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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX (BRO)

FXUS64 KBRO 181742 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1242 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...SCT CU field bubbling around the lower valley
currently, but will not thicken further through the afternoon.
Southeast winds have begun to rise, and should remain 15G20kts
through the day. Decreasing winds will arrive after sunset, with
light winds overnight. Winds are expected to be higher at local
airports tomorrow, with sustained winds near 20 knots during the 


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 612 AM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Very few adjustments needed to the previous set of
TAFs. VFR will prevail through the next 24 hours with limited
cloud cover and generally moderate to breezy surface winds. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 AM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018/ 

SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Broad 500 mb high pressure 
centered over the Desert Southwest will continue to remain extended 
over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the forecast 
period. Dry weather with limited cloud cover will be the result of 
this synoptic pattern. Well above normal daytime high and overnight 
low temperatures are also anticipated, which will help to exacerbate 
worsening drought conditions across the BRO CWFA. 

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday): Hot and rain free 
conditions will continue through Monday with high pressure aloft 
and at surface in control. Rain chances will remain low through 
much to most of the long term, but can't rule out isolated sea 
breeze convection each afternoon. Temperatures will remain above 
normal through the period. High temperatures expected to range 
from the lower 90s near the coast, to the mid and upper 90s 
inland, to triple digits across the mid to upper valley under a 
mix of clouds and sun. Temperatures may ease slightly by the 
middle of next week with possible increasing cloud cover and sea 
breeze potential. Overnight low temperatures will generally be in 
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Heat index values will range between 
105-109 degrees each afternoon across much of the deep south 

MARINE (Now through Sunday): Buoy 42020 reported south-southeast
winds around 14 knots gusting to around 16 knots with seas 
slightly over 2.5 feet with a period of 4 seconds at 250 CDT/750 
UTC. Increasingly adverse marine conditions are expected along the
Lower Texas Coast as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico begins
to interact more intensely with thermal low pressure inland over 
Mexico. Slightly building moderate seas are expected, with winds 
reaching into Small Craft Exercise Caution or Small Craft Advisory
criteria, especially on Sunday.

Sunday night through Wednesday night: Lower pressure across Texas
interacting with Gulf high pressure will support moderate to
strong southeast to south winds and moderate seas through Sunday 
night. Small craft should exercise caution headlines may be needed
through Sunday night. The gradient begins to relax and will 
remain weak through the period as high pressure spreads across 
the Gulf. Light to moderate southeast to south winds and low to 
moderate seas will continue through the period. 




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