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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX (BRO)

FXUS64 KBRO 121135 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
635 AM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Mainly VFR TAFs with spotty MVFR ceilings possible.
Satellite shows mid and high clouds over the area. Local obs show
low level cloudiness as well. High pressure is in control over 
the west Gulf, with mid level ridging over the central Gulf. Will 
see moderate southeast winds become breezy and gusty this aftn, 
with broken to overcast skies. Ceilings will be mostly above 3 
kft, but MVFR could develop at times. Forecast soundings show a 
bit of an inversion developing later today. 


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 411 AM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018/ 

SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Ridging over the north 
central Gulf and surface high pressure over the west Gulf will 
remain in place today. A weak boundary extends across south central 
Texas toward the Coastal Bend. Not much there to signal its presence 
except a weak surface convergence zone. Gulf convection is weaker 
this morning, with less activity currently on radar. The models 
suggest that convection may fire along the weak upstream boundary 
today, and as such, except for a few cells over the Lower Valley, 
showers and thunderstorms today will be focused across the Upper 
Valley, where the tail end of the boundary lies. Moderate to breezy 
southeast winds will develop today across eastern sections, with 
partly to mostly cloudy skies, a combination of high clouds moving 
in from the west and low clouds supported by lots of low level 
moisture. Precipitable water values will again be near two inches 
today. The front will retreat north after today as regional ridging 
and high pressure remain dominant. The weather will then trend 
popless and warmer. Highs will be in the 90s today. Coastal temps 
will remain stable on Monday, but interior high temperatures will 
move higher by a couple to a few degrees, to near the century mark. 
Heat index values today will be 100 to 105, and tomorrow might be a 
skosh higher, but drier air will take over out west, so that will 
tend to counteract higher heat index values. Overnight low temps 
will range from 75 to 80.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday): As opposed to 24 hours
ago, when the long term portion of the forecast was completely
devoid of any precipitation, this forecast cycle actually contains
isolated convection. Specifically, a 20 percent chance of showers
is anticipated over the adjacent coastal waters of Deep South Texas
and the Rio Grande Valley Thursday night through Saturday due to 
the slow westward movement of a weak inverted 500 mb trough over 
the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf of Mexico. For the inland
area through the entirety of the forecast, however, dry weather
will prevail due to the continued influence of mid-level high
pressure. The presence of the high, limited cloud cover, and no
rain inland will ensure temperatures remain at above normal levels
throughout the entire long term portion of the forecast. 

MARINE (Now through Monday): Moderate to fresh southeast winds 
and moderate seas will prevail through Monday night with high 
pressure in control. Small craft should exercise caution headlines
will be displayed in the coastal waters forecast for today, and 
will likely be needed tonight and Monday as well.

Monday Night through Saturday: Broad high pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico will interact with thermal low pressure over inland Mexico
during the period, producing breezy winds and generally moderate
seas along the Lower Texas Coast. Although Small Craft Advisories
are not expected at this time, Small Craft Exercise Caution is
likely daily for the Laguna Madre and for portions or all of the
Gulf of Mexico waters Monday night through Tuesday night.




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