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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX (BRO)

FXUS64 KBRO 210532 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1232 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...A few light showers can be seen on local radar
drifting away from MFE and HRL toward the north and northeast. Not
expecting any redevelopment upstream, with a small-scale high-
pressure cell analyzed over Deep South Texas. As broader high 
pressure settles over Texas and nudges toward the western Gulf,
drier air will move in at the surface, as well as veer winds to 
the ESE by Thursday evening and keep skies VFR.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 653 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...Will allow for the Rip current and Coastal Flood 
statements to expire at 7 pm. Rip current threat will still be
elevated tonight and likely to remain at least in the moderate
threat risk for Thursday before swells temporarily relax for

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Still some patchy light rain continues to drift north
through the RGV with a mix of MVFR to VFR ceiling. MVFR to short
duration IFR is possible with the passing rain. Outside of the 
rain ceilings lift to VFR. Rain chances are indicated to diminish
along the coast tonight into Thursday with KMFE and western areas
of the forecast area to have higher rain chances through at least
Thursday morning, thus higher probabilities of lower ceilings 
(MVFR) are likely. Northeast winds to remain light. 

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest marine discussion below.

MARINE...Cancelled the SCA for the far offshore waters earlier
and seas continues to slowly subside. Exercise caution wording
covers for the the evening and possibly linger overnight. The
remainder of the coastal waters will experience light northeast
wind and slight to moderate seas. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019/ 

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): A weak inverted
trough continues to produce overcast skies, light 
rainfall/drizzle and reduced visibilities across the region. This 
surface trough will slowly decay tonight as a weak cold front 
pushes southward down into central Texas. This front is not 
expected to make it into or across deep south Texas. The moisture 
and showers will gradually diminish and shift to the west during 
the overnight and into early Thursday morning. Winds will diminish
in speed and temporarily shift northeasterly overnight ahead of 
that front.

Thursday is expected to remain on the mostly cloudy side but some 
sun should finally peek through at times across the region as the 
front positioned to the north fades away and a small surface high 
pressure system settles over the area. Winds will become easterly 
during the day before turning southeasterly Thursday night. High 
temperatures will trend warmer but still below normal by about 4
to 8 degrees.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): A short wave ridge axis
will reside over the region on Friday. This, plus a surface high
will cause a few breaks in the clouds. Onshore flow will still be
present, though it will remain rather light. There is a QPF signal
across northern Mexico that looks to be orographic or differential
heating induced. We'll need to watch and see if this activity
develops and drifts across the western portions of the forecast
area late in the day Friday. 

On Saturday a cold front and parent wave slide southward into
northern Texas. The trough will eventually push northeast away
from the region, however, the front will still reside across the
state. There is a QPF signal across the area on Saturday. This
coupled with increasing instability will lead to possible
thundershower activity. 

Another, much stronger wave will dig southward across the eastern
states. This will send a cold front through the region on Tuesday.
This will be the focus for a few showers or maybe a thunderstorms
late Monday or Tuesday. Temperatures will gradually increase prior
to the front and then drop off again behind the front. The overall
pattern will change by the end of the period as a dry 
northwesterly flow sets up across the region. 

MARINE (Tonight through Thursday Night): Buoy 42020 is reporting
modest easterly winds of around 10 to 15 knots with waves 
subsiding to around 5.5 feet. Waves will continue to gradually 
diminish into tonight with low to moderate seas expected on 
Thursday under light to modest east-northeasterly winds. A Small 
Craft Advisory remains across the offshore waters from 20 to 60 nm
until 7 pm but this may be trimmed later this afternoon given the
latest trends. Due to the tidal influences of tonight's super- 
moon, a coastal flood statement was hoisted until 8 pm tonight to 
account for this afternoon's high tide as the waterline could 
reach the dunes. 

(Friday through Wednesday): Generally tranquil conditions expected
across the marine areas of Deep South Texas through much of the
long term as the easterly fetch finally breaks down in the short
term. That said, a cold frontal boundary is expected to push
through the region late Monday and Tuesday, which will likely lead
to building winds and seas. At this point, expect cautionary
wording, however, SCA conditions certainly will be possible by
midweek next week. 




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