the region. Highs will again jump into the
upper 90s and low 100s. 

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday): Hot (above average) and 
generally rain free conditions will continue Sunday and Monday, 
with mid level ridging and surface high pressure in control. Rain 
chances will remain low through much to most of the long term, 
but can't rule out isolated sea breeze convection each afternoon.
Temperatures will remain above normal. High temperatures will 
generally range from the lower 90s near the coast, to the mid and 
upper 90s inland, to triple digits across the mid to upper valley 
under a mix of clouds and sun. Temperatures may ease slightly by 
the middle of next week with possible increasing cloud cover and 
sea breeze potential. Overnight low temperatures will generally 
be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Heat index values will range 
between 105-109 degrees Sunday and Monday afternoons across much 
of the CWA, and slightly less thereafter.

&&

.MARINE:
Now through Saturday night: Winds will remain lighter across the 
open Gulf waters today, with slightly higher winds reaching the 
Laguna Madre. Winds will decrease for all waters tonight, before 
rising again for the Laguna during the day Sunday. Lighter winds 
have kept seas low, and will continue at or below 2 feet through 
the short term period. A passing shower is not out of the question
for the far offshore waters, but will be very isolated and brief 
in nature.

Sunday through Wednesday night: Lower pressure over the plains will 
interact with Gulf high pressure to keep the gradient slightly 
tighter Sunday into Sunday night. As a result, moderate to fresh 
southeast to south winds Sunday and Sunday night may require small 
craft should exercise caution headlines. Seas will remain moderate. 
The gradient will relax Monday and beyond as the plains low pressure 
system moves east and lower pressures rise. Light to moderate 
southeast to south winds and low to moderate seas will subsequently 
prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  92  79  93 /   0   0  10  10 
BROWNSVILLE          79  96  79  94 /   0   0   0  10 
HARLINGEN            78 100  78  98 /   0   0  10  10 
MCALLEN              79 102  78 100 /   0   0   0   0 
RIO GRANDE CITY      78 104  78 104 /   0   0   0   0 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  89  80  90 /   0   0  10  10 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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