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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX (BRO)

FXUS64 KBRO 211044

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
444 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): The development of another weak 
coastal trough offshore and northeast flow over the Gulf waters has 
allowed an increase in low level moisture across the area. 
Brownsville radar currently shows a few light showers drifting north 
across the coastal waters. The trough will move north and weaken 
today, with moisture lifting north as broad high pressure builds 
into the region. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 70s 
across much of the area today. Light north winds this morning are 
expected to veer to the east then southeast by tonight. The 
combination of warm and moist air moving over the cooler shelf 
waters should allow sea fog to develop along the coast late this 
evening into tonight. Low temperatures tonight will generally be in 
the 60s with increasing clouds. Isolated showers may develop late 
tonight into Friday morning as a surface trough drifts west across 
the area. Patchy fog may linger along the coast through late Friday 
morning. High temperatures on Friday should reach the upper 70s to 
the lower 80s under mostly cloudy skies. Isolated rain showers will 
be possible inland as the surface feature continues to move west.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday): A cold front is
expected to pass through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley on Saturday. The main concern with this front will be the
potential for a slightly enhanced risk of wildfire activity in its
wake, with lowering relative humidity percentages and moderate
winds just above the surface. Although a Red Flag Warning is not
expected to be needed for Saturday due to the frontal passage, a
Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is likely to be needed. For the 
remainder of the forecast, isolated to scattered showers are 
expected for Tuesday and Wednesday as weak inverted surface 
troughiness briefly becomes established along the Lower Texas 
Coast. Temperatures will ride a roller coaster during the long 
term, with the warmest values occurring in advance of the Saturday
cold front, and more near normal values afterwards. 

.MARINE (Now through Friday): Light to moderate north to 
northeast winds and moderate seas will prevail across the lower 
Texas coastal waters today. Winds are expected to become east then
southeast tonight with broad high pressure in control. Seas 
gradually build on Friday as southeast winds slowly increase. 

Friday Night through Wednesday: The most adverse marine conditions
are expected to occur Friday night through Saturday morning due to
the approach and passage of a cold front. This timer period will
be the most likely for any necessity of Small Craft Advisory.
Afterwards, a slow improvement in winds and seas is anticipated as
high pressure becomes dominant in the wake of the cold front. 

BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  69  63  76  68 /  10  20  20   0 
BROWNSVILLE          74  64  79  69 /  10  20  20   0 
HARLINGEN            73  62  79  68 /  10  20  20   0 
MCALLEN              76  63  81  69 /  10  20  20   0 
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  62  80  66 /   0  20  20   0 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   66  63  72  66 /  10  20  20   0 



This product is also available on the web at:

Short term...Caceres-63
Long term...Tomaselli-66
Meso/Upper Air..Mejia-67