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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX (BRO)

FXUS64 KBRO 260550 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1250 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest /06z/ aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Somewhat same stuff...different night. As with the
past few overnights...MVFR ceilings have re-formed across all
Valley terminals, and with expected moderate east/southeast to
southeast flow and trapped moisture at the inversion base expect
them to continue through the night and into mid morning, along
with a low end fresh southeast breeze (10-12 knots or so). 

As mentioned in prior discussions...a pocket of very dry air
thickens and descends this afternoon with layer humidity below 10
percent extending from ~25,000 feet down to ~2000 feet in the
Harlingen/Brownsville area, and down to ~4000 feet near McAllen.
The situation has all the earmarks of rapid erosion of the
MVFR/low VFR cumulus by early afternoon, and added another group
for SKC conditions through early evening. Inversion will setup at
some point Sunday evening but timing of cloud development looks a
bit later than in recent only have FEW MVFR clouds
after 9 PM or so. 

Winds will continue to follow their recent diurnal speed/direction
trend: Quick increase from the southeast near 20 knots with gusts
in the 25 to 28 knot range by 10 AM or so, continuing through just
after sunset before laying down a bit. Direction should back
toward the east-southeast after 4 PM or so. 




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