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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX (BRO)

FXUS64 KBRO 251736 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1236 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...MVFR stratocumulus deck has been stubborn to rise or
scatter out this morning, but guidance and obs trends indicate
that this should occur within the next couple of hours. Winds 
back and slacken overnight as a modest frontal boundary sags 
southward toward the RGV. Pretty robust signal in the statistical 
guidance for at least a few hours of IFR conditions (fog/mist 
and/or low CIG's) late tonight/early Tuesday morning, so have 
introduced TEMPO groups for this at all three terminals. 
Eventually, NE winds behind the front should increase to the point
where MVFR conditions return by mid-morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 455 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Cloud cover continues to spread northward across the
region, hovering right around 2000 feet. Further cig lowerings 
are not expected through sunrise before gradual increases and 
thinning of the deck late this morning. Southeast winds are 
expected to reach 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon. A return of
low cigs and some visibility decreases are expected overnight
again tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019/ 

SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Building H5 ridge to the west 
will help push a trough and cold front southward across Texas today. 
Modest southeast flow will again help produce warm temperatures in 
the region, with highs again reaching the mid to upper 80s. The 
weakening front drifts into the region after midnight tonight, with 
enough surface focus for a few showers to form as it drifts south. 
The fronts slows to a crawl on Tuesday, pulling up right along the 
river. This will provide a focus for a few more showers during the 
day, but moisture remains limited and shallow, so not much more than 
a few showers is expected. Increased cloud cover and northeast flow 
behind the front will hold temps only in the upper 70s for  most 
areas Tuesday afternoon.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday): A fairly lethargic
weather pattern will dominate through the vast majority of the
long term portion of the forecast courtesy of 500 mb ridging
building north out of Mexico and over the BRO CWFA. A slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms does exist, however, for
Tuesday night through Wednesday morning due to the presence of a
cold front mentioned above in the short term forecast discussion.
A much more robust opportunity for showers/thunderstorms exists
for Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning due to the tandem
approach and passage of a cold front and 500 mb trough. Although
cooler temperatures will prevail in the wake of this cold front,
warm and near normal temperatures are expected in advance of this

MARINE (Now through Tuesday): Modest southeast flow expected today 
will remain around 10 knots through the afternoon. This keeps seas 
generally 2 to 3 feet. The weak front drifts into the region later 
tonight, gradually shifting winds from the northeast. The highest 
winds don't arrive until Tuesday afternoon, and only reach 10 to 15 
knots at their peak. Seas will increase slightly to around 4 feet 
Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday Night through Sunday: The passage of a cold front through
the Lower Texas Coast Saturday night will produce Small Craft
Advisory winds and/or seas at that time and through Sunday. Small
Craft Exercise Caution may affect the lower Texas coastal waters
prior to the cold front, mainly Wednesday night through Friday




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