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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX (BRO)

FXUS64 KBRO 160024 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
624 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Flight conditions will remain poor the next 24 hours
as a surface low pressure system remains along the coast. Low
ceilings and fog will persist with IFR to LIFR conditions likely
and possibly down to VLIFR at times if any denser fog manages to
develop early Wednesday morning. Light rain will also continue,
but should improve Wednesday afternoon as the disturbance weakens.
Ceilings are expected to rise from west to east and may rise to 
MVFR towards the end of the period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA/ 

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night):
Persistent low clouds and fog likely to be maintained through
tonight as marine layer and drainage damming is being augmented by
southern branch flow from the Pacific. A wind shift to a westerly
wind in the pre-dawn hours should bring a clearing of the rain
from west to east with rain ending over land areas Wednesday
morning. This will allow for better warming Wednesday and milder
Wednesday night. 

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday):
Models have been consistent in showing a strong surge of polar air
diving southward through the southern Plains into the Lower Rio
Grande Valley Saturday. This strong front will likely be
accompanied by thunderstorms Saturday morning. Arctic air in the
northern tier of states becomes tapped and drawn southward Sunday
for bitterly cold weather in the interior portions of the nation
and dropping lows into the lower 40s in the LRGV Sunday morning.
Spline of high pressure ridge moves east Monday to bring some
moderation but may be contending with renewed cold air damming for
much of Monday before flushing out later in the day Monday into
Monday night. Flow pattern become southerly on return flow pattern
Tuesday for a brief warming trend ahead of yet another strong cold
frontal passage Tuesday night. 

Relatively light to moderate easterly flow is noted currently and
should maintain through Thursday before veering to southerly flow
Friday ahead of approaching cold front. Gale conditions and very
rough seas likely to result as strong cold air advection moves 
off the coast Saturday through Saturday evening before advection 
abates Saturday night. 




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