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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX (BRO)

FXUS64 KBRO 180507 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1207 AM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...VFR is expected to persist through the next 24 hours.
Light winds and a few clouds tonight will give way to breezy winds
and continued limited cloudiness on Saturday. Winds will diminish
around sunset Saturday evening. 

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 638 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Satellite images and surface observations indicate
mostly clear skies across the CWA early this evening. Expect VFR
conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande valley tonight into
early Sat morning as the 500mb across the southwest United States
and northern Mexico continues to provide subsidence across south

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 241 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018/ 
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): H5 ridge remains 
anchored across the Desert Southwest, extending across the 
southern half of Texas. Inverted trough remains stationary across 
the central Gulf, bottling up main moisture well offshore. PW 
values remain at of below normal for the region through the short 
term period, so rain chances are slim to nil, focusing more 
offshore, with minimal cloud cover expected day or night. Some 
brief low clouds may briefly form around sunrise across the 
northwestern Ranchlands, but will burn off quickly after sunrise 
tomorrow. Breezes will increase during the afternoon hours, but 
will do little to cool the region. Highs will again jump into the 
upper 90s and low 100s. 

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday): Hot (above average) and 
generally rain free conditions will continue Sunday and Monday, 
with mid level ridging and surface high pressure in control. Rain 
chances will remain low through much to most of the long term, 
but can't rule out isolated sea breeze convection each afternoon.
Temperatures will remain above normal. High temperatures will 
generally range from the lower 90s near the coast, to the mid and 
upper 90s inland, to triple digits across the mid to upper valley 
under a mix of clouds and sun. Temperatures may ease slightly by 
the middle of next week with possible increasing cloud cover and 
sea breeze potential. Overnight low temperatures will generally 
be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Heat index values will range 
between 105-109 degrees Sunday and Monday afternoons across much 
of the CWA, and slightly less thereafter.

Now through Saturday night: Winds will remain lighter across the 
open Gulf waters today, with slightly higher winds reaching the 
Laguna Madre. Winds will decrease for all waters tonight, before 
rising again for the Laguna during the day Sunday. Lighter winds 
have kept seas low, and will continue at or below 2 feet through 
the short term period. A passing shower is not out of the question
for the far offshore waters, but will be very isolated and brief 
in nature.

Sunday through Wednesday night: Lower pressure over the plains will 
interact with Gulf high pressure to keep the gradient slightly 
tighter Sunday into Sunday night. As a result, moderate to fresh 
southeast to south winds Sunday and Sunday night may require small 
craft should exercise caution headlines. Seas will remain moderate. 
The gradient will relax Monday and beyond as the plains low pressure 
system moves east and lower pressures rise. Light to moderate 
southeast to south winds and low to moderate seas will subsequently 



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