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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX (BRO)

FXUS64 KBRO 250847

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
347 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): Unlike the past couple of 
nights, KBRO Doppler radar is devoid of any convection along the 
Lower Texas Coast. This might be a harbinger of what's to come 
across the entire BRO CWFA during the forecast period, as a 500 mb 
ridge of high pressure is expected to build north out of Mexico 
while closed 500 mb low pressure develops over the north-central 
Gulf of Mexico. This scenario will produce a mid-level flow 
increasingly from the north over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande 
Valley, leading to dry weather during the short term portion of the 
forecast. Meanwhile, a record high temperature was tied at McAllen 
Miller International Airport on Thursday, and with the previously 
mentioned synoptic pattern setting up, there is no reason to believe 
that above normal temperatures won't continue across the forecast 

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday):
Negligible changes in the ongoing extended forecast as models
continue to show the dominance of the midlevel ridge aloft. This
will continue to draw dry air across the region, keeping the
atmosphere stable, with mostly clear skies and heat index value
peaking around 105 each afternoon. 


Now through Saturday: Buoy 42020 reported southeast winds around 
8 knots gusting to around 10 knots with seas slightly under 2.5 
feet with a period of 6 seconds at 250 CDT/750 UTC. Persistent 
high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico will continue to 
produce light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas along the
Lower Texas Coast during the period, with Small Craft Exercise 
Caution and Small Craft Advisory not likely to be needed. A 
surface area of low pressure will begin to organize near the 
Yucatan Peninsula, but it is not expected to be of any threat to 
the Lower Texas Coast. 

Sunday through Tuesday: High pressure across the northwest Gulf
will keep light winds and seas going into the middle of next week.
Seas will generally remain 2 feet or less, with minimal chop on
the Laguna.


BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  89  77  91  73 /   0   0   0   0 
BROWNSVILLE          94  76  94  74 /   0   0   0   0 
HARLINGEN            96  75  96  73 /   0   0   0   0 
MCALLEN              99  77 100  74 /   0   0   0   0 
RIO GRANDE CITY      99  76 101  73 /   0   0   0   0 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  78  84  77 /   0   0   0   0 




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