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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX (BRO)

                            
990 
FXUS64 KBRO 261735 AAC
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1235 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...A weak cold front draped across the Rio Grande Valley
has slowed down and is virtually stalled. Showers are developing 
along the front from KPIL to KHRL and just east of KMFE. The 
showers are propagating south and west. Multi-layered cloud decks
with Low VFR to MVFR prevailing with occasional IFR in the 
showers. Drier air to filter into the region late this afternoon 
and evening with ceilings expected to rise to VFR. Some low level 
moisture may remain in the vicinity of KMFE with MVFR cigs 
redeveloping after midnight. VFR conditions are expected for the 
entire area Wednesday. Light northeast to east flow today veer 
east to southeast overnight. 


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 916 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...Cold front is limping through the CWA this morning
with a few light showers and not much cold air. Inherited forecast
highs were only 2 to 5 degrees away from 8 am observed 
temperatures. Decided to increase high temps for today across the 
entire area with very limited to no cold air advection and models
guidance indicating warmer temperatures with cloud deck not all
that low. Light northeast to east winds and the bkn to ovc skies 
should keep the region temperate with highs nearing seasonal 
normals. No change in the rain forecast with morning sounding
showing limited moisture and cape. A few short duration showers
have been popping up this morning and this trend should continue
through the morning and afternoon with a south to southwest
propagation along and ahead of the weakening front. Can not rule
out a brief weak thunderstorm that may produce moderate rainfall.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 617 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Front continues to sweep through the region, with
variable lower cloud decks trying to form up. Most areas will
remain sct or better through the rest of the morning, with tempo
cigs at 700 feet or so and vis down to 1sm through midmorning.
Cigs rise later this morning, but lingering front in the area will
keep a small chance for a shower going into this afternoon, but
any showers will be brief and cause minimal restrictions locally.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 431 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019/ 

SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Front continues to slowly drift 
southward across south Texas, and is still timed to get close to the 
river later this morning. Some moisture pooling just ahead of the 
front may briefly bring some lower vis from fog, but this will 
likely be limited to the northern zones just ahead of the front. 
Shower activity has been minimal so far on the front, but is 
expected to pick up a bit around midday with the increase in daytime 
heating. Increased cloud cover and northeast flow will hold temps 
back slightly from yesterday, only reaching the mid 70s. Cloud cover 
stays in place across the area tonight, with lows falling to around 
60. Enough drier air moves in behind the front to hold off of fog 
formation tonight, except maybe the coastal areas of the King Ranch. 
High pressure moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, 
allowing winds to shift back from the southeast during the day as 
the front washes out. This allows temps to rebound back to near 80, 
especially near the coast where more breaks in the cloud cover are 
expected.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): The main event in
this portion of the overall forecast continues to be the approach
and passage of a tandem of a surface cold front and a 500 mb
trough through the BRO CWFA during the weekend. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are anticipated Saturday night through Sunday, 
with this convection transitioning to light rain for Sunday night 
and Monday as a brief overrunning situation briefly prevails in 
the wake of the front/trough combination. Before the initiation of
the convection Saturday night, 500 mb ridging over Deep South 
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will produce dry weather. Below 
normal temperatures are likely in the wake of the cold front, with
more near normal values expected in advance of the boundary. 

MARINE (Now through Wednesday): A little more agitation across the 
marine areas during the next 36 hours as a weak cold front moves 
through the region. Winds will not rise much behind the front, 
turning from the northeast in the 10 to 15 knot range. The northeast 
fetch along the coast will nudge wave swells up to near 4 feet for 
all Gulf waters through the period. High pressure moves east 
tonight, switching winds back from the southeast, but remaining 
light into Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Monday: The passage of a cold front
through the Lower Texas Coast late Saturday night through the
early pre-dawn hours of Sunday morning will produce borderline
Small Craft Advisory conditions Sunday and Monday. Ahead of the
front, Small Craft Exercise Caution may be needed for portions or
all of the lower Texas coastal waters Wednesday night through
Saturday. 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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59...Aviation